Risk factors and indicators for engagement in violent extremism

Research on terrorism is increasingly empirical and a number of significant advancements have been made. One such evolution is the emergent understanding of risk factors and indicators for engagement in violent extremism. Beyond contributing to academic knowledge, this has important real-world implications. Notably, the development of terrorism risk assessment tools, as well as behavioural threat assessment in counterterrorism. This thesis makes a unique contribution to the literature in two key ways. First, there is a general consensus that no single, stable profile of a terrorist exists. Relying on profiles of static risk factors to inform judgements of risk and/or threat may therefore be problematic, particularly given the observed multi- and equi-finality. One way forward may be to identify configurations of risk factors and tie these to the theorised causal mechanisms they speak to. Second, there has been little attempt to measure the prevalence of potential risk factors for violent extremism in a general population, i.e. base rates. Establishing general population base rates will help develop more scientifically rigorous putative risk factors, increase transparency in the provision of evidence, minimise potential bias in decision-making, improve risk communication, and allow for risk assessments based on Bayesian principles. This thesis consists of four empirical chapters. First, I inductively disaggregate dynamic person-exposure patterns (PEPs) of risk factors in 125 cases of lone-actor terrorism. Further analysis articulates four configurations of individual-level susceptibilities which interact differentially with situational, and exposure factors. The PEP typology ties patterns of risk factors to theorised causal mechanisms specified by a previously designed Risk Analysis Framework (RAF). This may be more stable grounds for risk assessment however than relying on the presence or absence of single factors. However, with no knowledge of base rates, the relevance of seemingly pertinent risk factors remains unclear. However, how to develop base rates is of equal concern. Hence, second, I develop the Base Rate Survey and compare two survey questioning designs, direct questioning and the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT). Under the conditions described, direct questioning yields the most appropriate estimates. Third, I compare the base rates generated via direct questioning to those observed across a sample of lone-actor terrorists. Lone-actor terrorists demonstrated more propensity, situational, and exposure risk factors, suggesting these offenders may differ from the general population in measurable ways. Finally, moving beyond examining the prevalence rates of single factors, I collect a second sample in order to model the relations among these risk factors as a complex, dynamic system. To do so, the Base Rate Survey: UK is distributed to a representative sample of 1,500 participants from the UK. I introduce psychometric network modelling to terrorism studies which visualises the interactions among risk factors as a complex system via network graphs

Developing mathematical models of complex social processes: radicalisation and criminality development

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the use to which mathematical modelling techniques can be put in answering hard questions in social science. The specific area that this thesis focuses on is the development of an individual's propensity for crime or terrorism, with the primary research question answered being: are the process by which an individual develops the propensity to commit crime and the radicalisation process indistinguishable? The answer to this question may assist policy makers and practitioners in the fields of counter-terrorism and crime prevention develop more effective interventions, but it is a difficult question to answer using techniques rooted in social science alone, as crime and terrorism are the outcomes of complex social processes that form part of large socio-ecological systems. The thesis answers this question through the use of mathematical modelling. A model is developed based on the Individual Vulnerability, Exposure and Emergence (IVEE) theoretical framework for radicalisation. This model is realised as a computer simulation imitating the process by which an individual develops the propensity to commit an act of crime or terrorism, and is parameterised using data from secondary sources. The behaviour of the simulation is then explored to determine whether, with sufficient data, it could potentially be of practical use to practitioners: for example, the simulation is used to explore whether crime prevention interventions might also be effective for countering radicalisation, or vice versa. It is concluded that while the simulations developed in this thesis are still theoretical, the models themselves have the potential for further development, and the methodology could be applied to a range of alternative fields

State of the art 2015: a literature review of social media intelligence capabilities for counter-terrorism

Overview This paper is a review of how information and insight can be drawn from open social media sources. It focuses on the specific research techniques that have emerged, the capabilities they provide, the possible insights they offer, and the ethical and legal questions they raise. These techniques are considered relevant and valuable in so far as they can help to maintain public safety by preventing terrorism, preparing for it, protecting the public from it and pursuing its perpetrators. The report also considers how far this can be achieved against the backdrop of radically changing technology and public attitudes towards surveillance. This is an updated version of a 2013 report paper on the same subject, State of the Art. Since 2013, there have been significant changes in social media, how it is used by terrorist groups, and the methods being developed to make sense of it.  The paper is structured as follows: Part 1 is an overview of social media use, focused on how it is used by groups of interest to those involved in counter-terrorism. This includes new sections on trends of social media platforms; and a new section on Islamic State (IS). Part 2 provides an introduction to the key approaches of social media intelligence (henceforth ‘SOCMINT’) for counter-terrorism. Part 3 sets out a series of SOCMINT techniques. For each technique a series of capabilities and insights are considered, the validity and reliability of the method is considered, and how they might be applied to counter-terrorism work explored. Part 4 outlines a number of important legal, ethical and practical considerations when undertaking SOCMINT work

Transferring prisoners within the EU framework: its cosmopolitan reflections and existing European detention norms

A perverse side-effect of our interconnected world is that also crime crosses more and more borders. As a result, judicial cooperation in criminal matters is crucial before and after a criminal sentence. The increased global connectivity also gave rise to new paradigms in social sciences. As such, the paradigm of cosmopolitanism has been researched extensively in social sciences but has been largely neglected in criminology. By analyzing case law, European detention norms and EU legal instruments the submission critically evaluates cosmopolitanism in the area of EU judicial cooperation in criminal matters and more specifically to the transfer of prisoners. Cosmopolitanism is perfectly reflected in the mutual recognition principle as the cornerstone to develop the EU area of freedom, security and justice, based on notions of equivalence and trust. This principle is justified because every member state signed the European Convention of Human Rights and is a party of the EU Charter on Human Rights. On the other hand, reality revealed that mutual recognition is not absolute and mutual trust cannot be blind. An IRCP study, published in 2011, highlighted the various and often detrimental material prison conditions in different member states. These variances undermine the assumed mutual trust between member states although European detention norms - such as the European Prison Rules and CPT reports’ already exist. These norms aren’t legally binding and are still considered as “soft law”, simultaneously they gain importance due to increased reference in the ECtHR judgments. The cosmopolitan outlook by the member states related to the transfer of prisoners is in this submission highlighted as being both problematic and promising. Hereby it appears as if the EU rhetoric being a “unity in diversity”, by applying mutual recognition, is dominantly used to accommodate member states purposes rather than giving a central role to the individual

Risk- and Protective Factors for Violent Extremist Intentions

Progress within the field of radicalisation is evident. Yet while research increasingly adopts a quantitative approach to studying radicalisation processes, there is no sound empirical evidence base on the risk and protective factors for violent extremism and much research is not fit for practice. Day-to-day risk assessment and management of individuals deemed to be a potential risk to national security forms a core component of counter-terrorism. Each phase of counter-terrorism risk assessment and management requires state-of-the-art science for the identification of putative risk and protective factors, and to understand how such factors are functionally linked to violent extremism. This thesis provides a unique contribution to these research endeavours in several important ways. First, in order to explain why individuals radicalise, we have to turn our focus towards those risk factors and underlying mechanisms, which explain why and how certain individuals come to develop extremist propensities. Thus, this thesis’ main aim is to study risk and protective factors for the development of violent extremist propensities. Second, terrorism studies is over-reliant on secondary data. By conducting two unique large-scale nationally representative general population surveys, this thesis contributes towards establishing a robust empirical knowledge base. These are one of the first such surveys conducted within the field of violent extremism research. Third, radicalisation trajectories and engagement in violent extremism are characterised by complex constellations of risk as well as protective factors. Risk factors for one risk specification may not equally apply to others and the conditional and contextual nature of various factors need to be taken into consideration, which necessitates more complex analyses of patterns of relationships. This thesis draws on a range of structural equation models, conditional mediation models and interaction analyses, which allow for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms and complex configurations of various risk and protective factors. The analytical designs embedded throughout this thesis are some of the first to test such interactions in an empirical manner. Fourth, this thesis uses an integrative framework which examines not just risk but also protective factors for violent extremism and draws on a wide range of validated theories from different disciplines to strengthen the explanation of relationships between factors. By utilising models with several risk/protective factors, this thesis overcomes some of the 'problem of specificity', as it delivers plausible answers as to why the vast majority of individuals, who are experiencing particular conditions or grievances do not develop violent extremist intentions. Such research designs may be able to identify those factors that can inform prevention and intervention programs. Fifth, radicalisation is a complex and multifaceted process with diverse pathways and outcomes to it. This inherent complexity renders radicalisation, as a construct, difficult to operationalise. A key part of conducting quantitative research is the development of adequate and validated instruments. Thus, by developing and validating psychometrically sound instruments, this thesis contributes towards rigorous quantitative research on violent extremism. This thesis addresses these issues through a number of novel research designs. First, I conduct a systematic review and synthesise the existing evidence on quantitative risk and protective factors for different radicalisation outcomes. However, several gaps as well as conceptual and methodological issues are identified, which are addressed in the following chapters. Second, I conduct a German nationally representative survey on violent extremism, and I apply structural equation modeling to employ a conceptually integrated approach to studying the individual and environmental-level determinants of differential vulnerability to extremism. The findings demonstrate the profound effect of person-environment reciprocity and, thereby, highlight key individual, developmental and social mechanisms involved in the development of extremist propensities. Increasingly, we are witnessing a seeming convergence between belief in conspiracy theories and ideological extremes. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and violent extremism. Therefore, third, this thesis conducts a unique quantitative analysis on this relationship and the findings highlight the contingent effects of risk and protective factors, which are defined as ‘interactive’ or ‘buffering’ protective factors. This has major implications in regard to prevention strategies of ‘at-risk’ populations. Fourth, based on a large-scale UK nationally representative survey, I develop and validate a novel psychometric tool to measure individuals’ misogynistic attitudes. Fifth, recent incidents have demonstrated that misogynistic beliefs can lead to acts of mass violence. This thesis provides the first survey-based study on the relationship between misogyny and violent extremism by examining the underlying mechanisms and contingent effects linking misogyny to (extremist) violence. Collectively, the dissertation’s results demonstrate that multiple factors likely contribute to individual pathways into violent extremism. No single risk or protective factor exists that can explain its genesis. This has significant implications for practice and policy. Preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) programs must take account of the constellation of multiple factors that interact with (and sometimes enable or disable one another) rather than solely focusing upon single risk factors. These findings stress the need to implement evidenced based prevention and interventions programs, which have to address these risk factors early on, before they properly take hold and become so deeply ingrained that they are almost intractable. Therefore, increased focus of P/CVE interventions should be put on the indirect, long-term and life-course oriented protective factors

Angry white rebel? Study on the mechanisms and processes of participation in extreme-right groups

This research project focuses on the topic of participation in extreme-right movements with the aim to obtain an understanding of the underlying mechanisms and processes leading to engagement. International and national examples such as the case of Anders Behring Breivik, the NSU, Hans Van Temsche and the BBET have indicated the damage right-wing extremist may cause to life and property. Although official instances recognize that extreme-right groups are present in Flanders, the phenomenon of extreme-right participation has not received much attention within Flemish criminological research. Therefore, this research supports on a multi-method approach to explain and interpret extreme-right group participation. In the first quantitative study we build on an integrative framework to study moral support for right-wing extremism and the effective use of political violence. In the second qualitative study, 23 interviews were conducted with (former) members of extreme-right groups (cf. life story technique of Atkinson, 1998)

'Climate truancy'? Media representation of Belgian youth protests

Green criminology studies the activities contributing to animal and non-animal environmental harms. Beyond the study of harms, another area of interest concerns those activities which have the potential to actually make a positive impact to the environment but which are threatened by criminalization or other forms of repression –such as for instance resulting from underreporting, downplaying or other negative presentation by the media. Our analysis seeks to explore this phenomenon, focusing on the 20-week protest cycle mobilized by young people in Belgium and how this protest was represented in the (Dutch-)written press. A dataset of 382 news articles was included in this analysis. We found that the news reporting acknowledged the development of the protests in Belgium, and that the protesters were an important voice included in that reporting. Substantive climate-related issues were rarely featured, and although there were some attempts to understand the contribution or impact of the protests, the media representation was primarily centred on the protesters’ age and on their capacity or right to protest during school hours

Diplomacy and the politics of fear: the 21st century challenges to the theory and practice of Diplomacy and International Relations

Conflicts, political unrest, mass migration and the rise of violent extremism by non-state actors are features that have characterized the early 21st century. A huge challenge to world peace and security is posed by volatile economic and political conditions around the world. This situation has led to a growing tension in many inter-state relations which arguably has underpinned the rise of groups such as Al Qaeda and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in the Middle East, the Boko Haram in West Africa, and Al Shabaab in East Africa. Arguably, there is a growing sense of fear and unease in every sphere of social, economic and political life. More than at any other time in human history, the future seems uncertain. Relationships and trusts between states and their citizens are breaking down; relations, mutual cooperation and connections between states are under strain; there is growing sense of disillusionment by the governed of the ability of governments and mainstream political establishments to address their concerns and meet their needs. The feeling of uncertainty and general fear for the future is real. While these may not necessarily be universally held views, there is a growing indication that people and communities around the world are feeling dissatisfied and may be threatened by mainstream political systems. Just when it is most needed, diplomacy and diplomatic practice seem to be taking the back seat in the face of growing conflicts. This conference examines the socio-economic and political environment that creates social and political discontent, political apathy, the weakening of inter-state relations, and the general sense of fear