Probabilistic Model-Based Safety Analysis

Model-based safety analysis approaches aim at finding critical failure combinations by analysis of models of the whole system (i.e. software, hardware, failure modes and environment). The advantage of these methods compared to traditional approaches is that the analysis of the whole system gives more precise results. Only few model-based approaches have been applied to answer quantitative questions in safety analysis, often limited to analysis of specific failure propagation models, limited types of failure modes or without system dynamics and behavior, as direct quantitative analysis is uses large amounts of computing resources. New achievements in the domain of (probabilistic) model-checking now allow for overcoming this problem. This paper shows how functional models based on synchronous parallel semantics, which can be used for system design, implementation and qualitative safety analysis, can be directly re-used for (model-based) quantitative safety analysis. Accurate modeling of different types of probabilistic failure occurrence is shown as well as accurate interpretation of the results of the analysis. This allows for reliable and expressive assessment of the safety of a system in early design stages

Reliability models applicable to space telescope solar array assembly system

A complex system may consist of a number of subsystems with several components in series, parallel, or combination of both series and parallel. In order to predict how well the system will perform, it is necessary to know the reliabilities of the subsystems and the reliability of the whole system. The objective of the present study is to develop mathematical models of the reliability which are applicable to complex systems. The models are determined by assuming k failures out of n components in a subsystem. By taking k = 1 and k = n, these models reduce to parallel and series models; hence, the models can be specialized to parallel, series combination systems. The models are developed by assuming the failure rates of the components as functions of time and as such, can be applied to processes with or without aging effects. The reliability models are further specialized to Space Telescope Solar Arrray (STSA) System. The STSA consists of 20 identical solar panel assemblies (SPA's). The reliabilities of the SPA's are determined by the reliabilities of solar cell strings, interconnects, and diodes. The estimates of the reliability of the system for one to five years are calculated by using the reliability estimates of solar cells and interconnects given n ESA documents. Aging effects in relation to breaks in interconnects are discussed

Synthesis and Stochastic Assessment of Cost-Optimal Schedules

We present a novel approach to synthesize good schedules for a class of scheduling problems that is slightly more general than the scheduling problem FJm,a|gpr,r_j,d_j|early/tardy. The idea is to prime the schedule synthesizer with stochastic information more meaningful than performance factors with the objective to minimize the expected cost caused by storage or delay. The priming information is obtained by stochastic simulation of the system environment. The generated schedules are assessed again by simulation. The approach is demonstrated by means of a non-trivial scheduling problem from lacquer production. The experimental results show that our approach achieves in all considered scenarios better results than the extended processing times approach

A compositional method for reliability analysis of workflows affected by multiple failure modes

We focus on reliability analysis for systems designed as workflow based compositions of components. Components are characterized by their failure profiles, which take into account possible multiple failure modes. A compositional calculus is provided to evaluate the failure profile of a composite system, given failure profiles of the components. The calculus is described as a syntax-driven procedure that synthesizes a workflows failure profile. The method is viewed as a design-time aid that can help software engineers reason about systems reliability in the early stage of development. A simple case study is presented to illustrate the proposed approach

Construction and Verification of Performance and Reliability Models

Over the last two decades formal methods have been extended towards performance and reliability evaluation. This paper tries to provide a rather intuitive explanation of the basic concepts and features in this area. Instead of striving for mathematical rigour, the intention is to give an illustrative introduction to the basics of stochastic models, to stochastic modelling using process algebra, and to model checking as a technique to analyse stochastic models

A review on analysis and synthesis of nonlinear stochastic systems with randomly occurring incomplete information

Copyright q 2012 Hongli Dong et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.In the context of systems and control, incomplete information refers to a dynamical system in which knowledge about the system states is limited due to the difficulties in modeling complexity in a quantitative way. The well-known types of incomplete information include parameter uncertainties and norm-bounded nonlinearities. Recently, in response to the development of network technologies, the phenomenon of randomly occurring incomplete information has become more and more prevalent. Such a phenomenon typically appears in a networked environment. Examples include, but are not limited to, randomly occurring uncertainties, randomly occurring nonlinearities, randomly occurring saturation, randomly missing measurements and randomly occurring quantization. Randomly occurring incomplete information, if not properly handled, would seriously deteriorate the performance of a control system. In this paper, we aim to survey some recent advances on the analysis and synthesis problems for nonlinear stochastic systems with randomly occurring incomplete information. The developments of the filtering, control and fault detection problems are systematically reviewed. Latest results on analysis and synthesis of nonlinear stochastic systems are discussed in great detail. In addition, various distributed filtering technologies over sensor networks are highlighted. Finally, some concluding remarks are given and some possible future research directions are pointed out. © 2012 Hongli Dong et al.This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61273156, 61134009, 61273201, 61021002, and 61004067, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) of the UK under Grant GR/S27658/01, the Royal Society of the UK, the National Science Foundation of the USA under Grant No. HRD-1137732, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of German

Analysis, filtering, and control for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models in networked systems

Copyright © 2015 Sunjie Zhang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.The fuzzy logic theory has been proven to be effective in dealing with various nonlinear systems and has a great success in industry applications. Among different kinds of models for fuzzy systems, the so-called Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model has been quite popular due to its convenient and simple dynamic structure as well as its capability of approximating any smooth nonlinear function to any specified accuracy within any compact set. In terms of such a model, the performance analysis and the design of controllers and filters play important roles in the research of fuzzy systems. In this paper, we aim to survey some recent advances on the T-S fuzzy control and filtering problems with various network-induced phenomena. The network-induced phenomena under consideration mainly include communication delays, packet dropouts, signal quantization, and randomly occurring uncertainties (ROUs). With such network-induced phenomena, the developments on T-S fuzzy control and filtering issues are reviewed in detail. In addition, some latest results on this topic are highlighted. In the end, conclusions are drawn and some possible future research directions are pointed out.This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61134009, 61329301, 11301118 and 61174136, the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China under Grant BK20130017, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China under Grant CUSF-DH-D-2013061, the Royal Society of the U.K., and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany