Safe Testing

We present a new theory of hypothesis testing. The main concept is the S-value, a notion of evidence which, unlike p-values, allows for effortlessly combining evidence from several tests, even in the common scenario where the decision to perform a new test depends on the previous test outcome: safe tests based on S-values generally preserve Typ

Safe Testing

We develop the theory of hypothesis testing based on the E-value, a notion of evidence that, unlike the p-value, allows for effortlessly combining results from several studies in the common scenario where the decision to perform a new study may depend on previous outcomes. Tests based on E-values are safe, i.e. they preserve Type-I error guarantees, under such optional continuation. We define growth-rate optimality (GRO) as an analogue of power in an optional continuation context, and we show how to construct GRO E-variables for general testing problems with composite null and alternative, emphasizing models with nuisance parameters. GRO E-values take the form of Bayes factors with special priors. We illustrate the theory using several classic examples including a one-sample safe t-test (in which the right Haar prior turns out to be GRO) and the 2x2 contingency table (in which the GRO prior is different from standard priors). Sharing Fisherian, Neymanian and Jeffreys-Bayesian interpretations, E-values and the corresponding tests may provide a methodology acceptable to adherents of all three schools.Comment: Submitte

Testing Commodities as Safe Haven and Hedging Instrument on ASEAN's Five Stock Markets

This study attempts to analyze commodity market instruments such as gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil's potential as hedge and safe haven toward some stock markets in South East Asia such as in Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. To analyze the data, GARCH (1,1) was applied. The research findings showed that gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and WTI could not play their role as hedging instrument for five South East Asian capital markets. WTI could act as a robust safe haven for most South East Asian capital markets. Gold could do the role as a robust safe haven in Singapore and Malaysia, whereas, platinum and silver consistently could be safe haven only for Singapore Stock Exchange. Palladium could only be safe haven for Philippines Stock Exchange

Testing Enabling Technologies for Safe UAS Urban Operations

A set of more than 100 flight operations were conducted at NASA Langley Research Center using small UAS (sUAS) to demonstrate, test, and evaluate a set of technologies and an overarching air-ground system concept aimed at enabling safety. The research vehicle was tracked continuously during nominal traversal of planned flight paths while autonomously operating over moderately populated land. For selected flights, off-nominal risks were introduced, including vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) encounters. Three contingency maneuvers were demonstrated that provide safe responses. These maneuvers made use of an integrated air/ground platform and two on-board autonomous capabilities. Flight data was monitored and recorded with multiple ground systems and was forwarded in real time to a UAS traffic management (UTM) server for airspace coordination and supervision

Testing of the Gold's Role as a Safe Haven and Hedge for Sharia Stocks in Indonesia

Gold as a commodity, since ancient time, is always viewed as a safe haven asset. This study tested the function of gold as a safe haven and hedge for sharia stocks in Indonesia. Data used in this study are a monthly closing of Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) on Indonesia Stock Exchange and monthly closing price of gold in the International market during May 2008 until September 2017. Data analysis was done by using OLS and QREG. The result of this study is gold can serve as a hedge for sharia stocks in Indonesia during the research period. The study further found that when extreme shocks occur in the Indonesian stock market, gold can serve as a safe haven asset for sharia stocks in Indonesia. Investor suggested shifting their assets into gold to secure their investment when stock market conditions experience a drastic decline.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v10i2.652

A Rejection Principle for Sequential Tests of Multiple Hypotheses Controlling Familywise Error Rates

We present a unifying approach to multiple testing procedures for sequential (or streaming) data by giving sufficient conditions for a sequential multiple testing procedure to control the familywise error rate (FWER), extending to the sequential domain the work of Goeman and Solari (2010) who accomplished this for fixed sample size procedures. Together we call these conditions the "rejection principle for sequential tests," which we then apply to some existing sequential multiple testing procedures to give simplified understanding of their FWER control. Next the principle is applied to derive two new sequential multiple testing procedures with provable FWER control, one for testing hypotheses in order and another for closed testing. Examples of these new procedures are given by applying them to a chromosome aberration data set and to finding the maximum safe dose of a treatment