Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Beating the Perils of Non-Convexity: Guaranteed Training of Neural Networks using Tensor Methods

Training neural networks is a challenging non-convex optimization problem, and backpropagation or gradient descent can get stuck in spurious local optima. We propose a novel algorithm based on tensor decomposition for guaranteed training of two-layer neural networks. We provide risk bounds for our proposed method, with a polynomial sample complexity in the relevant parameters, such as input dimension and number of neurons. While learning arbitrary target functions is NP-hard, we provide transparent conditions on the function and the input for learnability. Our training method is based on tensor decomposition, which provably converges to the global optimum, under a set of mild non-degeneracy conditions. It consists of simple embarrassingly parallel linear and multi-linear operations, and is competitive with standard stochastic gradient descent (SGD), in terms of computational complexity. Thus, we propose a computationally efficient method with guaranteed risk bounds for training neural networks with one hidden layer.Comment: The tensor decomposition analysis is expanded, and the analysis of ridge regression is added for recovering the parameters of last layer of neural networ

A Statistically Principled and Computationally Efficient Approach to Speech Enhancement using Variational Autoencoders

Recent studies have explored the use of deep generative models of speech spectra based of variational autoencoders (VAEs), combined with unsupervised noise models, to perform speech enhancement. These studies developed iterative algorithms involving either Gibbs sampling or gradient descent at each step, making them computationally expensive. This paper proposes a variational inference method to iteratively estimate the power spectrogram of the clean speech. Our main contribution is the analytical derivation of the variational steps in which the en-coder of the pre-learned VAE can be used to estimate the varia-tional approximation of the true posterior distribution, using the very same assumption made to train VAEs. Experiments show that the proposed method produces results on par with the afore-mentioned iterative methods using sampling, while decreasing the computational cost by a factor 36 to reach a given performance .Comment: Submitted to INTERSPEECH 201