"Macroeconomics of Speculation"

Despite his emphasis on the speculative character of investment decisions, Minsky paid little attention to asset price speculation per se, ignoring asset price bubbles and their macroeconomic effects. That is perhaps because his views were formed during the era of financial regulation, when speculation "could do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise." Clearly, times have since changed. Keynes's old warning that the situation is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculationÓ has begun to ring true again. To deepen our understanding of financial fragility under present-day conditions, the paper builds on Keynes's insights in his General Theory on the stock exchange by going back to his Treatise, where asset price expectations and speculation play an integral part in his analysis of the business cycle. More specifically, it develops the macroeconomic implications of some of his arguments that have mainly been eclipsed by his GT. These can be summarized in three related propositions: (1) asset price expectations systematically exhibit self-sustained biases in one direction or another over the business cycle; (2) once an asset price bubble emerges no automatic mechanism exists to check the deviation of prices from their true values; and, (3) mean reversion in asset prices over time plays itself out through a rise in inactive money balances in the banking system, which Keynes called the bear position, as more and more people begin to think that asset prices have reached levels that are unreasonable. This early picture of how financial variables interact with output determination over the business cycle is contrasted with Keynes's better known analysis in the GT, which, it is argued, does not lend itself as readily to analyzing asset price misalignments.

Exclusion Through Speculation

Many commodities are traded on both a spot market and a derivative market. We show that an incumbent producer may use financial derivatives to extract rent from a potential entrant. The incumbent can indeed sell insurance to a large buyer to commit himself to compete aggressively in the spot market and drive the price down for the entrant. It can do so by selling derivatives for more than his expected production level, i.e. by taking a speculative position. This comes at the cost of inefficiently deterring entry.exclusion;monopolization;contracts;financial contracts;derivatives;risk aversion;speculation

Macroeconomics of Speculation

Despite his emphasis on the speculative character of investment decisions, Minsky paid little attention to asset price speculation per se, ignoring asset price bubbles and their macroeconomic effects. That is perhaps because his views were formed during the era of financial regulation, when speculation “could do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise.” Clearly, times have since changed. Keynes’s old warning that the situation “… is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation” has begun to ring true again. To deepen our understanding of financial fragility under present-day conditions, the paper builds on Keynes’s insights in his General Theory on the stock exchange by going back to his Treatise, where asset price expectations and speculation play an integral part in his analysis of the business cycle. More specifically, it develops the macroeconomic implications of some of his arguments that have mainly been eclipsed by his GT. These can be summarized in three related propositions: (1) asset price expectations systematically exhibit self-sustained biases in one direction or another over the business cycle; (2) once an asset price bubble emerges no automatic mechanism exists to check the deviation of prices from their true values; and, (3) mean reversion in asset prices over time plays itself out through a rise in inactive money balances in the banking system, which Keynes called the bear position, as more and more people begin to think that asset prices have reached levels that are unreasonable. This early picture of how financial variables interact with output determination over the business cycle is contrasted with Keynes’s better known analysis in the GT, which, it is argued, does not lend itself as readily to analyzing asset price misalignments.asset prices, speculation, business cycle, keynesian theory

Analysis of the overheads incurred due to speculation in a task based programming model

In order to efficiently utilize the ever increasing processing power of multi-cores, a programmer must extract as much parallelism as possible from a given application. However with every such attempt there is an associated overhead of its implementation. A parallelization technique is beneficial only if its respective overhead is less than the performance gains realized. In this paper we analyze the overhead of one such endeavor where, in SMPSs, speculation is used to execute tasks ahead in time. Speculation is used to overcome the synchronization pragmas in SMPSs which block the generation of work and lead to the underutilization of the available resources. TinySTM, a Software Transactional Memory library is used to maintain correctness in case of mis-speculation. In this paper, we analyze the affect of TinySTM on a set of SMPSs applications which employ speculation to improve the performance. We show that for the chosen set of benchmarks, no performance gains are achieved if the application spends more than 1% of its execution time in TinySTM.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Identifying the Signs of Currency Speculation in Hong Kong's Linked exchange Rate

This paper identifies the ex ante factors of currency speculation based on the experience of Hong Kong’s three episodes in 1988, 1998 and 2007. The dynamic conditional correlation models are used to study the inter-temporal interactions among the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Index futures and exchange rate difference. The logistic model is applied to study the probability of currency speculation. The empirical results indicate that unusual movements in the exchange rate difference, Hang Seng Index premium and open interest of futures contracts can be found in the period prior to and during currency speculations. In addition, the conditional correlation between stock market and exchange rate market declined sharply during the periods of currency speculation. The paper traces the disposition of the speculators.Currency speculation, linked exchange rate, Hong Kong

Disagreement-Based Trading and Speculation: Implications for Financial Regulation and Economic Theory

Lynn Stout's paper develops an insightful legal-economic analysis of speculative trading. From one hand, the paper discusses the legal-economic framework of speculation and its recent transformation, making reference to the case of derivatives markets crash (and related financial crisis) of 2007. From another hand, the paper foreshadows a thought-provoking economic model of trade (and speculation) based on disagreement, advocating further developments that take into account market manipulation and conflict of interest, whilst relaxing alleged assumptions (and beliefs) on universal fundamental value and perfect forecasting.economic theory; financial regulation; speculation; hedging; heterogeneous beliefs

Speculation in Standard Auctions with Resale

In standard auctions with symmetric, independent private value bidders resale creates a role for a speculator—a bidder who is commonly known to have no use value for the good on sale. For second-price and English auctions the efficient value-bidding equilibrium coexists with a continuum of inefficient equilibria in which the speculator wins the auction and makes positive profits. First-price and Dutch auctions have an essentially unique equilibrium, and whether or not the speculator wins the auction and distorts the final allocation depends on the number of bidders, the value distribution, and the discount factor. Speculators do not make profits in first-price or Dutch auctions