Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation

Neural network approach for predicting drum pressure and level in coal-fired subcritical power plant

There is increasing need for tighter controls of coal-fired plants due to more stringent regulations and addition of more renewable sources in the electricity grid. Achieving this will require better process knowledge which can be facilitated through the use of plant models. Drum-boilers, a key component of coal-fired subcritical power plants, have complicated characteristics and require highly complex routines for the dynamic characteristics to be accurately modelled. Development of such routines is laborious and due to computational requirements they are often unfit for control purposes. On the other hand, simpler lumped and semi empirical models may not represent the process well. As a result, data-driven approach based on neural networks is chosen in this study. Models derived with this approach incorporate all the complex underlying physics and performs very well so long as it is used within the range of conditions on which it was developed. The model can be used for studying plant dynamics and design of controllers. Dynamic model of the drum-boiler was developed in this study using NARX neural networks. The model predictions showed good agreement with actual outputs of the drum-boiler (drum pressure and water level)