Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications, Introduction and Summary

This is the introduction to and summary of Phase III of an international research project to study the relationship between social security provisions and retirement. The project relies on the work of a large group of economists in 12 countries who conduct the analysis for each of their countries. The first phase described the retirement incentives inherent in plan provisions and documented the strong relationship across countries between social security incentives to retire and the proportion of older persons out of the labor force. The second phase illustrated the large effects that changing plan provisions would have on the labor force participation of older workers. This third phase shows the consequent fiscal implications that extending labor force participation would have on net program costs -- reduced government social security benefit payments less increased government tax revenues. The findings are conveyed by simulating the implications of illustrative reforms. One reform increases benefit eligibility ages by three years. Another illustrative reform reduces actuarially benefits received before the normal retirement age. A common reform prescribes the same provisions in each country. The financial implications of the illustrative reforms are very large in many instances, often as much as 20 to 40 percent of current program costs. The savings amount to as much a 1 percent or more of country GDP. The results make clear that reforms like those considered in this volume can have very large fiscal implications for the cost of social security benefits as well as for government revenues engendered by changes in the labor force participation of older workers.

Social Security and Retirement across OECD Countries

There are large differences in the employment to population ratio relative to the US across OECD countries, and these differences are even larger for the old age (55-69 years). There are also large differences in various features of social security, such as the replacement rate, the entitlement age or whether it is allowed to collect social security and working. These observations suggest that they might be an important factor. I assess quantitatively this hypothesis using a life cycle general equilibrium model of retirement. I find that the differences in social security can indeed account for the differences in employment to population ratio at old age in the OECD. I also evaluate which features of social security are most important in this context and find that generosity and whether it allows collecting social security while working are the most important contributors

Large-scale transformation of socio-economic institutions - comparative case studies on CEECs: background paper 2: comparative country study - Hungary

The general idea is to follow the Varieties-of-Capitalism literature on generating indicators on the economic systems actually implemented. However, this literature mostly concentrates on the enterprise (or micro) level in traditional OECD countries, categorizing countries between the extremes: liberal market economies and controlled market economies. It largely neglects the role of the government spending, the transition of former socialist countries and developing countries, and the political process behind the choice of an economic system. We broaden the perspective by combining the Varieties-of-Capitalism with the Worlds-of-Welfare-States literature in order to provide a comprehensive view on government activities in transition. With the perspective of our contribution to WWWforEurope, we concentrate especially on social welfare, innovation systems, macro stability, and, of course, how these aspects work together (or not) and are explained by the political background. We will a cluster analysis for OECD and European transition countries and comparative country studies on Slovakia and Hungary. These countries are of special relevance because they represent extreme cases (Slovakia: significant switch in transition path towards star performer, Hungary: muddling towards problem case). One part of the comparative work concentrates on the comparison of Slovakia with other new EU members that also face to challenge of state building after dissolution of one or the other sort (Czech Rep. and the Baltics). The other part of the comparative work concentrates on Hungary in comparison with the other EU-CEECs. A broad based comparison will most likely be possible on available data only. The possibility for deeper qualitative comparisons will have to be determined during the project. The comparative components will focus on the macroeconomic background (Slovakia) and the welfare state (Hungary) respectively. Cluster analysis (initially forseen for MS25) and comparative country studies allows us to draw conclusions for the EU by providing a first comparison of the position of CEECs with respect to the “old” EU members, most interestingly the southern crisis countries that are often categorized into a form called mixed market economies with sometimes contradicting institutional set ups. Do CEECs converge towards prototype models or do they (still) constitute own models

Налогообложение в реформах управления государственными финансами

Общепринятые теоретические подходы к реформированию государственной экономики, как правило, вполне пригодны для целей управления изменениями налоговых систем и их составляющих. В частности, в налоговом администрировании особенно проблемным представляется всемерное обеспечение реализации принципов горизонтальной справедливости, а также внедрение подходов, при которых для налогоплательщиков выполнение обязательств по внесению платежей становится более выгодным, чем уклонение от их уплаты. Во многих развивающихся странах неспособность правительства в связи с политическими причинами реализовать задекларированные программы часто является основным препятствием социально-экономического развития. Имплементация многих инициатив по реформированию не всегда успешна из-за отсутствия четких стратегий в государственной политике структурных изменений. Широко известны модели применения новых подходов в системах управления государственными финансами, в частности, при формировании и движении доходов, расходов и долгов. При стандартном анализе налоговых систем часто игнорируется результативность налогового администрирования, связанная с трансакционными издержками и влиянием теневой экономики: речь идет о затратах плательщиков обязательных платежей и сборов и налоговых органов, а также об иных, не подлежащих количественной оценке составляющих налогообложения, включая мотивацию нарушений законодательства. Большое значение имеет налоговое поведение, предотвращение оппортунизма, регулирование способов публичного раскрытия информации, применение системных инструментов взимания налогов. При разработке детальных планов реформирования необходимо стремиться к максимальной эффективности непрерывных циклов движения финансовых ресурсов в доходах и расходах, а также учитывать угрозы нарушения бюджетных процессов, при этом одним из главных должен быть вопрос выбора целей и приоритетов. Известны случаи, когда донорское сообщество и международные организации настаивали на необходимости внедрения определенных образцов «лучшей практики», особенно если реформирование осуществлялось при их финансовой поддержке. Отдавая должное многим позитивным примерам, следует иметь в виду, что для налоговой системы каждой страны характерны специфические черты, поэтому эффективность ее реформирования во многом будет зависеть от учета местных особенностей. В целом задача управления изменениями в системах государственных финансов усложняется внешними и внутренними факторами неопределенности, поэтому при любых обстоятельствах необходимо обеспечивать непрерывность бюджетного процесса и исполнение государством своих конституционных обязательств. Регуляторная функция экономики должна быть направлена на реализацию целей устойчивого экономического развития, соответственно, в рамках налоговой системы, как стратегического элемента госрегулирования, должны работать эффективные механизмы налогов, сборов, а также льгот и преференций во взаимосвязи с расходными статьями, трансфертами и субсидиями.Generally, standard theoretical approaches to reforming national economy are quite usable for goals of managing changes of taxation systems and their components. In particular, of most problematic issue for tax administration is all-round provision of implementing principles of horizontal justice, as well as introducing the approaches which allow the execution of commitments on making payments by taxpayers to be more profitable than evasion. In many developing countries, due to political reasons the government’s inability to implement their declared programs is frequently the main obstacle to improving the socio-economic progress. Implementation of many reform initiatives is not always successful due to absence of clear strategies in governmental policy of structural transformations. There are wide known models of applying new approaches in systems of public finance management (PFM), particularly, in regard of formation and dynamics of revenues, expenses, debts. The standard analysis of tax systems ignores, as a rule, the efficiency of tax administration connected with transaction costs and shadow economy influence: the issue is about the expenses, on one hand, for payers of obligatory payments and levies, and on the other hand, for taxation authorities, as well as about the other taxation components, non-subject to quantitative assessment, including motivation of breaching legislation. Of great significance is tax behavior, prevention of opportunism, regulation of not only tax rates and taxation basis but also of ways of public information accessibility, application of systemic toolkits of tax collection. While developing detailed plans of reforming, it is necessary to strain after maximum efficiency of continuous cycles of financial resource movements in terms of revenues and expenditures, as well as to consider challenges for interruption of the budget processes. At that, one of the main issue is, obviously, selection of targets and priorities. There are known cases, when the donor community and international organizations insist on “the best practices” introduction, especially if the reforming is carried out with their financial support. In justice to numerous positive examples, it should be borne in mind that each taxation system of every country is characterized by their specific traits, so the efficiency of its reforming will at large depend on considering local features. On the whole, the task of managing changes in the public finance systems is getting more complicated in the context of external and internal factors of uncertainty. Thus, in any circumstances it is vital to ensure continuity of the budget process, as well as execution by the state of its constitutional obligations. The regulatory potential of economy should be focused on implementing sustainable economic development goals. Accordingly, in the taxation system framework, as a strategic tool for governmental regulation, there must function efficient mechanisms of taxes and levies, as well as benefits and preferences in coordination with expenditure items, transfers and subsidies

Devolution of social security

No abstract available

Rules-based economic governance in the European Union: A reappraisal of national fiscal rules.

The economic and financial crisis of 2007/2009 has posed unexpected challenges on both the global and the regional level. Besides the US, the EU has been the most severely hit by the current economic crisis. The financial and banking crisis on the one hand and the sovereign debt crisis on the other hand have clearly shown that without a bold, constructive and systematic change of the economic governance structure of the Union, not just the sustainability of the monetary zone but also the viability of the whole European integration process can be seriously undermined. The current crisis is, however, only a symptom, which made all those contradictions overt that were already heavily embedded in the system. Right from the very beginning, the deficit and the debt rules of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact have proved to be controversial cornerstones in the fiscal governance framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Yet, member states of the EU (both within and outside of the EMU) have shown an immense interest in adopting numerical constraints on the domestic level without hesitation. The main argument for the introduction of national fiscal rules was mostly to strengthen the accountability and credibility of national fiscal policy-making. The paper, however, claims that a relatively large portion of national rules were adopted only after the start of deceleration of the debt-to-GDP ratios. Accordingly, national rules were hardly the sole triggering factors of maintaining fiscal discipline; rather, they served as the key elements of a comprehensive reform package of public budgeting. It can be safely argued, therefore, that countries decide to adopt fiscal rules because they want to explicitly signal their strong commitment to fiscal discipline. In other words, it is not fiscal rules per se what matter in delivering fiscal stability but a strong political commitment

Modelling and forecasting UK public finances

In this paper, we present a new model of UK public finances which aims to shed light on recent problems of forecasting the PSBR. The main elements of public spending are treated as endogenous variables which rise in line with GDP over the medium term. Also, the cyclical response of public borrowing to rises in the level of economic activity is more muted when growth is export-led than when it is consumer-led. These two features go a long way towards explaining the rapid deterioration of public finances in the early 1990s and the slow pace of improvement since 1993.

A review of social protection in Latin America

This paper reviews social protection trends and policy responses in Latin America as part of a global scoping study on social protection commissioned by Ford Foundation (See Appendix One for ToR for this paper). The paper is organised as follows (following the paper contents as described in Appendix One): Section 1 identifies the main trends in poverty and vulnerability in the region, with particular references to rural-urban and life course poverty incidence. Section 2 provides a review of social protection trends. It discusses the two main areas of change and innovation in the last two decades: the reform of social insurance provision and the rapid expansion of social assistance schemes. Section 3 identifies some potential points of engagement between Ford Foundation work and the social protection policy agenda in the region

The economic case for an independent Scotland

This article puts forward an economic case for Scotland becoming independent. There have been many debates regarding the economic consequences of independence. This paper sets out Scotland’s economic and financial potential, and how economic prosperity and resilience are not well served by the current UK economic model of constitutional framework