Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know

Uncertainty of late has become an increasingly important and controversial topic in water resource management, and natural resources management in general. Diverse managing goals, changing environmental conditions, conflicting interests, and lack of predictability are some of the characteristics that decision makers have to face. This has resulted in the application and development of strategies such as adaptive management, which proposes flexibility and capability to adapt to unknown conditions as a way of dealing with uncertainties. However, this shift in ideas about managing has not always been accompanied by a general shift in the way uncertainties are understood and handled. To improve this situation, we believe it is necessary to recontextualize uncertainty in a broader way¿relative to its role, meaning, and relationship with participants in decision making¿because it is from this understanding that problems and solutions emerge. Under this view, solutions do not exclusively consist of eliminating or reducing uncertainty, but of reframing the problems as such so that they convey a different meaning. To this end, we propose a relational approach to uncertainty analysis. Here, we elaborate on this new conceptualization of uncertainty, and indicate some implications of this view for strategies for dealing with uncertainty in water management. We present an example as an illustration of these concepts. Key words: adaptive management; ambiguity; frames; framing; knowledge relationship; multiple knowledge frames; natural resource management; negotiation; participation; social learning; uncertainty; water managemen

Herbert Simon's decision-making approach: Investigation of cognitive processes in experts

This is a post print version of the article. The official published can be obtained from the links below - PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.Herbert Simon's research endeavor aimed to understand the processes that participate in human decision making. However, despite his effort to investigate this question, his work did not have the impact in the “decision making” community that it had in other fields. His rejection of the assumption of perfect rationality, made in mainstream economics, led him to develop the concept of bounded rationality. Simon's approach also emphasized the limitations of the cognitive system, the change of processes due to expertise, and the direct empirical study of cognitive processes involved in decision making. In this article, we argue that his subsequent research program in problem solving and expertise offered critical tools for studying decision-making processes that took into account his original notion of bounded rationality. Unfortunately, these tools were ignored by the main research paradigms in decision making, such as Tversky and Kahneman's biased rationality approach (also known as the heuristics and biases approach) and the ecological approach advanced by Gigerenzer and others. We make a proposal of how to integrate Simon's approach with the main current approaches to decision making. We argue that this would lead to better models of decision making that are more generalizable, have higher ecological validity, include specification of cognitive processes, and provide a better understanding of the interaction between the characteristics of the cognitive system and the contingencies of the environment

An information-theoretic on-line update principle for perception-action coupling

Inspired by findings of sensorimotor coupling in humans and animals, there has recently been a growing interest in the interaction between action and perception in robotic systems [Bogh et al., 2016]. Here we consider perception and action as two serial information channels with limited information-processing capacity. We follow [Genewein et al., 2015] and formulate a constrained optimization problem that maximizes utility under limited information-processing capacity in the two channels. As a solution we obtain an optimal perceptual channel and an optimal action channel that are coupled such that perceptual information is optimized with respect to downstream processing in the action module. The main novelty of this study is that we propose an online optimization procedure to find bounded-optimal perception and action channels in parameterized serial perception-action systems. In particular, we implement the perceptual channel as a multi-layer neural network and the action channel as a multinomial distribution. We illustrate our method in a NAO robot simulator with a simplified cup lifting task.Comment: 8 pages, 2017 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS

Hybridization of multi-objective deterministic particle swarm with derivative-free local searches

The paper presents a multi-objective derivative-free and deterministic global/local hybrid algorithm for the efficient and effective solution of simulation-based design optimization (SBDO) problems. The objective is to show how the hybridization of two multi-objective derivative-free global and local algorithms achieves better performance than the separate use of the two algorithms in solving specific SBDO problems for hull-form design. The proposed method belongs to the class of memetic algorithms, where the global exploration capability of multi-objective deterministic particle swarm optimization is enriched by exploiting the local search accuracy of a derivative-free multi-objective line-search method. To the authors best knowledge, studies are still limited on memetic, multi-objective, deterministic, derivative-free, and evolutionary algorithms for an effective and efficient solution of SBDO for hull-form design. The proposed formulation manages global and local searches based on the hypervolume metric. The hybridization scheme uses two parameters to control the local search activation and the number of function calls used by the local algorithm. The most promising values of these parameters were identified using forty analytical tests representative of the SBDO problem of interest. The resulting hybrid algorithm was finally applied to two SBDO problems for hull-form design. For both analytical tests and SBDO problems, the hybrid method achieves better performance than its global and local counterparts

A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and eco- nomics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptual- ization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering

Modeling the Human Decision Making Process in Maritime Interdiction Using Conceptual Blending Theory

Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) papers and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation (BRIMS)This paper describes a model of the human decision-making process in maritime interdiction tactical operation using conceptual blending theory (CBT) and software blending mechanism. CBT explains how humans think using blending operations on mental spaces. This paper uses CBT to model Boyd’s Observation-Orientation- Decision-Act Loop Theory, a mental process used by military commanders to make decisions. The software blending mechanism is implemented using the Naval Postgraduate School’s first-generation Software Blending library. Military expert’s experiences were captured using a similar strategy implemented in the threat assessment model created by Liebhaber and Feher. Probability Estimates of Event (PEoE) is used to represent the significant of each possible tactic used by potential threats. Several PEoE are used to represent the mental patterns for recognizing a threat situation. Finally, decisions are derived using linear assignment, an optimality approach that considers threat attack probability, goals and interdiction resource effectiveness. The model was tested in a simulated maritime threat environment in order to evaluate its ability to coordinate interdictions by patrol crafts. These test results were reviewed by experienced naval warfare officers who gave feedback on the quality of the software generated decisions

Dynamic Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Time Series Forecasting

We discuss model and forecast combination in time series forecasting. A foundational Bayesian perspective based on agent opinion analysis theory defines a new framework for density forecast combination, and encompasses several existing forecast pooling methods. We develop a novel class of dynamic latent factor models for time series forecast synthesis; simulation-based computation enables implementation. These models can dynamically adapt to time-varying biases, miscalibration and inter-dependencies among multiple models or forecasters. A macroeconomic forecasting study highlights the dynamic relationships among synthesized forecast densities, as well as the potential for improved forecast accuracy at multiple horizons