The development and use of tools to support the strategy process

This document presents a collection of peer reviewed journal articles, book chapters and books which together form the submission for PhD by published work. The document demonstrates that the collection submitted forms a significant contribution to knowledge primarily to the field of operational research (OR) and strategy. The contribution covers four key areas: the practice of tool use by practitioners to support the strategy process and one of its particular activities (visioning); the development and application of two specific tools (visioning and scenario planning); the support of the strategy process through tool use; and, teaching the subject of OR and strategy

Construction IT in 2030: a scenario planning approach

Summary: This paper presents a scenario planning effort carried out in order to identify the possible futures that construction industry and construction IT might face. The paper provides a review of previous research in the area and introduces the scenario planning approach. It then describes the adopted research methodology. The driving forces of change and main trends, issues and factors determined by focusing on factors related to society, technology, environment, economy and politics are discussed. Four future scenarios developed for the year 2030 are described. These scenarios start from the global view and present the images of the future world. They then focus on the construction industry and the ICT implications. Finally, the preferred scenario determined by the participants of a prospective workshop is presented

Through-life NEC scenario development

Scenarios are an important planning tool used by individuals, businesses and governments (especially in the military domain), but many of the currently used approaches focus solely on acute probabilistic timeframes and specific metricated instances of possible future states. Using a mixed method research methodology, we develop a scenario approach in which multiple timeframes are accommodated by fitting vignettes within each other to represent different time levels. This has the advantage of presenting the end-to-end process of capability development and instantiation. We describe the methodology employed to generate such a scenario as a demonstration aid for a large, multidisciplinary research program in systems of systems engineering. The process of scenario generation was an effective integration tool within this program (that included twelve distributed research groups). The resultant scenario enabled engagement of multiple stakeholders in an integrated demonstration of systems related research outputs. We recommend a new class of scenario (a “research scenario”) for incorporation within the standard classifications of scenario types

Futures Thinking to Achieve Sustainable Development at Local Level in Ireland

We are living in times of unprecedented global change and upheaval and over the next ten to 20 years governments, organisations and individuals will face increasing difficulties in an environment of growing complexity, heightened uncertainty and a quickening pace of change. The concept of sustainable development implies the reconciliation of long-term socio-economic development, environmental protection and quality of life; essentially it is concerned with the future. Unfortunately, the potential for linking “futures thinking” to debates about sustainable development at local and regional government levels is relatively undeveloped, particularly in Ireland. Responding to this challenge, The Futures Academy at Technological University Dublin, Ireland, was established in January 2003 to provide both a research and consultancy forum for future-proofing policies and strategies using the “prospective through scenarios” methodology. This paper describes the evolution of sustainable development in Ireland and the generic field of futures thinking, with particular focus on the prospective process which may assist key local policy makers and stakeholders move towards sustainable development for future generations in Ireland

Causal mapping and scenario building with multiple organisations

Thinking and planning for the future is critical in a competitive business world. Scenarios are a common technique for investigating the future, but can be time-consuming and challenging to develop, particularly when more than a single organisation is involved. An approach is presented here which shifts the focus of scenario building from the company level to the sector level, whereby a range of organisations engage collectively on a topic of mutual importance. A rapid technique was developed, with simple scenarios being constructed in 2 to 4 hours. This process was implemented in 13 multi-organisational workshops with participants from the construction and building industries, sectors which are traditionally short-term and reactive in their outlook. The resulting feedback, observations and experiences are discussed, together with examples of how the resultant scenarios have been applied. An example of causal map reflection (exposing an individual’s causal map to others) is also presented, described and critiqued. It was found that the process was successful in engaging participants in thinking about and discussing the future, appreciating the interconnectivities of the related issues, and understanding the collective implications of their potential decisions, as well as facilitating the socialisation of participant thinking and the construction of collective futures

Kako se razvila i gdje se primjenjuje metoda scenarija

Pojam scenarija nalazimo u raznolikim kontekstima – vežemo ga, primjerice, uz kazalište i film, uz različite varijante rješenja nekog problema, jednu ili više varijanti nekog razvojnog projekta, uz postavljanje prema kriznim situacijama. Medutim, kada govorimo o metodi scenarija, govorimo o pojmu koji se povezuje s raznim oblicima istraživanja i planiranja, primjerice poslovnom, tehnološkom i planiranju u javnoj upravi, ili istraživanju i planiranju prostora i okoliša. Metoda scenarija razvila se nakon Drugog svjetskog rata, a među prvima scenarije su u tom smislu definirali Kahn i Wiener (1967), kao hipotetičke sljedove događaja koji su osmišljeni sa svrhom usmjeravanja pažnje na uzročne procese i točke donošenja odluke

Structural analysis and stakeholder-developed scenarios for the continuous training of secondary school teachers in Barcelona

Just as teachers strive to inspire a dedication to lifelong learning in their students, educators must also continue their own learning as professionals in order to keep pace with a changing world through updates in curriculum content and pedagogical practices. In Spain, Continuous Teacher Training (CTT) programs are in place to support teachers' in this effort. However, these programs must also be reviewed and, when necessary, reimagined in order to meet teachers' needs. Using a qualitative prospective approach and structural analysis, this research provides a case study from Barcelona resulting in stakeholder-developed objectives and scenarios for improving CTT: an Ideal Scenario and a Basic Scenario. The study takes into account three underlying elements: (i) the complexity of CTT; (ii) innovation; and (iii) adoptability. While this work focuses on a specific location, the objectives and scenarios offer insight into a stakeholder-guided process for designing meaningful teacher training programs that is relevant for a broad range of education contextsDel mismo modo que los maestros se esfuerzan en inspirar una dedicación a la formación continua en sus estudiantes, los educadores también deben seguir su propio aprendizaje como profesionales, con el fin de seguir el ritmo de un mundo cambiante, los cambios en el contenido curricular o en las prácticas pedagógicas. En España, los programas de Formación Continua de Profesores (CTT) existen para apoyar a los maestros en este esfuerzo. Sin embargo, estos programas también deben ser revisados y, cuando sea necesario, reinventados con el fin de satisfacer las necesidades de los maestros. Desde un enfoque cualitativo de análisis estructural y prospectivo, esta investigación proporciona a través de un estudio de caso de Barcelona, objetivos y escenarios de actores, desarrollado para mejorar la CTT: un escenario ideal y un escenario básico. El estudio tiene en cuenta tres elementos fundamentales: (i) la complejidad del CTT; (Ii) la innovación; y (iii) la capacidad de adaptación. Si bien este trabajo se genera en una ubicación específica, los objetivos y escenarios ofrecen información sobre un proceso guiado para el diseño de programas de formación docente, relevantes para una amplia gama de contextos educativo

Constructing Resilient Futures: Integrating UK multi-stakeholder transport and energy resilience for 2050

The 2005 terrorist attacks in London and 2007 flooding throughout the UK revealed the shortcomings of the UK Government approach of 'governing through resilience' in practice: low levels of stakeholder co-ordination, lack of understanding about critical infrastructure interdependencies, and little attention to long-term adaptation. We found that developing futures scenarios coupled with natural and malicious hazard episodes provided an effective way to draw in key stakeholders to engage with and address these problems. Starting with a detailed analysis of extant futures studies, scenarios were combined with episodes in order to both draw stakeholders out of their institutional contexts by setting the exercise in the future and to elicit participant responses during future crisis events. A procedure was developed and applied to construct integrated scenario-episodes built upon existing scenarios in order to investigate multi-stakeholder interactions around the resilience of energy and transport infrastructures. The full resulting scenario-episode narratives are also presented. These scenario-narratives were applied in key stakeholder focus groups to address the gaps in the aforementioned 'governing through resilience'. Participants actively engaged with these scenario-episodes in order to highlight overlapping conceptualisations of 'resilience', identify critical infrastructure interdependencies, and reflect deeper and more collaboratively on the longer-term resilience implications. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd

Constructing resilient futures: integrating UK multi-stakeholder transport and energy resilience for 2050

The 2005 terrorist attacks in London and 2007 flooding throughout the UK revealed the shortcomings of the UK Government approach of ‘governing through resilience’ in practice: low levels of stakeholder co-ordination, lack of understanding about critical infrastructure interdependencies, and little attention to long-term adaptation. We found that developing futures scenarios coupled with natural and malicious hazard episodes provided an effective way to draw in key stakeholders to engage with and address these problems. Starting with a detailed analysis of extant futures studies, scenarios were combined with episodes in order to both draw stakeholders out of their institutional contexts by setting the exercise in the future and to elicit participant responses during future crisis events. A procedure was developed and applied to construct integrated scenario-episodes built upon existing scenarios in order to investigate multi-stakeholder interactions around the resilience of energy and transport infrastructures. The full resulting scenario-episode narratives are also presented. These scenario-narratives were applied in key stakeholder focus groups to address the gaps in the aforementioned ‘governing through resilience’. Participants actively engaged with these scenario-episodes in order to highlight overlapping conceptualisations of ‘resilience’, identify critical infrastructure interdependencies, and reflect deeper and more collaboratively on the longer-term resilience implications