Approaches in the prioritisation of areas for biodiversity conservation: a case study from the Western Cape pf South Africa

Historical ad hoc allocations of land for biodiversity conservation have led to a biased representation of habitat within the Cape Floristic Region, with Protected Areas concentrated in upland areas at high altitudes and on steep slopes. The field of Conservation Planning developed to ensure that allocations of areas to Protected status no longer result in such bias and rather promotes the persistence of biodiversity. This study reviewed a recent allocation of land to biodiversity conservation within Western Cape of South Africa, using both a quantitative and qualitative approach, to determine their value to biodiversity conservation. The area was previously used for commercial forestry but now has been allocated to conservation land-uses. The allocation was based on the area’s value to the forestry industry. The qualitative approach in this study engaged with relevant stakeholder groups to map priority areas, while the quantitative approach used available data on biodiversity features to map priority areas. Neither approach determined that the area allocated is in its full extent a priority for biodiversity conservation. This indicated that in the current era of Conservation Planning, Protected Areas are still being allocated in an ad hoc manner, as a result of their limited perceived benefit to anthropocentric needs. The future allocation of land to biodiversity conservation should rather integrate expert knowledge and available quantifiable data to ensure that priority areas for biodiversity conservation are being protected

Improving longitudinal habitat connectivity in major river restoration projects through farmland re-allocation

River restoration projects are often accompanied by major land consolidation operations, notably the re-allocation of adjacent farmland, which offers the opportunity to create an extensively-managed buffer zone outside the levees where specific habitat features are installed for endangered terrestrial and semi-aquatic biodiversity. Modern, enrivonmentally-friendly land consolidation operations might thus not only contribute to better integrate the newly restored river into the adjacent landscape, but also to reinstate the longitudinal ecological connectivity that crudely lacks along channelized rivers. Based on a theoretical re-allocation of agricultural land via land consolidation, we simulated the creation of a longitudinal biodiversity-friendly grassland buffer along a stretch of the Rhone River (SW Switzerland) where a major revitalisation project is under development. We selected a series of focal species depending on a palette of complementary habitat features, and combinations thereof, to be created for reaching these biodiversity targets. Estimations of species-specific habitat patch size requirements as well as dispersal abilities were used to analyse what would be an optimal spatial connectivity for these habitat features. Since such a buffer zone will necessarily stretch along the riverbed, which implies different spatial contraints and consequential planning strategies, we tested two scenarios via a metapopulation model: (i) arranging key habitat features longitudinally or (ii) positioning them in an isotropic context. Simulations showed that differences in metapopulation connectivity between scenarios were negligible at the foreseen scale. We conclude that land consolidation via targeted farmland re-allocation could be instrumental to restoring ecological connectivity in major river revitalisation projects. We also provide concrete quantitative values for restoring an optimal ecological buffer along the Rhˆone that will promote locally endangered biodiversity

Modelling urban spatial change: a review of international and South African modelling initiatives

August 2013Urban growth and land use change models have the potential to become important tools for urban spatial planning and management. Before embarking on any modelling, however, GCRO felt it was important to take note of, and critically assess lessons to be learnt from international experience and scholarship on spatial modelling, as well as a number of South African experiments that model future urban development. In 2012, GCRO initiated preliminary research into current international and South African modelling trends through a desktop study and telephone, email and personal interviews. This Occasional paper sets out to investigate what urban spatial change modelling research is currently being undertaken internationally and within South Africa. At the international level, urban modelling research since 2000 is reviewed according to five main categories: land use transportation (LUT), cellular automata, urban system dynamics, agent-based models (ABMs) and spatial economics/econometric models (SE/EMs). Within South Africa, urban modelling initiatives are categorised differently and include a broader range of urban modelling techniques. Typologies used include: provincial government modelling initiatives in Gauteng; municipal government modelling initiatives; other government-funded modelling research; and academic modelling research. The various modelling initiatives described are by no means a comprehensive review of all urban spatial change modelling projects in South Africa, but provide a broad indication of the types of urban spatial change modelling underway. Importantly, the models may form the basis for more accurate and sophisticated urban modelling projects in the future. The paper concludes by identifying key urban modelling opportunities and challenges for short- to long-term planning in the GCR and South Africa.Written by Chris Wray, Josephine Musango and Kavesha Damon (GCRO) Koech Cheruiyot (NRF:SARChI chair in Development Planning and Modelling at Wits

Patterns of historical and future urban expansion in Nepal

Globally, urbanization is increasing at an unprecedented rate at the cost of agricultural and forested lands in peri-urban areas fringing larger cities. Such land-cover change generally entails negative implications for societal and environmental sustainability, particularly in South Asia, where high demographic growth and poor land-use planning combine. Analyzing historical land-use change and predicting the future trends concerning urban expansion may support more effective land-use planning and sustainable outcomes. For Nepal's Tarai region-a populous area experiencing land-use change due to urbanization and other factors-we draw on Landsat satellite imagery to analyze historical land-use change focusing on urban expansion during 1989-2016 and predict urban expansion by 2026 and 2036 using artificial neural network (ANN) and Markov chain (MC) spatial models based on historical trends. Urban cover quadrupled since 1989, expanding by 256 km2 (460%), largely as small scattered settlements. This expansion was almost entirely at the expense of agricultural conversion (249 km2). After 2016, urban expansion is predicted to increase linearly by a further 199 km2 by 2026 and by another 165 km2 by 2036, almost all at the expense of agricultural cover. Such unplanned loss of prime agricultural lands in Nepal's fertile Tarai region is of serious concern for food-insecure countries like Nepal

Identifying urban growth patterns through land-use/land-cover spatio-temporal metrics: Simulation and analysis

[EN] The spatial pattern of urban growth determines how the physical, socio-economic and environmental characteristics of urban areas change over time. Monitoring urban areas for early identification of spatial patterns facilitates assuring their sustainable growth. In this paper, we assess the use of spatio-temporal metrics from land-use/land-cover (LULC) maps to identify growth patterns. We applied LULC change models to simulate different scenarios of urban growth spatial patterns (i.e., expansion, compact, dispersed, road-based and leapfrog) on various baseline urban forms (i.e., monocentric, polycentric, sprawl and linear). Then, we computed the spatio-temporal metrics for the simulated scenarios, selected the most informative metrics by applying discriminant analysis and classified the growth patterns using clustering methods. Two metrics, Weighted mean expansion and Weighted Euclidean distance, which account for the densification, compactness and concentration of urban growth, were the most efficient for classifying the five growth patterns, despite the influence of the baseline urban form. These metrics have the potential to identify growth patterns for monitoring and evaluating the management of developing urban areas.This work was supported by the the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad and FEDER [CGL2016-80705-R].Sapena Moll, M.; Ruiz Fernández, LÁ. (2021). Identifying urban growth patterns through land-use/land-cover spatio-temporal metrics: Simulation and analysis. International Journal of Geographical Information Science. 35(2):375-396. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2020.181746337539635

A review of historical reconstruction methods of land use/land cover

Understanding long-term human-environment interactions requires historical reconstruction of past land-use and land-cover changes. Most reconstructions have been based primarily on consistently available and relatively standardized information from historical sources. Based on available data sources and a retrospective research, in this paper we review the approaches and methods of the digital reconstruction and analyze their advantages and possible constraints in the following aspects: (1) Historical documents contain qualitative or semi-quantitative information about past land use, which also usually include land-cover data, but preparation of archival documents is very time-consuming. (2) Historical maps and pictures offer visual and spatial quantitative land-cover information. (3) Natural archive has significant advantages as a method for reconstructing past vegetation and has its unique possibilities especially when historical records are missing or lacking, but it has great limits of rebuilding certain land-cover types. (4) Historical reconstruction models have been gradually developed from empirical models to mechanistic ones. The method does not only reconstruct the quantity of land use/cover in historical periods, but it also reproduces the spatial distribution. Yet there are still few historical land-cover datasets with high spatial resolution. (5) Reconstruction method based on multiple-source data and multidisciplinary research could build historical land-cover from multiple perspectives, complement the missing data, verify reconstruction results and thus improve reconstruction accuracy. However, there are challenges that make the method still in the exploratory stage. This method can be a long-term development goal for the historical land-cover reconstruction. Researchers should focus on rebuilding historical land-cover dataset with high spatial resolution by developing new models so that the study results could be effectively applied in simulations of climatic and ecological effects

The fine art of boundary spanning: Making space for water in the east Netherlands

The desire to comply with the European Water Framework Directive, which seeks to promote Integrated Water Management, has led to a large number of proposed projects that in turn make huge demands on the financial and administrative capacity of water managers, who need to combine multiple fields of interest and participation such as agricultural interests, regional economic development, natural values, water safety and water quality issues to complete each project. To achieve these goals, water managers will often need to negotiate and strike alliances with actors in other policy areas such as spatial planning and local and regional economic development. The article first introduces 'boundary spanning' in a water management context. The concept builds on the concept of 'boundary work' as a strategy to arrive at organisational goals -�� to reduce uncertainty and deal with complexity in the organisational environment. The contribution then discusses briefly two recent innovative regional water projects, both located in the East Netherlands: a retention basin project on the river Vecht and the planning of a new channel, the Breakthrough. It further analyses strategies pursued by 'boundary spanners' and integrates the analysis with that of a focus group workshop and interviews held with Dutch boundary spanners working for Dutch regional Water Management Boards. The cases show that it is preferable to apply boundary spanning strategies earlier rather than later, and that opponents are also aware of this option