Online Predictive Optimization Framework for Stochastic Demand-Responsive Transit Services

This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the service, we use Quantile Regression to estimate the marginal distribution of movement counts between each pair of serviced locations. The framework then combines these marginals into a joint demand distribution by constructing a Gaussian copula, which captures the structure of correlation between the marginals. For supply optimization, we devise a linear programming model, which simultaneously determines the route structure and the service frequency according to the predicted demand. Importantly, our framework both preserves the uncertainty structure of future demand and leverages this for robust route optimization, while keeping both components decoupled. We evaluate our framework using a real-world case study of autonomous mobility in a university campus in Denmark. The results show that our framework often obtains the ground truth optimal solution, and can outperform conventional methods for route optimization, which do not leverage full predictive distributions.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 5 table

Optimizing flow rates in a queueing network with side constraints

Network Analysis;operations research

Markov Decision Processes with Applications in Wireless Sensor Networks: A Survey

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) consist of autonomous and resource-limited devices. The devices cooperate to monitor one or more physical phenomena within an area of interest. WSNs operate as stochastic systems because of randomness in the monitored environments. For long service time and low maintenance cost, WSNs require adaptive and robust methods to address data exchange, topology formulation, resource and power optimization, sensing coverage and object detection, and security challenges. In these problems, sensor nodes are to make optimized decisions from a set of accessible strategies to achieve design goals. This survey reviews numerous applications of the Markov decision process (MDP) framework, a powerful decision-making tool to develop adaptive algorithms and protocols for WSNs. Furthermore, various solution methods are discussed and compared to serve as a guide for using MDPs in WSNs

Convexity and Robustness of Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Freeway Network Control

We study the use of the System Optimum (SO) Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) problem to design optimal traffic flow controls for freeway networks as modeled by the Cell Transmission Model, using variable speed limit, ramp metering, and routing. We consider two optimal control problems: the DTA problem, where turning ratios are part of the control inputs, and the Freeway Network Control (FNC), where turning ratios are instead assigned exogenous parameters. It is known that relaxation of the supply and demand constraints in the cell-based formulations of the DTA problem results in a linear program. However, solutions to the relaxed problem can be infeasible with respect to traffic dynamics. Previous work has shown that such solutions can be made feasible by proper choice of ramp metering and variable speed limit control for specific traffic networks. We extend this procedure to arbitrary networks and provide insight into the structure and robustness of the proposed optimal controllers. For a network consisting only of ordinary, merge, and diverge junctions, where the cells have linear demand functions and affine supply functions with identical slopes, and the cost is the total traffic volume, we show, using the maximum principle, that variable speed limits are not needed in order to achieve optimality in the FNC problem, and ramp metering is sufficient. We also prove bounds on perturbation of the controlled system trajectory in terms of perturbations in initial traffic volume and exogenous inflows. These bounds, which leverage monotonicity properties of the controlled trajectory, are shown to be in close agreement with numerical simulation results