In the Netherlands 98 percent of the households are connected to the gas
grid. Th is grid, aging, will need investments. What are its system requirements in the
future? No consensus exists on that question. Th erefore, it is diffi cult to determine
what to invest in. To help solve this problem, we have developed four scenarios for
the Dutch gas distribution infrastructure in 2050. A structured scenario development
process was used taking a number of existing scenarios as a starting point.
Th e key forces that form the basis of our scenarios are the willingness and ability
to reduce green-house gases and the perceived resource scarcity. Next to these, we
have included forces that shape the scenarios, namely projected energy demand,
available sources of supply, technological developments and institutional developments.
Th e energy demand and the available sources of energy were quantifi ed for
each scenario. We have determined what the impact will be on the geographical
scope of the grid, the type and mix of gases that are transported, and the function of
the distribution grid in the larger energy system. We argue that these scenarios may
help in dealing with the investment dilemma. Th ey can be used to detail the possible
functions of the gas distribution system in the Netherlands in 2050
