Intervention analysis with state-space models to estimate discontinuities due to a survey redesign

An important quality aspect of official statistics produced by national statistical institutes is comparability over time. To maintain uninterrupted time series, surveys conducted by national statistical institutes are often kept unchanged as long as possible. To improve the quality or efficiency of a survey process, however, it remains inevitable to adjust methods or redesign this process from time to time. Adjustments in the survey process generally affect survey characteristics such as response bias and therefore have a systematic effect on the parameter estimates of a sample survey. Therefore, it is important that the effects of a survey redesign on the estimated series are explained and quantified. In this paper a structural time series model is applied to estimate discontinuities in series of the Dutch survey on social participation and environmental consciousness due to a redesign of the underlying survey process.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS305 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Region-Referenced Spectral Power Dynamics of EEG Signals: A Hierarchical Modeling Approach

Functional brain imaging through electroencephalography (EEG) relies upon the analysis and interpretation of high-dimensional, spatially organized time series. We propose to represent time-localized frequency domain characterizations of EEG data as region-referenced functional data. This representation is coupled with a hierarchical modeling approach to multivariate functional observations. Within this familiar setting, we discuss how several prior models relate to structural assumptions about multivariate covariance operators. An overarching modeling framework, based on infinite factorial decompositions, is finally proposed to balance flexibility and efficiency in estimation. The motivating application stems from a study of implicit auditory learning, in which typically developing (TD) children, and children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) were exposed to a continuous speech stream. Using the proposed model, we examine differential band power dynamics as brain function is interrogated throughout the duration of a computer-controlled experiment. Our work offers a novel look at previous findings in psychiatry, and provides further insights into the understanding of ASD. Our approach to inference is fully Bayesian and implemented in a highly optimized Rcpp package

Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regressions

We propose an alternative backtest to evaluate the performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models. The presented methodology allows us to directly test the performance of many competing VaR models, as well as identify periods of an increased risk exposure based on a quantile regression model (Koenker & Xiao, 2002). Quantile regressions provide us an appropriate environment to investigate VaR models, since they can naturally be viewed as a conditional quantile function of a given return series. A Monte Carlo simulation is presented, revealing that our proposed test might exhibit more power in comparison to other backtests presented in the literature. Finally, an empirical exercise is conducted for daily S&P500 return series in order to explore the practical relevance of our methodology by evaluating five competing VaRs through four different backtests.

Guidelines for the recording and evaluation of pharmaco-EEG data in man: the International Pharmaco-EEG Society (IPEG)

The International Pharmaco-EEG Society (IPEG) presents updated guidelines summarising the requirements for the recording and computerised evaluation of pharmaco-EEG data in man. Since the publication of the first pharmaco-EEG guidelines in 1982, technical and data processing methods have advanced steadily, thus enhancing data quality and expanding the palette of tools available to investigate the action of drugs on the central nervous system (CNS), determine the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of novel therapeutics and evaluate the CNS penetration or toxicity of compounds. However, a review of the literature reveals inconsistent operating procedures from one study to another. While this fact does not invalidate results per se, the lack of standardisation constitutes a regrettable shortcoming, especially in the context of drug development programmes. Moreover, this shortcoming hampers reliable comparisons between outcomes of studies from different laboratories and hence also prevents pooling of data which is a requirement for sufficiently powering the validation of novel analytical algorithms and EEG-based biomarkers. The present updated guidelines reflect the consensus of a global panel of EEG experts and are intended to assist investigators using pharmaco-EEG in clinical research, by providing clear and concise recommendations and thereby enabling standardisation of methodology and facilitating comparability of data across laboratories

EEG-Based User Reaction Time Estimation Using Riemannian Geometry Features

Riemannian geometry has been successfully used in many brain-computer interface (BCI) classification problems and demonstrated superior performance. In this paper, for the first time, it is applied to BCI regression problems, an important category of BCI applications. More specifically, we propose a new feature extraction approach for Electroencephalogram (EEG) based BCI regression problems: a spatial filter is first used to increase the signal quality of the EEG trials and also to reduce the dimensionality of the covariance matrices, and then Riemannian tangent space features are extracted. We validate the performance of the proposed approach in reaction time estimation from EEG signals measured in a large-scale sustained-attention psychomotor vigilance task, and show that compared with the traditional powerband features, the tangent space features can reduce the root mean square estimation error by 4.30-8.30%, and increase the estimation correlation coefficient by 6.59-11.13%.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1702.0291

Volatility forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly. JEL Klassifikation: C10, C53, G1