Collective dynamics of belief evolution under cognitive coherence and social conformity

Human history has been marked by social instability and conflict, often driven by the irreconcilability of opposing sets of beliefs, ideologies, and religious dogmas. The dynamics of belief systems has been studied mainly from two distinct perspectives, namely how cognitive biases lead to individual belief rigidity and how social influence leads to social conformity. Here we propose a unifying framework that connects cognitive and social forces together in order to study the dynamics of societal belief evolution. Each individual is endowed with a network of interacting beliefs that evolves through interaction with other individuals in a social network. The adoption of beliefs is affected by both internal coherence and social conformity. Our framework explains how social instabilities can arise in otherwise homogeneous populations, how small numbers of zealots with highly coherent beliefs can overturn societal consensus, and how belief rigidity protects fringe groups and cults against invasion from mainstream beliefs, allowing them to persist and even thrive in larger societies. Our results suggest that strong consensus may be insufficient to guarantee social stability, that the cognitive coherence of belief-systems is vital in determining their ability to spread, and that coherent belief-systems may pose a serious problem for resolving social polarization, due to their ability to prevent consensus even under high levels of social exposure. We therefore argue that the inclusion of cognitive factors into a social model is crucial in providing a more complete picture of collective human dynamics

Sensemaking on the Pragmatic Web: A Hypermedia Discourse Perspective

The complexity of the dilemmas we face on an organizational, societal and global scale forces us into sensemaking activity. We need tools for expressing and contesting perspectives flexible enough for real time use in meetings, structured enough to help manage longer term memory, and powerful enough to filter the complexity of extended deliberation and debate on an organizational or global scale. This has been the motivation for a programme of basic and applied action research into Hypermedia Discourse, which draws on research in hypertext, information visualization, argumentation, modelling, and meeting facilitation. This paper proposes that this strand of work shares a key principle behind the Pragmatic Web concept, namely, the need to take seriously diverse perspectives and the processes of meaning negotiation. Moreover, it is argued that the hypermedia discourse tools described instantiate this principle in practical tools which permit end-user control over modelling approaches in the absence of consensus

How sensitive are equilibrium pricing models to real-world distortions?

In both finance and economics, quantitative models are usually studied as isolated mathematical objects --- most often defined by very strong simplifying assumptions concerning rationality, efficiency and the existence of disequilibrium adjustment mechanisms. This raises the important question of how sensitive such models might be to real-world effects that violate the assumptions. We show how the consequences of rational behavior caused by perverse incentives, as well as various irrational tendencies identified by behavioral economists, can be systematically and consistently introduced into an agent-based model for a financial asset. This generates a class of models which, in the special case where such effects are absent, reduces to geometric Brownian motion --- the usual equilibrium pricing model. Thus we are able to numerically perturb a widely-used equilibrium pricing model market and investigate its stability. The magnitude of such perturbations in real markets can be estimated and the simulations imply that this is far outside the stability region of the equilibrium solution, which is no longer observed. Indeed the price fluctuations generated by endogenous dynamics, are in good general agreement with the excess kurtosis and heteroskedasticity of actual asset prices. The methodology is presented within the context of a financial market. However, there are close links to concepts and theories from both micro- and macro-economics including rational expectations, Soros' theory of reflexivity, and Minsky's theory of financial instability

Opinion amplification causes extreme polarization in social networks

Extreme polarization of opinions fuels many of the problems facing our societies today, from issues on human rights to the environment. Social media provides the vehicle for these opinions and enables the spread of ideas faster than ever before. Previous computational models have suggested that significant external events can induce extreme polarization. We introduce the Social Opinion Amplification Model (SOAM) to investigate an alternative hypothesis: that opinion amplification can result in extreme polarization. SOAM models effects such as sensationalism, hype, or “fake news” as people express amplified versions of their actual opinions, motivated by the desire to gain a greater following. We show for the first time that this simple idea results in extreme polarization, especially when the degree of amplification is small. We further show that such extreme polarization can be prevented by two methods: preventing individuals from amplifying more than five times, or through consistent dissemination of balanced opinions to the population. It is natural to try and have the loudest voice in a crowd when we seek attention; this work suggests that instead of shouting to be heard and generating an uproar, it is better for all if we speak with moderation

Operator Objective Function Guidance for a Real-time Unmanned Vehicle Scheduling Algorithm

Advances in autonomy have made it possible to invert the typical operator-to-unmanned-vehicle ratio so that asingle operator can now control multiple heterogeneous unmanned vehicles. Algorithms used in unmanned-vehicle path planning and task allocation typically have an objective function that only takes into account variables initially identified by designers with set weightings. This can make the algorithm seemingly opaque to an operator and brittle under changing mission priorities. To address these issues, it is proposed that allowing operators to dynamically modify objective function weightings of an automated planner during a mission can have performance benefits. A multiple-unmanned-vehicle simulation test bed was modified so that operators could either choose one variable or choose any combination of equally weighted variables for the automated planner to use in evaluating mission plans. Results from a human-participant experiment showed that operators rated their performance and confidence highest when using the dynamic objective function with multiple objectives. Allowing operators to adjust multiple objectives resulted in enhanced situational awareness, increased spare mental capacity, fewer interventions to modify the objective function, and no significant differences in mission performance. Adding this form of flexibility and transparency to automation in future unmanned vehicle systems could improve performance, engender operator trust, and reduce errors.Aurora Flight Sciences, U.S. Office of Naval Researc

Addressing Radicalisation into the Classroom - A New Approach to Teacher and Pupil Learning

This article examines one response to the UK Governments directive that radicalisation and extremism should be tackled in all UK secondary schools. The small scale study, which is set in the broader literature of teaching often difficult PHSE topics to young people in secondary school and also the use of simulations as tools for learning in the classroom, analyses the responses of teachers to being trained with and using ‘Zak’ a bespoke research based simulation on the radicalisation process. An analysis of the teacher’s’ responses indicated that it was recognised that the principales of adults manipulating children, whether for sexual gratification or radicalisation, are considered to be very important topics for staff working with young people in school settings to address. It was also recognised as to be a flexible learning tool which enabled various pathways to be explored with young people in lessons to explore and raise issues regarding many aspects of e- safety, not just radicalisation. Additionally, the teachers remarked that the social media ‘Facebook’ format of the simulation was appreciated by the young people and this appeal resulted in their immersion with it as a teaching aid. Also of significance was how the ‘Zak’ package was delivered into schools with the staff reporting that the inter-professional training delivered by specialist police trainers and the accompanying materials enhanced the learning and confidence of the teachers on this multi-faceted and complex topic

Covalent Plasmodium falciparum-selective proteasome inhibitors exhibit a low propensity for generating resistance in vitro and synergize with multiple antimalarial agents

Therapeutics with novel modes of action and a low risk of generating resistance are urgently needed to combat drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Here, we report that the peptide vinyl sulfones WLL-vs (WLL) and WLW-vs (WLW), highly selective covalent inhibitors of the P. falciparum proteasome, potently eliminate genetically diverse parasites, including K13-mutant, artemisinin-resistant lines, and are particularly active against ring-stage parasites. Selection studies reveal that parasites do not readily acquire resistance to WLL or WLW and that mutations in the β2, β5 or β6 subunits of the 20S proteasome core particle or in components of the 19S proteasome regulatory particle yield only <five-fold decreases in parasite susceptibility. This result compares favorably against previously published non-covalent inhibitors of the Plasmodium proteasome that can select for resistant parasites with >hundred-fold decreases in susceptibility. We observed no cross-resistance between WLL and WLW. Moreover, most mutations that conferred a modest loss of parasite susceptibility to one inhibitor significantly increased sensitivity to the other. These inhibitors potently synergized multiple chemically diverse classes of antimalarial agents, implicating a shared disruption of proteostasis in their modes of action. These results underscore the potential of targeting the Plasmodium proteasome with covalent small molecule inhibitors as a means of combating multidrug-resistant malaria