Social aggravation estimation to seismic hazard using classical fuzzy methods

In the last years, from a disasters perspective, risk has been dimensioned to allow a better management. However, this conceptualization turns out to be limited or constrained, by the generalized use of a fragmented risk scheme, which always consider first, the approach and applicability of each discipline involved. To be congruent with risk definition, it is necessary to consider an integral frame, and social factors must be included. Even those indicators that could tell something about the organizational and institutional capacity to withstand natural hazards, should be invited to the table. In this article, we analyze one of the most important elements in risk formation: the social aggravation, which can be regarded as the convolution of the resilience capacity and social fragility of an urban center. We performed a social aggravation estimation over Barcelona, Spain and Bogota, Colombia considering a particular hazard in the form of seismic activity. The Aggravation coefficient was achieved through a Mamdami fuzzy approach, supported by well-established fuzzy theory, which is characterized by a high expressive power and an intuitive human-like manner.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Holistic disaster risk evaluation for the urban risk management plan of Manizales, Colombia

Disaster risk depends on both the physical vulnerability and a wide range of social, economic, and environmental aspects of a society. For a better risk understanding, a holistic or integrated perspective was considered when risk was assessed for the city of Manizales, Colombia. This assessment accounts not only for the expected physical damage and loss, but also for the socioeconomic vulnerability factors that favor secondorder effects in a disaster. This comprehensive approach allows the identification of different aspects related to physical vulnerability, social fragility, and lack of resilience that can be improved, thus enhancing integrated disaster risk management actions. The outcomes of this comprehensive assessment are currently being used as input to update the disaster risk management plan of Manizales.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Holistic Disaster Risk Evaluation for the Urban Risk Management Plan of Manizales, Colombia

Disaster risk depends on both the physical vulnerability and a wide range of social, economic, and environmental aspects of a society. For a better risk understanding, a holistic or integrated perspective was considered when risk was assessed for the city of Manizales, Colombia. This assessment accounts not only for the expected physical damage and loss, but also for the socioeconomic vulnerability factors that favor second order effects in a disaster. This comprehensive approach allows the identification of different aspects related to physical vulnerability, social fragility, and lack of resilience that can be improved, thus enhancing integrated disaster risk management actions. The outcomes of this comprehensive assessment are currently being used as input to update the disaster risk management plan of Manizales

Integral seismic risk assessment through fuzzy models

The usage of indicators as constituent parts of composite indices is an extended practice in many fields of knowledge. Even if rigorous statistical analyses are implemented, many of the methodologies follow simple arithmetic assumptions to aggregate indicators to build an index. One of the consequences of such assumptions can be the concealment of the influence of some of the composite index’s components. We developed a fuzzy method that aggregates indicators using non-linear methods and, in this paper, compare it to a well-known example in the field of risk assessment, called Moncho’s equation, which combines physical and social components and uses a linear aggregation method to estimate a level of seismic risk. By comparing the spatial pattern of the risk level obtained from these two methodologies, we were able to evaluate to what extent a fuzzy approach allows a more realistic representation of how social vulnerability levels might shape the seismic risk panorama in an urban environment. We found that, in some cases, this approach can lead to risk level values that are up to 80% greater than those obtained using a linear aggregation method for the same areas.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Social Aggravation Estimation to Seismic Hazard Using Classical Fuzzy Methods

In the years, from a disasters perspective, risk has been dimensioned to allow a better management. However, this conceptualization turns out to be limited or constrained by the generalized use of a fragmented risk framework, which always consider first the approach and applicability of each discipline involved. To be congruent with risk definition, it is necessary to consider an integral framework, and social factors must be included. Even those indicators that could tell something about the organizational and institutional capacity to withstand natural hazards, should be invited to the table. In this article, we analyze one of the most important elements in risk formation: the social aggravation, which can be regarded as the convolution of the resilience capacity and social fragility of an urban center. We performed a social aggravation estimation over Barcelona, Spain, and Bogota, Colombia, considering a particular hazard in the form of seismic activity. The aggravation coefficient was formulated through a Mamdami fuzzy approach, supported by well-established fuzzy theory, which is characterized by a high expressive power and an intuitive humanlike manner

Social aggravation estimation to seismic hazard using classical fuzzy methods

In the last years, from a disasters perspective, risk has been dimensioned to allow a better management. However, this conceptualization turns out to be limited or constrained, by the generalized use of a fragmented risk scheme, which always consider first, the approach and applicability of each discipline involved. To be congruent with risk definition, it is necessary to consider an integral frame, and social factors must be included. Even those indicators that could tell something about the organizational and institutional capacity to withstand natural hazards, should be invited to the table. In this article, we analyze one of the most important elements in risk formation: the social aggravation, which can be regarded as the convolution of the resilience capacity and social fragility of an urban center. We performed a social aggravation estimation over Barcelona, Spain and Bogota, Colombia considering a particular hazard in the form of seismic activity. The Aggravation coefficient was achieved through a Mamdami fuzzy approach, supported by well-established fuzzy theory, which is characterized by a high expressive power and an intuitive human-like manner.Peer Reviewe