Unbiased and Consistent Nested Sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo

We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods called Nested Sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo (NS-SMC), which reframes the Nested Sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. This new framework allows convergence results to be obtained in the setting when Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to produce new samples. An additional benefit is that marginal likelihood estimates are unbiased. In contrast to NS, the analysis of NS-SMC does not require the (unrealistic) assumption that the simulated samples be independent. As the original NS algorithm is a special case of NS-SMC, this provides insights as to why NS seems to produce accurate estimates despite a typical violation of its assumptions. For applications of NS-SMC, we give advice on tuning MCMC kernels in an automated manner via a preliminary pilot run, and present a new method for appropriately choosing the number of MCMC repeats at each iteration. Finally, a numerical study is conducted where the performance of NS-SMC and temperature-annealed SMC is compared on several challenging and realistic problems. MATLAB code for our experiments is made available at https://github.com/LeahPrice/SMC-NS .Comment: 45 pages, some minor typographical errors fixed since last versio

On Improvement in Estimating Population Parameter(s) Using Auxiliary Information

The purpose of writing this book is to suggest some improved estimators using auxiliary information in sampling schemes like simple random sampling and systematic sampling. This volume is a collection of five papers. The following problems have been discussed in the book: In chapter one an estimator in systematic sampling using auxiliary information is studied in the presence of non-response. In second chapter some improved estimators are suggested using auxiliary information. In third chapter some improved ratio-type estimators are suggested and their properties are studied under second order of approximation. In chapter four and five some estimators are proposed for estimating unknown population parameter(s) and their properties are studied. This book will be helpful for the researchers and students who are working in the field of finite population estimation.Comment: 63 pages, 8 tables. Educational Publishing & Journal of Matter Regularity (Beijing

Shrinkage Estimators in Online Experiments

We develop and analyze empirical Bayes Stein-type estimators for use in the estimation of causal effects in large-scale online experiments. While online experiments are generally thought to be distinguished by their large sample size, we focus on the multiplicity of treatment groups. The typical analysis practice is to use simple differences-in-means (perhaps with covariate adjustment) as if all treatment arms were independent. In this work we develop consistent, small bias, shrinkage estimators for this setting. In addition to achieving lower mean squared error these estimators retain important frequentist properties such as coverage under most reasonable scenarios. Modern sequential methods of experimentation and optimization such as multi-armed bandit optimization (where treatment allocations adapt over time to prior responses) benefit from the use of our shrinkage estimators. Exploration under empirical Bayes focuses more efficiently on near-optimal arms, improving the resulting decisions made under uncertainty. We demonstrate these properties by examining seventeen large-scale experiments conducted on Facebook from April to June 2017

2.5K-Graphs: from Sampling to Generation

Understanding network structure and having access to realistic graphs plays a central role in computer and social networks research. In this paper, we propose a complete, and practical methodology for generating graphs that resemble a real graph of interest. The metrics of the original topology we target to match are the joint degree distribution (JDD) and the degree-dependent average clustering coefficient ($\bar{c}(k)$). We start by developing efficient estimators for these two metrics based on a node sample collected via either independence sampling or random walks. Then, we process the output of the estimators to ensure that the target properties are realizable. Finally, we propose an efficient algorithm for generating topologies that have the exact target JDD and a $\bar{c}(k)$ close to the target. Extensive simulations using real-life graphs show that the graphs generated by our methodology are similar to the original graph with respect to, not only the two target metrics, but also a wide range of other topological metrics; furthermore, our generator is order of magnitudes faster than state-of-the-art techniques

Combining multiple observational data sources to estimate causal effects

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of multiple data sources for statistical analyses. We consider estimation of causal effects combining big main data with unmeasured confounders and smaller validation data with supplementary information on these confounders. Under the unconfoundedness assumption with completely observed confounders, the smaller validation data allow for constructing consistent estimators for causal effects, but the big main data can only give error-prone estimators in general. However, by leveraging the information in the big main data in a principled way, we can improve the estimation efficiencies yet preserve the consistencies of the initial estimators based solely on the validation data. Our framework applies to asymptotically normal estimators, including the commonly-used regression imputation, weighting, and matching estimators, and does not require a correct specification of the model relating the unmeasured confounders to the observed variables. We also propose appropriate bootstrap procedures, which makes our method straightforward to implement using software routines for existing estimators