Stochastic Budget Optimization in Internet Advertising

Internet advertising is a sophisticated game in which the many advertisers "play" to optimize their return on investment. There are many "targets" for the advertisements, and each "target" has a collection of games with a potentially different set of players involved. In this paper, we study the problem of how advertisers allocate their budget across these "targets". In particular, we focus on formulating their best response strategy as an optimization problem. Advertisers have a set of keywords ("targets") and some stochastic information about the future, namely a probability distribution over scenarios of cost vs click combinations. This summarizes the potential states of the world assuming that the strategies of other players are fixed. Then, the best response can be abstracted as stochastic budget optimization problems to figure out how to spread a given budget across these keywords to maximize the expected number of clicks. We present the first known non-trivial poly-logarithmic approximation for these problems as well as the first known hardness results of getting better than logarithmic approximation ratios in the various parameters involved. We also identify several special cases of these problems of practical interest, such as with fixed number of scenarios or with polynomial-sized parameters related to cost, which are solvable either in polynomial time or with improved approximation ratios. Stochastic budget optimization with scenarios has sophisticated technical structure. Our approximation and hardness results come from relating these problems to a special type of (0/1, bipartite) quadratic programs inherent in them. Our research answers some open problems raised by the authors in (Stochastic Models for Budget Optimization in Search-Based Advertising, Algorithmica, 58 (4), 1022-1044, 2010).Comment: FINAL versio

Optimal advertising campaign generation for multiple brands using MOGA

The paper proposes a new modified multiobjective genetic algorithm (MOGA) for the problem of optimal television (TV) advertising campaign generation for multiple brands. This NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem with numerous constraints is one of the key issues for an advertising agency when producing the optimal TV mediaplan. The classical approach to the solution of this problem is the greedy heuristic, which relies on the strength of the preceding commercial breaks when selecting the next break to add to the campaign. While the greedy heuristic is capable of generating only a group of solutions that are closely related in the objective space, the proposed modified MOGA produces a Pareto-optimal set of chromosomes that: 1) outperform the greedy heuristic and 2) let the mediaplanner choose from a variety of uniformly distributed tradeoff solutions. To achieve these results, the special problem-specific solution encoding, genetic operators, and original local optimization routine were developed for the algorithm. These techniques allow the algorithm to manipulate with only feasible individuals, thus, significantly improving its performance that is complicated by the problem constraints. The efficiency of the developed optimization method is verified using the real data sets from the Canadian advertising industry

Real-Time Bidding by Reinforcement Learning in Display Advertising

The majority of online display ads are served through real-time bidding (RTB) --- each ad display impression is auctioned off in real-time when it is just being generated from a user visit. To place an ad automatically and optimally, it is critical for advertisers to devise a learning algorithm to cleverly bid an ad impression in real-time. Most previous works consider the bid decision as a static optimization problem of either treating the value of each impression independently or setting a bid price to each segment of ad volume. However, the bidding for a given ad campaign would repeatedly happen during its life span before the budget runs out. As such, each bid is strategically correlated by the constrained budget and the overall effectiveness of the campaign (e.g., the rewards from generated clicks), which is only observed after the campaign has completed. Thus, it is of great interest to devise an optimal bidding strategy sequentially so that the campaign budget can be dynamically allocated across all the available impressions on the basis of both the immediate and future rewards. In this paper, we formulate the bid decision process as a reinforcement learning problem, where the state space is represented by the auction information and the campaign's real-time parameters, while an action is the bid price to set. By modeling the state transition via auction competition, we build a Markov Decision Process framework for learning the optimal bidding policy to optimize the advertising performance in the dynamic real-time bidding environment. Furthermore, the scalability problem from the large real-world auction volume and campaign budget is well handled by state value approximation using neural networks.Comment: WSDM 201

Managing Risk of Bidding in Display Advertising

In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB) based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit gains of 15.4% in offline experiments and up to 17.5% in an online A/B test on a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies

Defending Elections Against Malicious Spread of Misinformation

The integrity of democratic elections depends on voters' access to accurate information. However, modern media environments, which are dominated by social media, provide malicious actors with unprecedented ability to manipulate elections via misinformation, such as fake news. We study a zero-sum game between an attacker, who attempts to subvert an election by propagating a fake new story or other misinformation over a set of advertising channels, and a defender who attempts to limit the attacker's impact. Computing an equilibrium in this game is challenging as even the pure strategy sets of players are exponential. Nevertheless, we give provable polynomial-time approximation algorithms for computing the defender's minimax optimal strategy across a range of settings, encompassing different population structures as well as models of the information available to each player. Experimental results confirm that our algorithms provide near-optimal defender strategies and showcase variations in the difficulty of defending elections depending on the resources and knowledge available to the defender.Comment: Full version of paper accepted to AAAI 201

Media planning by optimizing contact frequencies

In this paper we study a model to estimate the probability that a target group of an advertising campaign is reached by a commercial message a given number of times. This contact frequency distribution is known to be computationally difficult to calculate because of dependence between the viewing probabilities of advertisements. Our model calculates good estimates of contact frequencies in a very short time based on data that is often available. A media planning model that optimizes effective reach as a function of contact frequencies demonstrates the usefulness of the model. Several local search procedures such as taboo search, simulated annealing and genetic algorithms are applied to find a good media schedule. The results show that local search methods are flexible, fast and accurate in finding media schedules for media planning models based on contact frequencies. The contact frequency model is a potentially useful new tool for media planners.optimization;contact frequency;effective reach;media planning

Stochastic Privacy

Online services such as web search and e-commerce applications typically rely on the collection of data about users, including details of their activities on the web. Such personal data is used to enhance the quality of service via personalization of content and to maximize revenues via better targeting of advertisements and deeper engagement of users on sites. To date, service providers have largely followed the approach of either requiring or requesting consent for opting-in to share their data. Users may be willing to share private information in return for better quality of service or for incentives, or in return for assurances about the nature and extend of the logging of data. We introduce \emph{stochastic privacy}, a new approach to privacy centering on a simple concept: A guarantee is provided to users about the upper-bound on the probability that their personal data will be used. Such a probability, which we refer to as \emph{privacy risk}, can be assessed by users as a preference or communicated as a policy by a service provider. Service providers can work to personalize and to optimize revenues in accordance with preferences about privacy risk. We present procedures, proofs, and an overall system for maximizing the quality of services, while respecting bounds on allowable or communicated privacy risk. We demonstrate the methodology with a case study and evaluation of the procedures applied to web search personalization. We show how we can achieve near-optimal utility of accessing information with provable guarantees on the probability of sharing data

Matroid Online Bipartite Matching and Vertex Cover

The Adwords and Online Bipartite Matching problems have enjoyed a renewed attention over the past decade due to their connection to Internet advertising. Our community has contributed, among other things, new models (notably stochastic) and extensions to the classical formulations to address the issues that arise from practical needs. In this paper, we propose a new generalization based on matroids and show that many of the previous results extend to this more general setting. Because of the rich structures and expressive power of matroids, our new setting is potentially of interest both in theory and in practice. In the classical version of the problem, the offline side of a bipartite graph is known initially while vertices from the online side arrive one at a time along with their incident edges. The objective is to maintain a decent approximate matching from which no edge can be removed. Our generalization, called Matroid Online Bipartite Matching, additionally requires that the set of matched offline vertices be independent in a given matroid. In particular, the case of partition matroids corresponds to the natural scenario where each advertiser manages multiple ads with a fixed total budget. Our algorithms attain the same performance as the classical version of the problems considered, which are often provably the best possible. We present $1-1/e$-competitive algorithms for Matroid Online Bipartite Matching under the small bid assumption, as well as a $1-1/e$-competitive algorithm for Matroid Online Bipartite Matching in the random arrival model. A key technical ingredient of our results is a carefully designed primal-dual waterfilling procedure that accommodates for matroid constraints. This is inspired by the extension of our recent charging scheme for Online Bipartite Vertex Cover.Comment: 19 pages, to appear in EC'1