A macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector

In this study a macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector was developed. The findings demonstrate that macroeconomic shocks have a large impact on credit losses. However, owing to a high level of current capitalisation, the South African banking sector is resilient to severe economic shocks. At the same time, banks are rather sensitive to changes in real interest rates and property prices due to the high share of mortgages at flexible interest rates in their credit portfolios.macro stress testing, financial stability, credit risk

The impact of the change from Basel II to Basel III on the profitability of the South African banking sector

The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of the change from Basel II to Basel III on the profitability of the South African banking sector. South African banks are regulated in accordance with the Basel Accords and, as such, this study reviews the literature on bank regulation and specifically the evolution of the Basel Accords. The 2008 global financial crisis exposed certain flaws in the global regulatory framework and paved the way for the introduction of Basel III, of which South Africa commenced implementation on 1 January 2013. As mentioned, the review of banking regulation literature will specifically focus on the changes from Basel II to Basel III, with a further focus on two of the key changes introduced by Basel III: the capital requirement amendments and the new liquidity ratios. The study examines the top five banks in South Africa, as these make up 91.1% of the industry's banking assets (as of December 2012). The top five banks are used to create a representative bank of the South African banking sector and an accounting model is performed using a DuPont analysis in order to measure profitability. With respect to the Basel III capital changes, the results show that a 2% increase in capital by increasing the equity-to-asset ratio and all else held equal will result in a decrease of 0.29% in return on equity (ROE) for the South African banking sector. With respect to the Basel III liquidity measures, a 25 basis decrease in maturity transformation, all else held equal, will translate into a 3.38% decrease in ROE. The study contributes to the recent literature on Basel III and profitability. The results will also benefit the South African banking industry and regulators when assessing the profitability impact of the new Basel regulations

Credit Risk and Securitisation in the South African Banking Sector

This paper investigates the relationship between credit risk and securitisation in the South African banking sector. Panel data analysis was used to analyse annual observations from four major South African banks for a sample period spinning from 2005 to 2014.  Results show that source of securitisation variation in the South African banks is capital, bank size and economic growth of the country. A positive impact of securitisation on credit risk was also discovered. The paper revealed that the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 had no effect on the securitization in the South African banking sector, and this is contrary to previous findings. This paper also found that size has a significant effect on capitalization, where big banks tend to securitise more and take on more credit risk compared to small banks. Therefore, banks should increase or maintain an acceptable capital to hedge against any unexpected risks, and proper systems should be established and adopted to encourage repayment of loans by borrows

Testing for competition in the South African banking sector

This paper employs the Panzar and Rosse (1987) and the Bresnahan models to determine the level of competition in the South African banking sector. This level of competition was tested during the period 1998 to 2008 for the Panzar and Rosse approach and from 1992 to 2008 for the Bresnahan model. We �find evidence of monopolistic competition in the South African banking sector. Our fi�ndings are consistent with those of Bikker et al (2012) for South Africa

The influence of social media service quality on client loyalty in the South African banking industry

The advent of the Internet during the past two decades has changed the way in which businesses operate. Social media networks such as Facebook have become an essential communication element for businesses to interact with clients. The impact and growth rates of Facebook and other forms of social media have made it imperative for all businesses to ensure they have social media strategies in place. Following social media business trends, banks across the world have included social media to market their services. Banks are now emphasising the offering of high client service quality in order to retain clients in this highly competitive environment. Thus, South African banks, as is the case with global banks, need to continuously assess the quality of the services offered to their clients in order to sustainably maintain or grow their market share or to fully utilise its commercial opportunities. This study determined the influence of social media service quality on client loyalty in the South African banking industry. The primary objective was to examine the extent to which social media service quality influence client loyalty in the South African banking industry. The study also determined if social media system availability, efficiency, fulfilment, and privacy has influence on the overall service quality of social media in the South African banking industry. In addition, the study examined the relationship between overall service quality and client loyalty intention in the South African banking industry. The study used a quantitative research approach to collect and analyse the data, and a descriptive research design was utilised for the purpose of this study. Data was collected from both primary and secondary sources of data. An online survey was conducted through Survey Monkey, via a Facebook page titled: Social media service quality in the South African banking industry. An online questionnaire was administered via the Facebook page. The study used a sample of 377 respondents who are Facebook users of the five major banks in South Africa. Analysis and interpretation of findings was done using both the descriptive and inferential statistical measures, with the help of Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) 24 and Lisrel (version 9). The electronic social media service quality (E-S-SERVQUAL) scale which consist of five constructs, namely; social media system availability, efficiency, fulfilment, privacy and overall service quality; and client loyalty intentions were the scales that were adopted for this study. All the scales used in this study were found to be reliable and valid. Findings of the research study proved that social media system availability, fulfilment, and privacy has a significant influence on the overall service quality of social media in the South African banking industry. In addition, findings of the research revealed that social media efficiency does not significantly influence overall service quality of social media in the South African banking industry. Furthermore, findings of the research also proved that the overall service quality of social media positively influences client loyalty intention in the South African banking industry. The study recommended that managers and marketers should constantly evaluate, monitor, and improve the overall service quality of social media offered to their clients, as it leads to a corresponding increase in overall client satisfaction, which in turn leads to client loyalty in the South African banking industry. However, further research studies may be conducted in other developing countries to gain a wider understanding on the influence of social media service quality on client loyalty in the banking industry

Testing for competition in the South African banking sector

This paper employs the Panzar and Rosse (1987) and the Bresnahan models to determine the level of competition in the South African banking sector. This level of competition was tested during the period 1998 to 2008 for the Panzar and Rosse approach and from 1992 to 2008 for the Bresnahan model. We �find evidence of monopolistic competition in the South African banking sector. Our fi�ndings are consistent with those of Bikker et al (2012) for South Africa

A macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector

In this study a macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector was developed. The findings demonstrate that macroeconomic shocks have a large impact on credit losses. However, owing to a high level of current capitalisation, the South African banking sector is resilient to severe economic shocks. At the same time, banks are rather sensitive to changes in real interest rates and property prices due to the high share of mortgages at flexible interest rates in their credit portfolios

Performance Of The South African Banking Sector Since 1994

This study investigates the impact of bank-specific variables and selected macroeconomic variables on the South African banking sector for the period 1994-2011 using the capital adequacy, asset quality, management, earnings, and liquidity (CAMEL) model of bank performance evaluation. The study employs data in annual frequency from South Africa’s four largest banks, namely, ABSA, First National Bank, Nedbank, and Standard Bank. These banks account for over 70% of South Africa’s banking assets. Using return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) as measures of bank performance, the study finds that all bank-specific variables are statistically significant determinants of bank performance. Specifically, the study shows that asset quality, management quality, and liquidity have a positive effect on both measures of bank performance, which is consistent with a priori theoretical expectations. Capital adequacy, however, exhibits a surprising significant negative relationship with ROA, while its relationship with ROE is significant and positive as expected. Except for interest rates (in the ROA model), unemployment rate (in the ROA model), and the rate of inflation (in the ROE model), the rest of the macroeconomic variables are statistically insignificant. The study reveals that bank performance is positively related to interest rates and negatively related to unemployment rates and interest rates

Sustainability in South African banking.

Thesis (MBA)-University of Natal, 2003.The local banking industry has many challenges to face in the newly democratized South Africa. This study reviews these challenges, with special reference to sustainable business practice. It commences with an overview of the global business environment and more specifically, the challenges facing the international financial services sector with respect to sustainability. The effects of globalisation, as well as modernization, are used as key influencers in determining the external global environment. The international background is used to determine those factors that filter through to the South African banking sector, which is viewed as a new participant to the global economy. Complemented with the above, a high level review is performed of the local specific challenges facing banks in post-apartheid South Africa. This includes the challenge of providing accessible banking to the traditionally un-banked, as well as the implementation of black economic empowerment in the local financial services sector. With the above background in mind local banks are being evaluated on what they are currently doing in leveraging of sustainability in producing stakeholder value. The five capitals framework has been used to identify the level of implementation of sustainability in the current business models of South African banks. This status quo has been used as the foundation for making suitable recommendations to meet both the local and global challenges identified in the first part of the study