The meta Taylor rule

We characterise U.S. monetary policy within a generalized Taylor rule framework that accommodates uncertainties about the duration of policy regimes and the specification of the rule, in addition to the standard parameter and stochastic uncertainties inherent in traditional Taylor rule analysis. Our approach involves estimation and inference based on Taylor rules obtained through standard linear regression methods, but combined using Bayesian model averaging techniques. Employing data that were available in real time, the estimated version of the 'meta' Taylor rule provides a flexible but compelling characterisation of monetary policy in the United States over the last forty years

How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?

Over the past several years, Taylor rules have attracted increased attention of analysts, policymakers, and the financial press. Taylor rules recommend a setting for the level of the federal funds rate based on the state of the economy. Taylor rules have become more appealing recently with the apparent breakdown in the relationship between money growth and inflation. But, the usefulness of rule recommendations to policymakers has not been well established.> To be useful to policymakers, rule recommendations should be robust to minor variations in the rule specification. For example, if recommendations differ considerably depending on whether price inflation is measured using the core consumer price index or the chain price index for GDP, then the rule may not be very useful. Rule recommendations should also be reliable. A reliable rule might be expected to replicate federal funds rate settings over a period when policymakers thought policy actions were successful. But, even a rule that can replicate favorable policy actions may not be regarded as reliable if past policy decisions were influenced by economic events beyond the scope of the rule.> Kozicki examines whether recommendations from Taylor rules are useful to policymakers as they decide how to adjust the federal funds rate. She suggests that the usefulness of Taylor rule recommendations to policymakers faced with real-time policy decisions is limited. But Taylor rules may be useful to policymakers in other ways. For example, Taylor rules may provide a good starting point for discussions of issues that concern policymakers. Such rules also play an important role in most forecasting models.Taylor's rule ; Federal funds market (United States) ; Monetary policy

Do Federal Reserve Communications Help Predict Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions?

We explain federal funds target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables and Federal Reserve communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that our communication indicators significantly explain target rate decisions and improve explanatory power in and out of sample. Second, speeches by members of the Board of Governors and regional presidents have a statistically significant and equal-sized effect, whereas the lessfrequent monetary policy reports and congressional hearings are insignificant. Third, our findings are robust to variations in the specification, including changes in the communication strategy. Finally, our communication indicator based on Federal Reserve speeches performs better in explaining target rate decisions than do newswire reports of Fed communications.Central Bank Communication, Federal Reserve Bank, Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy, Federal Funds Target Rate, Taylor Rule

Estimating monetary policy reaction functions : A discrete choice approach

I propose a discrete choice method for estimating monetary policy reaction functions based on research by Hu and Phillips (2004). This method distinguishes between determining the underlying desired rate which drives policy rate changes and actually implementing interest rate changes. The method is applied to ECB rate setting between 1999 and 2010 by estimating a forward-looking Taylor rule on a monthly basis using real-time data drawn from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. All parameters are estimated significantly and with the expected sign. Including the period of financial turmoil in the sample delivers a less aggressive policy rule as the ECB was constrained by the lower bound on nominal interest rates. The ECB's non-standard measures helped to circumvent that constraint on monetary policy, however. For the pre-turmoil sample, the discrete choice model's estimated desired policy rate is more aggressive and less gradual than least squares estimates of the same rule specification. This is explained by the fact that the discrete choice model takes account of the fact that central banks change interest rates by discrete amounts. An advantage of using discrete choice models is that probabilities are attached to the different outcomes of every interest rate setting meeting. These probabilities correlate fairly well with the probabilities derived from surveys among commercial bank economists.monetary policy reaction functions, discrete choice models, interest rate setting, ECB

Ontology-based Policy Rule Specification and Integration

A formal transformation between knowledge contained in Operations Support Systems (OSS) views is required to automate the deployment of OSS. This paper details progress towards the integration of policy languages at the business view of the TeleManagement Forum (TMF) Next Generation Operations Support System (NGOSS), with the specification of a formal language for the TMF’s Shared Information and Data Policy Aggregated Business Entities

Asset Prices in Taylor Rules: Specification, Estimation, and Policy Implications for the ECB

This paper estimates standard and extended Taylor rules for core countries in the euro area, namely France, Germany and Italy, as well as for the ECB. Forward, backward and forecast-based rules are estimated for a variety of samples since the late 1970s. We are particularly interested in the impact of adding asset prices to the standard Taylor rule specification. Since forward-looking Taylor rules are usually estimated via GMM we perform extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, a practice generally eschewed in previous work. We find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments rather than as separate arguments in policy rules. Backwardlooking Taylor rules, however, cannot be rejected outright. Forecast-based rules perform best using the root mean squared error metric but produce coefficients implying that central banks may be too aggressive at fighting inflation. Encompassing tests are therefore required to select the ?best? policy rule and these suggest that policy rules need to have a mix of forward and forecast-based elements. Furthermore too aggressive reactions to stock prices in particular would have led to an implausible monetary policy. Hence, asset prices appear at best to serve as indicators of the direction of interest rates and not as a variable that the ECB directly reacts to. --reaction function,asset prices

The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the Euro area

This paper tackles the issue of the incompleteness of information available to the central bank when taking its monetary policy decisions. It is focused on euro area data and based on the simplistic assumption of the central bank following a simple monetary policy rule à-la-Taylor. Along the lines of the work by Orphanides (2001), our aim is to assess whether estimates of reaction functions which are carried out using revised data for the euro area can be misleading. In essence, the analysis yields indications which are consistent with the findings by Orphanides for the United States. First of all, the results found suggest that it would be preferable for a central bank not to attach too much weight on output gap measures in policy analysis, given that such measures are subject to large revisions over time. Moreover, the coefficients of a simple Taylor rule estimated in real time differ quite considerably from those related to the same rule estimated on the basis of ex post revised data. More precisely, a coefficient for inflation larger than one (which is a requirement for a unique equilibrium in many theoretical models) in real time is found only in case a forward-looking specification based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters is used. On the contrary, when using revised data, the same result is obtained if the Taylor rules include the current inflation rate. This shows how a misleading inference can occur when the appropriate available data are not taken into account. --Taylor rules,reaction functions,monetary policy,euro area,real-time data

The ECB Monetary Policy and the Current Financial Crisis

Our paper presents estimates of Taylor type rules for the euro area using quarterly data for the period 2004(Q4) to 2008(Q3). Unlike other studies, we employ a real-time data set using the quarterly ECB staff projections on inflation and output growth. Estimated realtime rules are also compared with a more conventional specification whereby ex-post data are employed. Our results suggest that: (i) the ECB monetary policy strategy can be represented with a simple interest-rate rule; (ii) the ECB takes into account the quarterly ECB staff projections when deciding on its monetary policy stance; (iii) the accommodative behaviour of the ECB often cited in the literature is related to differences between real-time and ex-post data; and (iv) the estimated simple interest-rate rule continues to capture the ECB monetary policy strategy during the recent financial crisis. In light of the above, we can draw three important policy conclusions. First, the ECB has a stabilising role in the economy. Second, the ECB has become rather hawkish in its monetary policy decision making, responding more to projected changes in inflation than to projected changes in the output growth gap. Finally, the ECB’s response during the recent financial crisis of reducing its interest rate to 1.00% by the first half of 2009 and undertaking non-standard measures to provide support to the financial sector is shown to be equivalent to following a simple interest-rate rule based on its previous practices.Taylor type rules, ECB monetary policy, real-time data, financial crisis