Scenarios for the Dutch gas distribution infrastructure in 2050

In the Netherlands 98 percent of the households are connected to the gas grid. Th is grid, aging, will need investments. What are its system requirements in the future? No consensus exists on that question. Th erefore, it is diffi cult to determine what to invest in. To help solve this problem, we have developed four scenarios for the Dutch gas distribution infrastructure in 2050. A structured scenario development process was used taking a number of existing scenarios as a starting point. Th e key forces that form the basis of our scenarios are the willingness and ability to reduce green-house gases and the perceived resource scarcity. Next to these, we have included forces that shape the scenarios, namely projected energy demand, available sources of supply, technological developments and institutional developments. Th e energy demand and the available sources of energy were quantifi ed for each scenario. We have determined what the impact will be on the geographical scope of the grid, the type and mix of gases that are transported, and the function of the distribution grid in the larger energy system. We argue that these scenarios may help in dealing with the investment dilemma. Th ey can be used to detail the possible functions of the gas distribution system in the Netherlands in 2050

Lightweight Blockchain Framework for Location-aware Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading

Peer-to-Peer (P2P) energy trading can facilitate integration of a large number of small-scale producers and consumers into energy markets. Decentralized management of these new market participants is challenging in terms of market settlement, participant reputation and consideration of grid constraints. This paper proposes a blockchain-enabled framework for P2P energy trading among producer and consumer agents in a smart grid. A fully decentralized market settlement mechanism is designed, which does not rely on a centralized entity to settle the market and encourages producers and consumers to negotiate on energy trading with their nearby agents truthfully. To this end, the electrical distance of agents is considered in the pricing mechanism to encourage agents to trade with their neighboring agents. In addition, a reputation factor is considered for each agent, reflecting its past performance in delivering the committed energy. Before starting the negotiation, agents select their trading partners based on their preferences over the reputation and proximity of the trading partners. An Anonymous Proof of Location (A-PoL) algorithm is proposed that allows agents to prove their location without revealing their real identity. The practicality of the proposed framework is illustrated through several case studies, and its security and privacy are analyzed in detail

Technology roadmap: solar photovoltaic energy - 2014 edition

Solar power enhances energy diversity and hedges against price volatility of fossil fuels, thus stabilising costs of electricity generation in the long term, argues this report. Overview Solar energy is widely available throughout the world and can contribute to reduced dependence on energy imports. As it entails no fuel price risk or constraints, it also improves security of supply. Solar power enhances energy diversity and hedges against price volatility of fossil fuels, thus stabilising costs of electricity generation in the long term. Solar PV entails no greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during operation and does not emit other pollutants (such as oxides of sulphur and nitrogen); additionally, it consumes no or little water. As local air pollution and extensive use of fresh water for cooling of thermal power plants are becoming serious concerns in hot or dry regions, these benefits of solar PV become increasingly important. Key findings: Since 2010, the world has added more solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity than in the previous four decades. Total global capacity overtook 150 gigawatts (GW) in early 2014 The geographical pattern of deployment is rapidly changing. While a few European countries, led by Germany and Italy, initiated large-scale PV development, since 2013, the People’s Republic of China has led the global PV market, followed by Japan and the United States PV system prices have been divided by three in six years in most markets, while module prices have been divided by five This roadmap envisions PV’s share of global electricity reaching 16% by 2050, a significant increase from the 11% goal in the 2010 roadmap Achieving this roadmap’s vision of 4 600 GW of installed PV capacity by 2050 would avoid the emission of up to 4 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually This roadmap assumes that the costs of electricity from PV in different parts of the world will converge as markets develop, with an average cost reduction of 25% by 2020, 45% by 2030, and 65% by 2050, leading to a range of USD 40 to 160/MWh, assuming a cost of capital of 8% To achieve the vision in this roadmap, the total PV capacity installed each year needs to rise from 36 GW in 2013 to 124 GW per year on average, with a peak of 200 GW per year between 2025 and 2040 The variability of the solar resource is a challenge. All flexibility options – including interconnections, demand-side response, flexible generation, and storage –need to be developed to meet this challenge Appropriate regulatory frameworks – and well-designed electricity markets, in particular – will be critical to achieve the vision in this roadmap Levelised cost of electricity from new-built PV systems and generation by sector

Optimization of Renewable Energy-Based Smart Micro-Grid System

Optimization of renewable energy-based micro-grids is presently attracting significant consideration. Hence the main objective of this chapter is to evaluate the technical and economic performance of a micro-grid (MG) comparing between two operation modes; stand-alone (off-grid), and grid connected (on-grid). The micro-grid system (MGS) suggested components are; PV panels, wind turbine(s) inverter, and control unit in case of grid connected. In the stand alone mode diesel generator and short term storage are added to the renewable generators. To investigate the performance of the MGS; technically, detailed models for each component will be presented then the complete MGS model is developed. Another objective of this study is the economical evaluation of MGS by comparing the system net present cost (NPC) and cost of generated electricity for the two modes of operation; off-grid and on-grid

기후 변동성을 고려한 재생 에너지 기반 마이크로 그리드의 기술 경제성 분석 및 에너지 관리 기법 개발

학위논문(박사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 공과대학 화학생물공학부, 2023. 2. 이종민.Micro-grids based on renewable energy resources have become a pivotal technology to address the growth of global climate crisis. While renewable energy is essential for the micro-grids, it has an intermittent nature and strong uncertainty, thus the climatic variability is a key issue for the micro-grids. Nevertheless, previous micro-grid's techno-economic analyses have rarely taken account of climatic variability, and there have been few studies related to sizing and energy management of a multi-stack micro-grid. We exploit big data driven analysis and mixed-integer stochastic energy management to resolve these issues. Utilizing climate data from 13,488 regions in 218 countries, climatic variability in techno-economic analysis is investigated. After reprocessing the data via uniform manifold approximation and projection, the dimensionally reduced data are clustered using hierarchical density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm, and optimal sizes of clusters micro-grids are compared to each other clusters according to climate patterns. The effects of climate on the sizes and costs of micro-grids are revealed based on the climate sensitivity analyses, which emphasizes the need to take climatic fluctuations into account when designing micro-grids. To decide structures and sizes of stacks, we propose mixed-integer stochastic programming that is appropriate for energy management of a multi-stack micro-grid under climate uncertainty. Validation of the proposed method's performance is followed by verification of the climatic influences on design of a multi-stack micro-grid through each illustrative example. In conclusion, it is indicated that climatic variability takes a significant role in micro-grids based on renewable energy. The contributions of this thesis can be written as follows: First, the correlation analysis through unsupervised clustering is carried out to verify that climatic variability is a factor that determine the design of techno-economical micro-grids. Mitigating their noise and clustering them via UMAP and HDBSCAN algorithm, climate data from 13,844 cities in 218 nations are used to the correlation analysis. Second, the strategies to install and operate a micro-grid during long project's lifespan are suggested according to regional climatic features. In third, a mixed-integer stochastic programming is developed to control a multi-stack micro-grid's energy distributions. Finally, it is verified that the climatic effects are noticeable in design of a multi-stack micro-grid.전세계적인 기후 위기의 증가를 대처하기 위해서 재생가능한 에너지원을 기반으로 하는 마이크로 그리드 (micro-grid) 는 중심 기술이 되고 있다. 재생 에너지는 마이크로 그리드에 필수적이지만 간헐적인 특성과 강한 불확실성을 가지고 있어 기후 변동성이 마이크로 그리드의 핵심 문제이다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 기존의 마이크로 그리드의 기술 경제성 분석들은 기후 변동성을 거의 고려하지 않았으며, 다중 스택 (multi-stack) 마이크로 그리드의 에너지 크기 조정 및 에너지 관리와 관련된 연구는 거의 없다. 우리는 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 빅 데이터 기반 분석과 혼합 정수 확률론적 기반의 (mixed-integer stochastic) 에너지 관리를 활용하였다. 218개국 13,488개 지역의 기후 데이터를 활용하여 기술 경제 분석의 기후 변동성을 조사하였다. 균일한 매니폴드 근사 및 투영 (uniform manifold approximation and projection) 을 통해 데이터를 전처리한 후 노이즈를 사용한 계층적 밀도 기반 공간 클러스터링 (hierarchical density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise) 알고리즘을 사용하여 차원 축소된 데이터를 클러스터링하고, 기후 패턴에 따라서 클러스터의 마이크로 그리드의 최적 크기를 서로 비교하였다. 기후 민감도 분석으로 마이크로 그리드의 규모와 비용에 기후가 미치는 영향을 밝혀냈으며, 이는 마이크로 그리드의 설계 시 기후 변동을 고려할 필요성을 강조한다. 다중 스택 마이크로 그리드의 구조와 스택의 크기를 결정하기 위해서 우리는 기후 불확정성의 존재하에서 다중 스택 마이크로 그리드의 에너지 관리에 적합한 혼합 정수 확률 프로그래밍 (mixed-integer stochastic programming ) 를 제안하였다. 각각의 예시 문제를 통해서 제안된 방법이 유효한 것을 확인한 이후에 다중 스택 마이크로 그리드의 설계에 기후가 영향을 미치는 것을 입증하였다. 결과적으로, 이는 재생 에너지 기반의 마이크로 그리드에서 기후 변동성이 중요한 역할을 하는 것을 시사한다. 본 학위논문이 제시하는 분석 및 방법의 특징은 다음과 같이 요약할 수 있다. 우선, 기후 변동성이 기술 경제적인 마이크로 그리드의 설계의 결정 요인 중 하나라는 것을 확인하기 위해서 비지도학습 클러스터링 (unsupervised clustering) 을 이용한 관계성 분석을 시행하였다. 균일한 매니폴드 근사 및 투영과 노이즈를 사용한 계층적 밀도 기반 공간 클러스터링 알고리즘을 사용하여 218개국가의 13,844개 지역의 기후 데이터의 노이즈를 완화시키고 클러스터링을 진행하였다. 다음으로, 지역적인 기후 특징을 바탕으로 마이크로 그리드의 설치와 장기적인 운영을 위한 전략을 제안하였다. 세번째로는, 다중 스택 마이크로 그리드의 에너지 분배를 제어하기 위해서 혼합 정수 확률 프로그래밍 방법론을 개발하였다. 마지막으로, 다중 스택 마이크로 그리드 설계에서 기후 영향이 두드러짐을 확인했다.1. Introduction 1 1.1 Motivation and previous work 1 1.2 Statement of contributions 5 1.3 Outline of the thesis 7 2. Background and preliminaries 8 2.1 Uniform manifold approximation and projection 8 2.2 Hierarchical density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise 9 2.3 Equipments models used in micro-grid 9 2.3.1 PV module 10 2.3.2 Wind turbine 11 2.3.3 Electrolyzer 11 2.3.4 Fuel cell 12 2.3.5 Energy storage - battery and hydrogen tank 12 2.4 Net present cost 13 2.5 Stochastic model predictive control 16 2.5.1 Stochastic tube model predictive control 17 3. Techno-economic analysis of micro-grid system design through climate region clustering 19 3.1 Introduction 19 3.2 Methods 22 3.2.1 Climatic feature extraction by UMAP 22 3.2.2 Clustering climate groups by HDBSCAN 24 3.2.3 Problem formulation 29 3.3 Result and discussion 33 3.3.1 Feature extraction and clustering of regional climate 33 3.3.2 Optimization of micro-grid considering climate variations 43 3.3.3 Sensitivity analysis on the optimal unit sizes to climate variability 59 4. Energy management and design of multi-stack micro-grid under climatic uncertainty 66 4.1 Introduction 66 4.2 Method 70 4.2.1 Objective function 70 4.2.2 Irradiance and load demands 71 4.2.3 Mixed-integer stochastic programming for a multi-stack micro-grid 74 4.3 Result and discussion 80 4.3.1 Size decision of a multi-stack micro-grid under climate uncertainty 80 5. Concluding remarks 86 5.1 Summary of the contributions 87 5.2 Future works 88 Bibliography 91박