Efficient and effective solution procedures for order acceptance and capacity planning.

This paper investigates dynamic order acceptance and capacity planning under limited regular and non-regular resources. Our goal is to maximize the profits of the accepted projects within a finite planning horizon. The way in which the projects are planned affects their payout time and, as a consequence, there investment revenues as well as the available capacity for future arriving projects. In general, project proposals arise dynamically to the organization, and their actual characteristics are only revealed upon arrival. Dynamic solution approaches are therefore most likely to obtain good results. Although the problem can theoretically be solved to optimality as a stochastic dynamic program, real-life problem instances are too difficult to be solved exactly within areas on able amount of time. Efficient and effective heuristics are thus required that supply a response without delay.For this reason, this paper considers both 'single-pass' algorithms as well as approximate dynamic-programming algorithms and investigates their suitability to solve the problem. Simulation experiments compare the performance of our procedures to a firrst-come, first-served policy that is commonly used in practice.Approximate dynamic programming; Capacity planning; multi-project; Order acceptance; Simulation;

Look-ahead strategies for dynamic pickup and delivery problems

In this paper we consider a dynamic full truckload pickup and delivery problem with time-windows. Jobs arrive over time and are offered in a second-price auction. Individual vehicles bid on these jobs and maintain a schedule of the jobs they have won. We propose a pricing and scheduling strategy based on dynamic programming where not only the direct costs of a job insertion are taken into account, but also the impact on future opportunities. Simulation is used to evaluate the benefits of pricing opportunities compared to simple pricing strategies in various market settings. Numerical results show that the proposed approach provides high quality solutions, in terms of profits, capacity utilization, and delivery reliability

Stochastic Combinatorial Optimization via Poisson Approximation

We study several stochastic combinatorial problems, including the expected utility maximization problem, the stochastic knapsack problem and the stochastic bin packing problem. A common technical challenge in these problems is to optimize some function of the sum of a set of random variables. The difficulty is mainly due to the fact that the probability distribution of the sum is the convolution of a set of distributions, which is not an easy objective function to work with. To tackle this difficulty, we introduce the Poisson approximation technique. The technique is based on the Poisson approximation theorem discovered by Le Cam, which enables us to approximate the distribution of the sum of a set of random variables using a compound Poisson distribution. We first study the expected utility maximization problem introduced recently [Li and Despande, FOCS11]. For monotone and Lipschitz utility functions, we obtain an additive PTAS if there is a multidimensional PTAS for the multi-objective version of the problem, strictly generalizing the previous result. For the stochastic bin packing problem (introduced in [Kleinberg, Rabani and Tardos, STOC97]), we show there is a polynomial time algorithm which uses at most the optimal number of bins, if we relax the size of each bin and the overflow probability by eps. For stochastic knapsack, we show a 1+eps-approximation using eps extra capacity, even when the size and reward of each item may be correlated and cancelations of items are allowed. This generalizes the previous work [Balghat, Goel and Khanna, SODA11] for the case without correlation and cancelation. Our algorithm is also simpler. We also present a factor 2+eps approximation algorithm for stochastic knapsack with cancelations. the current known approximation factor of 8 [Gupta, Krishnaswamy, Molinaro and Ravi, FOCS11].Comment: 42 pages, 1 figure, Preliminary version appears in the Proceeding of the 45th ACM Symposium on the Theory of Computing (STOC13

Modelling and solving healthcare decision making problems under uncertainty

The efficient management of healthcare services is a great challenge for healthcare managers because of ageing populations, rising healthcare costs, and complex operation and service delivery systems. The challenge is intensified due to the fact that healthcare systems involve various uncertainties. Operations Research (OR) can be used to model and solve several healthcare decision making problems at strategic, tactical and also operational levels. Among different stages of healthcare decision making, resoure allocation and capacity planning play an important role for the overall performance of the complex systems. This thesis aims to develop modelling and solution tools to support healthcare decision making process within dynamic and stochastic systems. In particular, we are concerned with stochastic optimization problems, namely i) capacity planning in a stem-cell donation network, ii) resource allocation in a healthcare outsourcing network and iii) real-time surgery planning. The patient waiting times and operational costs are considered as the main performance indicators in these healthcare settings. The uncertainties arising in patient arrivals and service durations are integrated into the decision making as the most significant factors affecting the overall performance of the underlying healthcare systems. We use stochastic programming, a collection of OR tools for decision-making under uncertainty, to obtain robust solutions against these uncertainties. Due to complexities of the underlying stochastic optimization models such as large real-life problem instances and non-convexity, these models cannot be solved efficiently by exact methods within reasonable computation time. Thus, we employ approximate solution approaches to obtain feasible decisions close to the optimum. The computational experiments are designed to illustrate the performance of the proposed approximate methods. Moreover, we analyze the numerical results to provide some managerial insights to aid the decision-making processes. The numerical results show the benefits of integrating the uncertainty into decision making process and the impact of various factors in the overall performance of the healthcare systems

Decomposition Algorithms for Stochastic Programming on a Computational Grid

We describe algorithms for two-stage stochastic linear programming with recourse and their implementation on a grid computing platform. In particular, we examine serial and asynchronous versions of the L-shaped method and a trust-region method. The parallel platform of choice is the dynamic, heterogeneous, opportunistic platform provided by the Condor system. The algorithms are of master-worker type (with the workers being used to solve second-stage problems, and the MW runtime support library (which supports master-worker computations) is key to the implementation. Computational results are presented on large sample average approximations of problems from the literature.Comment: 44 page

Decision making under uncertainties for air traffic flow management

A goal of air traffic flow management is to alleviate projected demand-capacity imbalances at airports and in en route airspace through formulating and applying strategic Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs). As a new tool in the Federal Aviation Administration\u27s NextGen portfolio, the Collaborative Trajectory Options Programs (CTOP) combines many components from its predecessors and brings two important new features: first, it can manage multiple constrained regions in an integrated way with a single program; second, it allows flight operators to submit a set of desired reroute options (called a Trajectory Options Set or TOS), which provides great flexibility and efficiency. One of the major research questions in TMI optimization is how to determine the planned acceptance rates for airports or congested airspace regions (Flow Constrained Areas or FCA) to minimize system-wide costs. There are two important input characteristics that need to be considered in developing optimization models to set acceptance rates in a CTOP: first, uncertain airspace capacities, which result from imperfect weather forecast; second, uncertain demand, which results from flights being geographically redistributed after their TOS options are processed. Although there are other demand disturbances to consider, such as popup flights, flight cancellations, and flight substitutions, their effect on demand estimates at FCAs will likely be far less than that of rerouting from TOSs. Hence, to cope with capacity and demand uncertainties, a decision-making under uncertainty problem needs to be solved. In this dissertation, three families of stochastic programming models are proposed. The first family of models, which are called aggregate stochastic models and are formulated as multi-commodity flow models, can optimally plan ground and air delay for groups of flights given filed route choice of each flight. The second family of models, which are called disaggregate stochastic models and directly control each individual flight, can give the theoretical lower bounds for the very general reroute, ground-, and air-holding problem with multiple congested airspace regions and multiple route options. The third family of models, called disaggregate-aggregate models, can be solved more efficiently compared with the second class of models, and can directly control the queue size at each congested region. Since we assume route choice is given or route can be optimized along with flight delay in a centralized manner, these three families of models, although can provide informative benchmarks, are not compatible with current CTOP software implementation and have not addressed the demand uncertainty problem. The simulation-based optimization model, which can use stochastic programming models as part of its heuristic, addresses the demand uncertainty issue by simulating CTOP TOS allocation in the optimization process, and can give good suboptimal solution to the practical CTOP rate planning problem. Airline side research problems in CTOP are also briefly discussed in this dissertation. In particular, this work quantifies the route misassignment cost due to the current imperfect Relative Trajectory Cost (RTC) design. The main contribution of this dissertation is that it gives the first algorithm that optimizes the CTOP rate under demand and capacity uncertainty and is compatible with the Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) CTOP framework. This work is not only important in providing much-needed decision support capabilities for effective application of CTOP, but also valuable for the general multiple constrained airspace resources multiple reroutes optimization problem and the design of future air traffic flow management program

MODELS AND SOLUTION ALGORITHMS FOR EQUITABLE RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN AIR TRAFFIC FLOW MANAGEMENT

Population growth and economic development lead to increasing demand for travel and pose mobility challenges on capacity-limited air traffic networks. The U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) has been operated near the capacity, and air traffic congestion is expected to remain as a top concern for the related system operators, passengers and airlines. This dissertation develops a number of model reformulations and efficient solution algorithms to address resource allocation problems in air traffic flow management, while explicitly accounting for equitable objectives in order to encourage further collaborations by different stakeholders. This dissertation first develops a bi-criteria optimization model to offload excess demand from different competing airlines in the congested airspace when the predicted traffic demand is higher than available capacity. Computationally efficient network flow models with side constraints are developed and extensively tested using datasets obtained from the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) database (now known as the Traffic Flow Management System). Representative Pareto-optimal tradeoff frontiers are consequently generated to allow decision-makers to identify best-compromising solutions based on relative weights and systematical considerations of both efficiency and equity. This dissertation further models and solves an integrated flight re-routing problem on an airspace network. Given a network of airspace sectors with a set of waypoint entries and a set of flights belonging to different air carriers, the optimization model aims to minimize the total flight travel time subject to a set of flight routing equity, operational and safety requirements. A time-dependent network flow programming formulation is proposed with stochastic sector capacities and rerouting equity for each air carrier as side constraints. A Lagrangian relaxation based method is used to dualize these constraints and decompose the original complex problem into a sequence of single flight rerouting/scheduling problems. Finally, within a multi-objective utility maximization framework, the dissertation proposes several practically useful heuristic algorithms for the long-term airport slot assignment problem. Alternative models are constructed to decompose the complex model into a series of hourly assignment sub-problems. A new paired assignment heuristic algorithm is developed to adapt the round robin scheduling principle for improving fairness measures across different airlines. Computational results are presented to show the strength of each proposed modeling approach