Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Their Influence on the Ecosystem in Chengdu City, China during the Period of 1992–2018

Due to urban expansion, economic development, and rapid population growth, land use/land cover (LULC) is changing in major cities around the globe. Quantitative analysis of LULC change is important for studying the corresponding impact on the ecosystem service value (ESV) that helps in decision-making and ecosystem conservation. Based on LULC data retrieved from remote-sensing interpretation, we computed the changes of ESV associated with the LULC dynamics using the benefits transfer method and geographic information system (GIS) technologies during the period of 1992–2018 following self-modified coefficients which were corrected by net primary productivity (NPP). This improved approach aimed to establish a regional value coefficients table for facilitating the reliable evaluation of ESV. The main objective of this research was to clarify the trend and spatial patterns of LULC changes and their influence on ecosystem service values and functions. Our results show a continuous reduction in total ESV from United States (US) $1476.25 million in 1992, to US$1410.17, $1335.10, and$1190.56 million in 2001, 2009, and 2018, respectively; such changes are attributed to a notable loss of farmland and forest land from 1992–2018. The elasticity of ESV in response to changes in LULC shows that 1% of land transition may have caused average changes of 0.28%, 0.34%, and 0.50% during the periods of 1992–2001, 2001–2009, and 2009–2018, respectively. This study provides important information useful for land resource management and for developing strategies to address the reduction of ESV

Mapping regional land cover and land use change using MODIS time series

Coarse resolution satellite observations of the Earth provide critical data in support of land cover and land use monitoring at regional to global scales. This dissertation focuses on methodology and dataset development that exploit multi-temporal data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to improve current information related to regional forest cover change and urban extent. In the first element of this dissertation, I develop a novel distance metric-based change detection method to map annual forest cover change at 500m spatial resolution. Evaluations based on a global network of test sites and two regional case studies in Brazil and the United States demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of this methodology, where estimated changes in forest cover are comparable to reference data derived from higher spatial resolution data sources. In the second element of this dissertation, I develop methods to estimate fractional urban cover for temperate and tropical regions of China at 250m spatial resolution by fusing MODIS data with nighttime lights using the Random Forest regression algorithm. Assessment of results for 9 cities in Eastern, Central, and Southern China show good agreement between the estimated urban percentages from MODIS and reference urban percentages derived from higher resolution Landsat data. In the final element of this dissertation, I assess the capability of a new nighttime lights dataset from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) for urban mapping applications. This dataset provides higher spatial resolution and improved radiometric quality in nighttime lights observations relative to previous datasets. Analyses for a study area in the Yangtze River Delta in China show that this new source of data significantly improves representation of urban areas, and that fractional urban estimation based on DNB can be further improved by fusion with MODIS data. Overall, the research in this dissertation contributes new methods and understanding for remote sensing-based change detection methodologies. The results suggest that land cover change products from coarse spatial resolution sensors such as MODIS and VIIRS can benefit from regional optimization, and that urban extent mapping from nighttime lights should exploit complementary information from conventional visible and near infrared observations

Urban expansion and agricultural land loss in China: A multiscale perspective

China’s rapid urbanization has contributed to a massive agricultural land loss that could threaten its food security. Timely and accurate mapping of urban expansion and urbanization-related agricultural land loss can provide viable measures to be taken for urban planning and agricultural land protection. In this study, urban expansion in China from 2001 to 2013 was mapped using the nighttime stable light (NSL), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and water body data. Urbanization-related agricultural land loss during this time period was then evaluated at national, regional, and metropolitan scales by integrating multiple sources of geographic data. The results revealed that China’s total urban area increased from 31,076 km2 in 2001 to 80,887 km2 in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 13.36%. This widespread urban expansion consumed 33,080 km2 of agricultural land during this period. At a regional scale, the eastern region lost 18,542 km2 or 1.2% of its total agricultural land area. At a metropolitan scale, the Shanghai–Nanjing–Hangzhou (SNH) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) areas underwent high levels of agricultural land loss with a decrease of 6.12% (4728 km2) and 6.05% (2702 km2) of their total agricultural land areas, respectively. Special attention should be paid to the PRD, with a decline of 13.30% (1843 km2) of its cropland. Effective policies and strategies should be implemented to mitigate urbanization-related agricultural land loss in the context of China’s rapid urbanization

Urban land expansion and spatial dynamics in Globalizing Shanghai

pre-printUrban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs). We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai

Urban air pollution modelling with machine learning using fixed and mobile sensors

Detailed air quality (AQ) information is crucial for sustainable urban management, and many regions in the world have built static AQ monitoring networks to provide AQ information. However, they can only monitor the region-level AQ conditions or sparse point-based air pollutant measurements, but cannot capture the urban dynamics with high-resolution spatio-temporal variations over the region. Without pollution details, citizens will not be able to make fully informed decisions when choosing their everyday outdoor routes or activities, and policy-makers can only make macroscopic regulating decisions on controlling pollution triggering factors and emission sources. An increasing research effort has been paid on mobile and ubiquitous sampling campaigns as they are deemed the more economically and operationally feasible methods to collect urban AQ data with high spatio-temporal resolution. The current research proposes a Machine Learning based AQ Inference (Deep AQ) framework from data-driven perspective, consisting of data pre-processing, feature extraction and transformation, and pixelwise (grid-level) AQ inference. The Deep AQ framework is adaptable to integrate AQ measurements from the fixed monitoring sites (temporally dense but spatially sparse), and mobile low-cost sensors (temporally sparse but spatially dense). While instantaneous pollutant concentration varies in the micro-environment, this research samples representative values in each grid-cell-unit and achieves AQ inference at 1 km \times 1 km pixelwise scale. This research explores the predictive power of the Deep AQ framework based on samples from only 40 fixed monitoring sites in Chengdu, China (4,900 {\mathrm{km}}^\mathrm{2}, 26 April - 12 June 2019) and collaborative sampling from 28 fixed monitoring sites and 15 low-cost sensors equipped with taxis deployed in Beijing, China (3,025 {\mathrm{km}}^\mathrm{2}, 19 June - 16 July 2018). The proposed Deep AQ framework is capable of producing high-resolution (1 km \times 1 km, hourly) pixelwise AQ inference based on multi-source AQ samples (fixed or mobile) and urban features (land use, population, traffic, and meteorological information, etc.). This research has achieved high-resolution (1 km \times 1 km, hourly) AQ inference (Chengdu: less than 1% spatio-temporal coverage; Beijing: less than 5% spatio-temporal coverage) with reasonable and satisfactory accuracy by the proposed methods in urban cases (Chengdu: SMAPE \mathrm{<} 20%; Beijing: SMAPE \mathrm{<} 15%). Detailed outcomes and main conclusions are provided in this thesis on the aspects of fixed and mobile sensing, spatio-temporal coverage and density, and the relative importance of urban features. Outcomes from this research facilitate to provide a scientific and detailed health impact assessment framework for exposure analysis and inform policy-makers with data driven evidence for sustainable urban management.Open Acces

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Earthquake Recovery

The recovery process after a major disaster or disruption, is impacted by the inequality of risk prior to and post event. In the past decades there has been few efforts to model the recovery process and the focus is mainly on staged models (i.e. emergency, restoration, and reconstruction). The overarching research question asks how a non-stage-like model could apply to the recovery process. This study poses three broad questions: 1) what are the indicators suitable for monitoring the recovery process; 2) what are the driving factors of differential recovery trends; and 3) what are the predicted development trajectories for communities if there was no disruption? To address the research questions, a new model is proposed for tracking the recovery process as the “Tempo-variant Model of Disaster Recovery” (TMDR), which is implemented for six case studies of recoveries post-earthquakes, in a continuous trend through time (case studies from: Chile, New Zealand, India, Iran, China, and Italy). The recovery process is monitored through a set of proposed indicators representing the changes in six main categories of housing, socio-economic, agriculture, infrastructural, institutional, and development. Satellite imagery is used as a congruent data source to monitor urban land surface change that is implemented with a new model and conditional algebra for change detection. A new method is then developed by combining the satellite imagery data with social indicators, which provides quantitative/relative measure of recovery trend (spatially and temporally) where ground assessments are impractical. The results of implementing the new TMDR model in this cross-cultural comparative study, further highlights the drivers of recovery process across time and nations. The difference between post-event and pre-event trends (i.e. recovery progress) shows significant association with instantaneous impact of the event on community development dynamics in all cases. The spatio-temporal analysis shows majority of the study area in Chile is recovered, but there are regions in the other cases that are still recovering. The comparative view on TMDR results indicates that impact of event is more significant for recovery progress in the initial years post-event, while additional indicators of access to basic infrastructure is more predictive in the long-term. Therefore, this new model provides a case-dependent baseline and an operational tool for monitoring the recovery process

Urban expansion occurred at the expense of agricultural lands in the Tarai region of Nepal from 1989 to 2016

Recent rapid urbanization in developing countries presents challenges for sustainable environmental planning and peri-urban cropland management. An improved understanding of the timing and pattern of urbanization is needed to determine how to better plan urbanization for the near future. Here, we describe the spatio-temporal patterns of urbanization and related land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes in the Tarai region of Nepal, as well as discuss the factors underlying its rapid urban expansion. Analyses are based on regional time-series Landsat 5, 7 and 8 image classifications for six years between 1989 and 2016, representing the first long-term observations of their kind for Nepal. During this 27-year period, gains in urban cover and losses of cultivated lands occurred widely. Urban cover occupied 221.1 km2 in 1989 and increased 320% by 2016 to a total 930.22 km2. Cultivated land was the primary source of new urban cover. Of the new urban cover added since 1989, 93% was formerly cultivated. Urban expansion occurred at moderately exponential rates over consecutive observation periods, with nearly half of all urban expansion occurring during 2006–2011 (305 km2). The annual rate of urban growth during 1989–1996 averaged 3.3% but reached as high as 8.09% and 12.61% during 1996–2001 and 2011–2016, respectively. At the district level, the rate of urban growth and, by extension, agricultural loss, were weakly related to total population growth. Variability in this relationship suggests that concerted urban-growth management may reduce losses of agricultural lands relative to historic trends despite further population growth and urbanization. Urbanization and LULC change in the Tarai region are attributable to significant inter-regional migration in a context of poor urban planning and lax policies controlling the conversion and fragmentation of peri-urban cultivated lands. Urban expansion and farmland loss are expected to continue in the future