1,018 research outputs found
Uncertainty quantification for kinetic models in socio-economic and life sciences
Kinetic equations play a major rule in modeling large systems of interacting
particles. Recently the legacy of classical kinetic theory found novel
applications in socio-economic and life sciences, where processes characterized
by large groups of agents exhibit spontaneous emergence of social structures.
Well-known examples are the formation of clusters in opinion dynamics, the
appearance of inequalities in wealth distributions, flocking and milling
behaviors in swarming models, synchronization phenomena in biological systems
and lane formation in pedestrian traffic. The construction of kinetic models
describing the above processes, however, has to face the difficulty of the lack
of fundamental principles since physical forces are replaced by empirical
social forces. These empirical forces are typically constructed with the aim to
reproduce qualitatively the observed system behaviors, like the emergence of
social structures, and are at best known in terms of statistical information of
the modeling parameters. For this reason the presence of random inputs
characterizing the parameters uncertainty should be considered as an essential
feature in the modeling process. In this survey we introduce several examples
of such kinetic models, that are mathematically described by nonlinear Vlasov
and Fokker--Planck equations, and present different numerical approaches for
uncertainty quantification which preserve the main features of the kinetic
solution.Comment: To appear in "Uncertainty Quantification for Hyperbolic and Kinetic
Equations
Comparison of data-driven uncertainty quantification methods for a carbon dioxide storage benchmark scenario
A variety of methods is available to quantify uncertainties arising with\-in
the modeling of flow and transport in carbon dioxide storage, but there is a
lack of thorough comparisons. Usually, raw data from such storage sites can
hardly be described by theoretical statistical distributions since only very
limited data is available. Hence, exact information on distribution shapes for
all uncertain parameters is very rare in realistic applications. We discuss and
compare four different methods tested for data-driven uncertainty
quantification based on a benchmark scenario of carbon dioxide storage. In the
benchmark, for which we provide data and code, carbon dioxide is injected into
a saline aquifer modeled by the nonlinear capillarity-free fractional flow
formulation for two incompressible fluid phases, namely carbon dioxide and
brine. To cover different aspects of uncertainty quantification, we incorporate
various sources of uncertainty such as uncertainty of boundary conditions, of
conceptual model definitions and of material properties. We consider recent
versions of the following non-intrusive and intrusive uncertainty
quantification methods: arbitary polynomial chaos, spatially adaptive sparse
grids, kernel-based greedy interpolation and hybrid stochastic Galerkin. The
performance of each approach is demonstrated assessing expectation value and
standard deviation of the carbon dioxide saturation against a reference
statistic based on Monte Carlo sampling. We compare the convergence of all
methods reporting on accuracy with respect to the number of model runs and
resolution. Finally we offer suggestions about the methods' advantages and
disadvantages that can guide the modeler for uncertainty quantification in
carbon dioxide storage and beyond
- …