Probabilistic Interpretation of Linear Solvers

This manuscript proposes a probabilistic framework for algorithms that iteratively solve unconstrained linear problems $Bx = b$ with positive definite $B$ for $x$. The goal is to replace the point estimates returned by existing methods with a Gaussian posterior belief over the elements of the inverse of $B$, which can be used to estimate errors. Recent probabilistic interpretations of the secant family of quasi-Newton optimization algorithms are extended. Combined with properties of the conjugate gradient algorithm, this leads to uncertainty-calibrated methods with very limited cost overhead over conjugate gradients, a self-contained novel interpretation of the quasi-Newton and conjugate gradient algorithms, and a foundation for new nonlinear optimization methods.Comment: final version, in press at SIAM J Optimizatio

Learning relational dynamics of stochastic domains for planning

Probabilistic planners are very flexible tools that can provide good solutions for difficult tasks. However, they rely on a model of the domain, which may be costly to either hand code or automatically learn for complex tasks. We propose a new learning approach that (a) requires only a set of state transitions to learn the model; (b) can cope with uncertainty in the effects; (c) uses a relational representation to generalize over different objects; and (d) in addition to action effects, it can also learn exogenous effects that are not related to any action, e.g., moving objects, endogenous growth and natural development. The proposed learning approach combines a multi-valued variant of inductive logic programming for the generation of candidate models, with an optimization method to select the best set of planning operators to model a problem. Finally, experimental validation is provided that shows improvements over previous work.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Learning relational dynamics of stochastic domains for planning

Probabilistic planners are very flexible tools that can provide good solutions for difficult tasks. However, they rely on a model of the domain, which may be costly to either hand code or automatically learn for complex tasks. We propose a new learning approach that (a) requires only a set of state transitions to learn the model; (b) can cope with uncertainty in the effects; (c) uses a relational representation to generalize over different objects; and (d) in addition to action effects, it can also learn exogenous effects that are not related to any action, e.g., moving objects, endogenous growth and natural development. The proposed learning approach combines a multi-valued variant of inductive logic programming for the generation of candidate models, with an optimization method to select the best set of planning operators to model a problem. Finally, experimental validation is provided that shows improvements over previous work.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Qualitative Effects of Knowledge Rules in Probabilistic Data Integration

One of the problems in data integration is data overlap: the fact that different data sources have data on the same real world entities. Much development time in data integration projects is devoted to entity resolution. Often advanced similarity measurement techniques are used to remove semantic duplicates from the integration result or solve other semantic conflicts, but it proofs impossible to get rid of all semantic problems in data integration. An often-used rule of thumb states that about 90% of the development effort is devoted to solving the remaining 10% hard cases. In an attempt to significantly decrease human effort at data integration time, we have proposed an approach that stores any remaining semantic uncertainty and conflicts in a probabilistic database enabling it to already be meaningfully used. The main development effort in our approach is devoted to defining and tuning knowledge rules and thresholds. Rules and thresholds directly impact the size and quality of the integration result. We measure integration quality indirectly by measuring the quality of answers to queries on the integrated data set in an information retrieval-like way. The main contribution of this report is an experimental investigation of the effects and sensitivity of rule definition and threshold tuning on the integration quality. This proves that our approach indeed reduces development effort — and not merely shifts the effort to rule definition and threshold tuning — by showing that setting rough safe thresholds and defining only a few rules suffices to produce a ‘good enough’ integration that can be meaningfully used