Satisficing in multi-armed bandit problems

Satisficing is a relaxation of maximizing and allows for less risky decision making in the face of uncertainty. We propose two sets of satisficing objectives for the multi-armed bandit problem, where the objective is to achieve reward-based decision-making performance above a given threshold. We show that these new problems are equivalent to various standard multi-armed bandit problems with maximizing objectives and use the equivalence to find bounds on performance. The different objectives can result in qualitatively different behavior; for example, agents explore their options continually in one case and only a finite number of times in another. For the case of Gaussian rewards we show an additional equivalence between the two sets of satisficing objectives that allows algorithms developed for one set to be applied to the other. We then develop variants of the Upper Credible Limit (UCL) algorithm that solve the problems with satisficing objectives and show that these modified UCL algorithms achieve efficient satisficing performance.Comment: To appear in IEEE Transactions on Automatic Contro

Data quality in telephone surveys and the effect of questionnaire length: a cross-national experiment

Respondents in long telephone survey interviews may adopt satisficing strategies as they approach the end of the questionnaire (Holbrook, Green and Krosnick, 2003). However, there is inconsistency regarding the relationship between questionnaire length and different forms of satisficing. We investigate whether long questionnaires are associated with a reduction in response quality using data from a cross-national survey experiment. Sample members were randomly assigned to interviews of 60, 45 or 30 minutes. We compare responses to attitudinal measures from a module on happiness and well-being, which was asked at different points in the interview in each of the three groups

Satisficing in sales competition: experimental evidence

In a duopoly market, aspirations express how much sellers want to earn given their expectations about the other's behavior. We define individually and mutually satisficing sales behavior for given individual beliefs and aspirations. In a first experimental phase, whenever satisficing is not possible, beliefs, aspirations, or sales have to be adapted. In a second phase, testing the absorption of satisficing, participants are free to select nonsatisficing sales profiles. The results reveal that most people are satisficers who, either mandatorily or deliberately, tend to adjust aspiration levels if they cannot be satisfied.

Causes of Mode Effects: Separating out Interviewer and Stimulus Effects in Comparisons of Face-to-Face and Telephone Surveys

We identify the causes of mode effects in comparisons of face-to-face and telephone surveys, by testing for differences in the extent of satisficing and social desirability bias due to differences in the stimulus (visual vs. aural presentation of response options) and the presence vs. absence of the interviewer. The stimulus did not lead to differential measurement error; the presence or absence of the interviewer however did. Telephone respondents were far more likely to give socially desirable responses than face-to-face respondents when the stimulus was the same for both modes

The Impact of a Target on Newsvendor Decisions

Goal achieving is a commonly observed phenomenon in practice, and it plays an important role in decision making. In this paper, we investigate the impact of a target on newsvendor decisions. We take into account the risk and model the effect of a target by maximizing the satisficing measure of a newsvendor’s profit with respect to that target. We study two satisficing measures: (i) conditional value at risk (CVaR) satisficing measure that evaluates the highest confidence level of CVaR achieving the target; (ii) entropic satisficing measure that assesses the smallest risk tolerance level under which the certainty equivalent for exponential utility function achieves the target. For both satisficing measures, we find that the optimal ordering quantity increases with the target level. We determine an optimal order quantity for a target-based newsvendor and characterize its properties with respect to, for example, product’s profit margin

Cognitive constraints, contraction consistency, and the satisficing criterion

© 2007, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0