On the Inability of Markov Models to Capture Criticality in Human Mobility

We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish a theoretical upper bound on the predictability of human mobility (expressed as a minimum error probability limit), based on temporally correlated entropy. Since its inception, this bound has been widely used and empirically validated using Markov chains. We show that recurrent-neural architectures can achieve significantly higher predictability, surpassing this widely used upper bound. In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying assumptions in previous research works that has resulted in this bias. By evaluating the mobility predictability on real-world datasets, we show that human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-range correlations, bearing similarity to a power-law decay. This is in contrast to the initial assumption that human mobility follows an exponential decay. This assumption of exponential decay coupled with Lempel-Ziv compression in computing Fano's inequality has led to an inaccurate estimation of the predictability upper bound. We show that this approach inflates the entropy, consequently lowering the upper bound on human mobility predictability. We finally highlight that this approach tends to overlook long-range correlations in human mobility. This explains why recurrent-neural architectures that are designed to handle long-range structural correlations surpass the previously computed upper bound on mobility predictability

Inferring Synaptic Structure in presence of Neural Interaction Time Scales

Biological networks display a variety of activity patterns reflecting a web of interactions that is complex both in space and time. Yet inference methods have mainly focused on reconstructing, from the network's activity, the spatial structure, by assuming equilibrium conditions or, more recently, a probabilistic dynamics with a single arbitrary time-step. Here we show that, under this latter assumption, the inference procedure fails to reconstruct the synaptic matrix of a network of integrate-and-fire neurons when the chosen time scale of interaction does not closely match the synaptic delay or when no single time scale for the interaction can be identified; such failure, moreover, exposes a distinctive bias of the inference method that can lead to infer as inhibitory the excitatory synapses with interaction time scales longer than the model's time-step. We therefore introduce a new two-step method, that first infers through cross-correlation profiles the delay-structure of the network and then reconstructs the synaptic matrix, and successfully test it on networks with different topologies and in different activity regimes. Although step one is able to accurately recover the delay-structure of the network, thus getting rid of any \textit{a priori} guess about the time scales of the interaction, the inference method introduces nonetheless an arbitrary time scale, the time-bin $dt$ used to binarize the spike trains. We therefore analytically and numerically study how the choice of $dt$ affects the inference in our network model, finding that the relationship between the inferred couplings and the real synaptic efficacies, albeit being quadratic in both cases, depends critically on $dt$ for the excitatory synapses only, whilst being basically independent of it for the inhibitory ones

On Timing Model Extraction and Hierarchical Statistical Timing Analysis

In this paper, we investigate the challenges to apply Statistical Static Timing Analysis (SSTA) in hierarchical design flow, where modules supplied by IP vendors are used to hide design details for IP protection and to reduce the complexity of design and verification. For the three basic circuit types, combinational, flip-flop-based and latch-controlled, we propose methods to extract timing models which contain interfacing as well as compressed internal constraints. Using these compact timing models the runtime of full-chip timing analysis can be reduced, while circuit details from IP vendors are not exposed. We also propose a method to reconstruct the correlation between modules during full-chip timing analysis. This correlation can not be incorporated into timing models because it depends on the layout of the corresponding modules in the chip. In addition, we investigate how to apply the extracted timing models with the reconstructed correlation to evaluate the performance of the complete design. Experiments demonstrate that using the extracted timing models and reconstructed correlation full-chip timing analysis can be several times faster than applying the flattened circuit directly, while the accuracy of statistical timing analysis is still well maintained

Linear response for spiking neuronal networks with unbounded memory

We establish a general linear response relation for spiking neuronal networks, based on chains with unbounded memory. This relation allows us to predict the influence of a weak amplitude time-dependent external stimuli on spatio-temporal spike correlations, from the spontaneous statistics (without stimulus) in a general context where the memory in spike dynamics can extend arbitrarily far in the past. Using this approach, we show how linear response is explicitly related to neuronal dynamics with an example, the gIF model, introduced by M. Rudolph and A. Destexhe. This example illustrates the collective effect of the stimuli, intrinsic neuronal dynamics, and network connectivity on spike statistics. We illustrate our results with numerical simulations.Comment: 60 pages, 8 figure