Speculative Objects

Speculative Objects is an ongoing series of art works that incorporate text and object. The unfinished nature of this series is integral to O’Riley’s ideas of the open-ended as being a key element of Fine Art research. These works feature associative inscriptions determined by an object’s function or purpose. For example, here is a bench that was used to seat viewers of a 2-hour animation of an orbit around the moon. This was inspired by Michael Collins’ Apollo 11 mission during which he orbited the moon alone, while Armstrong and Aldrin walked on the lunar surface for the first time. An animation was made using data of the moon’s surface collected in 1994 by a spacecraft called Clementine, so named after the folk song, Oh My Darling Clementine! O’Riley’s bench features the first words of the song engraved onto its surface. As an ongoing project made up of a number of elements or instances, the works question the form an artwork can take. The language of art is speculated on, scrutinised and extended by being projected through and inscribed into, particular objects. A work from this series was included, together with a text by O’Riley, in a book dedicated to Martin Kemp, Emeritus Professor of the History of Art at University of Oxford: Assimina Kaniari & Marina Wallace (eds.), Acts of Seeing: Artists, Scientists and the History of the Visual, London: Zidane Press, 2009 ISBN 978-0-9554850-8-4. A selection from Speculative Objects was exhibited in Spring 2011 at the library of Chelsea College of Art & Design

Speculative Attacks

Models with multiple equilibria are a popular way to explain currency attacks. Morris and Shin (1998) have shown that, in the context of those models, unique equilibria may prevail once noisy private information is introduced. In this paper, we generalize the results of Morris and Shin to a broader class of probability distributions and show - using the technique of iterated elimination of dominated strategies - that uniqueness will hold, even if we allow for sunspots and individual uncertainty about strategic behavior of other agents. We provide a clear exposition of the logic of this model and we analyse the impact of transparency on the probability of a speculative attack. For the case of uniform distribution of noisy signals, we show that increased transparency of government policy reduces the likelihood of attacks

Explorative Nanophilosophy as Tecnoscienza: An Italian Perspective on the Role of Speculation in Nanoindustry

There are two primary camps in which nanotechnology today can be categorized normal nanotechnology and speculative nanotechnology. The birth of nanotechnology proper was conceived through discourses of speculative nanotechnology. However, current nanotech-nology research has detracted from its speculative promises in favour of more attainable material products. Nonetheless, normal nanotechnology has leveraged the popular support and consequential funding it needs to conduct research and development (R&D) as a result of popular conceptions of speculative nanotechnology and its promises. Similarly, the scholarly literature has shifted its focus away from speculative nanofutures towards normal nanotech-nology R&D. This paper shows that there is an incongruence between the representation of nanotechnology in the media, scholarly journals and industry

Reading Speculative Futures in a Post-Truth World

Faced with the threat of a “post-truth” world and a widening chasm of exchange between climate change deniers and environmentalists, I argue that future-orientated literary and media speculative fictions—which I term “speculative futures”—offer a means of building lines of communication across social and political divisions. This thought piece on “The Environmental Humanities in a Post-Truth World” mediates upon the potentiality of speculative futures as theory, social bridge-building, and pedagogical tool. Speculative fictions (especially those that address environmental justice, and anti-colonial and feminist politics) use storytelling and future imaginaries to challenge political falsehoods and imagine more ecological, de-colonized futures

Speculative Dynamics

This paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of a wide range of asset returns. It highlights three stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, returns tend to be negatively serially correlated over long horizons. Third, deviations of asset values from proxies for fundamental value have predictive power for returns. These patterns emerge repeatedly in our analyses of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, real estate, collectibles, and precious metals, and they appear too strong to be attributed only to small sample biases. The pervasive nature of these patterns suggests that they may be lie to inherent features of the speculative process, rather than to variation in risk factors which affect particular markets.

Coping with the speculative attack against the forint's band

On 15 and 16 January 2003, an intensive speculative attack was launched against the exchange rate band of the forint. This study analyses the monetary policy decisions with regard to the antecedents of the speculation, the events of the speculative episode and the subsequent period of consolidation. The study finds that the speculative attack was irrational and unjustified in view of several considerations. Through adjustments in the policy rate and the modification of monetary instruments, the MNB was able to defend the exchange rate band of the forint. The MNB successfully localized the effects of the speculative attack on the interbank market. The MNB’s presence on the foreign exchange market facilitated the rapid and controlled withdrawal of the speculative capital, without threatening the disinflation process and the stability of the financial system. The investors taking part in the speculation incurred substantial losses, while the market developments after the speculative episode increased the banking system’s profit.financial markets, speculative attack, exchange rate, speculative episode.

Speculative Growth

We propose a framework for understanding recurrent historical episodes of vigorous economic expansion accompanied by extreme asset valuations, as exhibited by Japan in the 1980's and the U.S. in the 1990's. We interpret this phenomenon as a high-valuation equilibrium with a low effective cost of capital based on optimism about the future availability of funds for investment. The key to the sustainability of such equilibrium is feedback from increased growth to an increase in the supply of funding. We show that such feedback arises naturally when the expansion is concentrated in a new economy' sector and when it is supported by sustained financial surpluses-both of which would constitute an integral part, as cause and consequence, of a speculative growth' equilibrium. The high-valuation equilibrium we analyze may take the form of a stock market bubble. In contrast to classic bubbles on non-productive assets, the bubbles in our model encourage real investments, boost long run savings, and may appear in dynamically efficient economies.

Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market

Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The recent increase in Brazilian housing prices has risen concerns that the Brazilian economy may have a speculative housing bubble. In the present paper, we employ a recently proposed recursive unit root test in order to identify possible speculative bubbles in data from the Brazilian residential real-estate market. The empirical results show evidence for speculative price bubbles both in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, the two main Brazilian cities