6,072 research outputs found
Dynamic dependence networks: Financial time series forecasting and portfolio decisions (with discussion)
We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series,
a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial
industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing
sparse patterns of dependence among multiple time series extend existing
multivariate volatility models to enable scaling to higher numbers of
individual time series. The theory of these "dynamic dependence network" models
shows how the individual series can be "decoupled" for sequential analysis, and
then "recoupled" for applied forecasting and decision analysis. Decoupling
allows fast, efficient analysis of each of the series in individual univariate
models that are linked-- for later recoupling-- through a theoretical
multivariate volatility structure defined by a sparse underlying graphical
model. Computational advances are especially significant in connection with
model uncertainty about the sparsity patterns among series that define this
graphical model; Bayesian model averaging using discounting of historical
information builds substantially on this computational advance. An extensive,
detailed case study showcases the use of these models, and the improvements in
forecasting and financial portfolio investment decisions that are achievable.
Using a long series of daily international currency, stock indices and
commodity prices, the case study includes evaluations of multi-day forecasts
and Bayesian portfolio analysis with a variety of practical utility functions,
as well as comparisons against commodity trading advisor benchmarks.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figures, 3 table
Lower and Upper Conditioning in Quantum Bayesian Theory
Updating a probability distribution in the light of new evidence is a very
basic operation in Bayesian probability theory. It is also known as state
revision or simply as conditioning. This paper recalls how locally updating a
joint state can equivalently be described via inference using the channel
extracted from the state (via disintegration). This paper also investigates the
quantum analogues of conditioning, and in particular the analogues of this
equivalence between updating a joint state and inference. The main finding is
that in order to obtain a similar equivalence, we have to distinguish two forms
of quantum conditioning, which we call lower and upper conditioning. They are
known from the literature, but the common framework in which we describe them
and the equivalence result are new.Comment: In Proceedings QPL 2018, arXiv:1901.0947
Inference of Temporally Varying Bayesian Networks
When analysing gene expression time series data an often overlooked but
crucial aspect of the model is that the regulatory network structure may change
over time. Whilst some approaches have addressed this problem previously in the
literature, many are not well suited to the sequential nature of the data. Here
we present a method that allows us to infer regulatory network structures that
may vary between time points, utilising a set of hidden states that describe
the network structure at a given time point. To model the distribution of the
hidden states we have applied the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hideen Markov
Model, a nonparametric extension of the traditional Hidden Markov Model, that
does not require us to fix the number of hidden states in advance. We apply our
method to exisiting microarray expression data as well as demonstrating is
efficacy on simulated test data
Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies
Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty
Cutset Sampling for Bayesian Networks
The paper presents a new sampling methodology for Bayesian networks that
samples only a subset of variables and applies exact inference to the rest.
Cutset sampling is a network structure-exploiting application of the
Rao-Blackwellisation principle to sampling in Bayesian networks. It improves
convergence by exploiting memory-based inference algorithms. It can also be
viewed as an anytime approximation of the exact cutset-conditioning algorithm
developed by Pearl. Cutset sampling can be implemented efficiently when the
sampled variables constitute a loop-cutset of the Bayesian network and, more
generally, when the induced width of the networks graph conditioned on the
observed sampled variables is bounded by a constant w. We demonstrate
empirically the benefit of this scheme on a range of benchmarks
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