19,048 research outputs found
Real-time Traffic Flow Detection and Prediction Algorithm: Data-Driven Analyses on Spatio-Temporal Traffic Dynamics
Traffic flows over time and space. This spatio-temporal dependency of traffic flow should be considered and used to enhance the performance of real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. This characteristic has been widely studied and various applications have been developed and enhanced. During the last decade, great attention has been paid to the increases in the number of traffic data sources, the amount of data, and the data-driven analysis methods. There is still room to improve the traffic detection and prediction capabilities through studies on the emerging resources. To this end, this dissertation presents a series of studies on real-time traffic operation for highway facilities focusing on detection and prediction.First, a spatio-temporal traffic data imputation approach was studied to exploit multi-source data. Different types of kriging methods were evaluated to utilize the spatio-temporal characteristic of traffic data with respect to two factors, including missing patterns and use of secondary data. Second, a short-term traffic speed prediction algorithm was proposed that provides accurate prediction results and is scalable for a large road network analysis in real time. The proposed algorithm consists of a data dimension reduction module and a nonparametric multivariate time-series analysis module. Third, a real-time traffic queue detection algorithm was developed based on traffic fundamentals combined with a statistical pattern recognition procedure. This algorithm was designed to detect dynamic queueing conditions in a spatio-temporal domain rather than detect a queue and congestion directly from traffic flow variables. The algorithm was evaluated by using various real congested traffic flow data. Lastly, gray areas in a decision-making process based on quantifiable measures were addressed to cope with uncertainties in modeling outputs. For intersection control type selection, the gray areas were identified and visualized
Temporal Locality in Today's Content Caching: Why it Matters and How to Model it
The dimensioning of caching systems represents a difficult task in the design
of infrastructures for content distribution in the current Internet. This paper
addresses the problem of defining a realistic arrival process for the content
requests generated by users, due its critical importance for both analytical
and simulative evaluations of the performance of caching systems. First, with
the aid of YouTube traces collected inside operational residential networks, we
identify the characteristics of real traffic that need to be considered or can
be safely neglected in order to accurately predict the performance of a cache.
Second, we propose a new parsimonious traffic model, named the Shot Noise Model
(SNM), that enables users to natively capture the dynamics of content
popularity, whilst still being sufficiently simple to be employed effectively
for both analytical and scalable simulative studies of caching systems.
Finally, our results show that the SNM presents a much better solution to
account for the temporal locality observed in real traffic compared to existing
approaches.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, Accepted for publication in ACM Computer
Communication Revie
An Online Decision-Theoretic Pipeline for Responder Dispatch
The problem of dispatching emergency responders to service traffic accidents,
fire, distress calls and crimes plagues urban areas across the globe. While
such problems have been extensively looked at, most approaches are offline.
Such methodologies fail to capture the dynamically changing environments under
which critical emergency response occurs, and therefore, fail to be implemented
in practice. Any holistic approach towards creating a pipeline for effective
emergency response must also look at other challenges that it subsumes -
predicting when and where incidents happen and understanding the changing
environmental dynamics. We describe a system that collectively deals with all
these problems in an online manner, meaning that the models get updated with
streaming data sources. We highlight why such an approach is crucial to the
effectiveness of emergency response, and present an algorithmic framework that
can compute promising actions for a given decision-theoretic model for
responder dispatch. We argue that carefully crafted heuristic measures can
balance the trade-off between computational time and the quality of solutions
achieved and highlight why such an approach is more scalable and tractable than
traditional approaches. We also present an online mechanism for incident
prediction, as well as an approach based on recurrent neural networks for
learning and predicting environmental features that affect responder dispatch.
We compare our methodology with prior state-of-the-art and existing dispatch
strategies in the field, which show that our approach results in a reduction in
response time with a drastic reduction in computational time.Comment: Appeared in ICCPS 201
Scalable Bayesian modeling, monitoring and analysis of dynamic network flow data
Traffic flow count data in networks arise in many applications, such as
automobile or aviation transportation, certain directed social network
contexts, and Internet studies. Using an example of Internet browser traffic
flow through site-segments of an international news website, we present
Bayesian analyses of two linked classes of models which, in tandem, allow fast,
scalable and interpretable Bayesian inference. We first develop flexible
state-space models for streaming count data, able to adaptively characterize
and quantify network dynamics efficiently in real-time. We then use these
models as emulators of more structured, time-varying gravity models that allow
formal dissection of network dynamics. This yields interpretable inferences on
traffic flow characteristics, and on dynamics in interactions among network
nodes. Bayesian monitoring theory defines a strategy for sequential model
assessment and adaptation in cases when network flow data deviates from
model-based predictions. Exploratory and sequential monitoring analyses of
evolving traffic on a network of web site-segments in e-commerce demonstrate
the utility of this coupled Bayesian emulation approach to analysis of
streaming network count data.Comment: 29 pages, 16 figure
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