Scalable discrete sampling as a multi-armed bandit problem

Drawing a sample from a discrete distribution is one of the building components for Monte Carlo methods. Like other sampling algorithms, discrete sampling suffers from the high computational burden in large-scale inference problems. We study the problem of sampling a discrete random variable with a high degree of dependency that is typical in large-scale Bayesian inference and graphical models, and propose an efficient approximate solution with a subsampling approach. We make a novel connection between the discrete sampling and Multi-Armed Bandits problems with a finite reward population and provide three algorithms with theoretical guarantees. Empirical evaluations show the robustness and efficiency of the approximate algorithms in both synthetic and real-world large-scale problems.We acknowledge funding from the Alan Turing Institute, Google, Microsoft Research and EPSRC Grant EP/I036575/1.This is the accepted manuscript. It is currently embargoed pending publication

Influence Maximization with Bandits

We consider the problem of \emph{influence maximization}, the problem of maximizing the number of people that become aware of a product by finding the `best' set of `seed' users to expose the product to. Most prior work on this topic assumes that we know the probability of each user influencing each other user, or we have data that lets us estimate these influences. However, this information is typically not initially available or is difficult to obtain. To avoid this assumption, we adopt a combinatorial multi-armed bandit paradigm that estimates the influence probabilities as we sequentially try different seed sets. We establish bounds on the performance of this procedure under the existing edge-level feedback as well as a novel and more realistic node-level feedback. Beyond our theoretical results, we describe a practical implementation and experimentally demonstrate its efficiency and effectiveness on four real datasets.Comment: 12 page

Scalable Multiagent Coordination with Distributed Online Open Loop Planning

We propose distributed online open loop planning (DOOLP), a general framework for online multiagent coordination and decision making under uncertainty. DOOLP is based on online heuristic search in the space defined by a generative model of the domain dynamics, which is exploited by agents to simulate and evaluate the consequences of their potential choices. We also propose distributed online Thompson sampling (DOTS) as an effective instantiation of the DOOLP framework. DOTS models sequences of agent choices by concatenating a number of multiarmed bandits for each agent and uses Thompson sampling for dealing with action value uncertainty. The Bayesian approach underlying Thompson sampling allows to effectively model and estimate uncertainty about (a) own action values and (b) other agents' behavior. This approach yields a principled and statistically sound solution to the exploration-exploitation dilemma when exploring large search spaces with limited resources. We implemented DOTS in a smart factory case study with positive empirical results. We observed effective, robust and scalable planning and coordination capabilities even when only searching a fraction of the potential search space