Covariant Lyapunov vectors

The recent years have witnessed a growing interest for covariant Lyapunov vectors (CLVs) which span local intrinsic directions in the phase space of chaotic systems. Here we review the basic results of ergodic theory, with a specific reference to the implications of Oseledets' theorem for the properties of the CLVs. We then present a detailed description of a "dynamical" algorithm to compute the CLVs and show that it generically converges exponentially in time. We also discuss its numerical performance and compare it with other algorithms presented in literature. We finally illustrate how CLVs can be used to quantify deviations from hyperbolicity with reference to a dissipative system (a chain of H\'enon maps) and a Hamiltonian model (a Fermi-Pasta-Ulam chain)

Sparse Identification and Estimation of Large-Scale Vector AutoRegressive Moving Averages

The Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is fundamental to the theory of multivariate time series; however, in practice, identifiability issues have led many authors to abandon VARMA modeling in favor of the simpler Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model. Such a practice is unfortunate since even very simple VARMA models can have quite complicated VAR representations. We narrow this gap with a new optimization-based approach to VARMA identification that is built upon the principle of parsimony. Among all equivalent data-generating models, we seek the parameterization that is "simplest" in a certain sense. A user-specified strongly convex penalty is used to measure model simplicity, and that same penalty is then used to define an estimator that can be efficiently computed. We show that our estimator converges to a parsimonious element in the set of all equivalent data-generating models, in a double asymptotic regime where the number of component time series is allowed to grow with sample size. Further, we derive non-asymptotic upper bounds on the estimation error of our method relative to our specially identified target. Novel theoretical machinery includes non-asymptotic analysis of infinite-order VAR, elastic net estimation under a singular covariance structure of regressors, and new concentration inequalities for quadratic forms of random variables from Gaussian time series. We illustrate the competitive performance of our methods in simulation and several application domains, including macro-economic forecasting, demand forecasting, and volatility forecasting

Closed-form expression for finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA processes

We derive a closed-form expression for the finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) processes. The expression is given in terms of several explicit matrices that are of fixed sizes independent of the number of observations. The significance of the expression is that it provides us with a linear-time algorithm to compute the finite predictor coefficients. In the proof of the expression, a correspondence result between two relevant matrix-valued outer functions plays a key role. We apply the expression to determine the asymptotic behavior of a sum that appears in the autoregressive model fitting and the autoregressive sieve bootstrap. The results are new even for univariate ARMA processes.Comment: Journal of Multivariate Analysis, to appea