Prior density ratio class robustness in econometrics

This paper provides a general and efficient method for computing density ratio class bounds on posterior moments, given the output of a posterior simulator. It shows how density ratio class bounds for posterior odds ratios may be formed in many situations, also on the basis of posterior simulator output. The computational method is used to provide density ratio class bounds in two econometric models. It is found that the exact bounds are approximated poorly by their asymptotic approximation, when the posterior distribution of the function of interest is skewed. It is also found that posterior odds ratios display substantial variation within the density ratio class, in ways that cannot be anticipated by the asymptotic approximation.Econometrics

On nonparametric estimation of a mixing density via the predictive recursion algorithm

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing density based on observations from the corresponding mixture is a challenging statistical problem. This paper surveys the literature on a fast, recursive estimator based on the predictive recursion algorithm. After introducing the algorithm and giving a few examples, I summarize the available asymptotic convergence theory, describe an important semiparametric extension, and highlight two interesting applications. I conclude with a discussion of several recent developments in this area and some open problems.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures. Comments welcome at https://www.researchers.one/article/2018-12-

The impact of oil prices on oil-gas stock returns: A fresh evidence from the covid-affected countries

The effects of oil price exposure of oil-gas sectors of the countries largely affected by Covid-19 is analyzed with a time-varying parameter model. Estimation results suggest that market risk of all countries’ oil-gas sector excluding China has increased remarkably compared to the period before the spread of the virus. Positive and significant effects of the oil price factor become negative and significant for most countries during the pandemic. The results further indicate that the oil-gas sector of China is not affected by the outbreak of Covid-19, even though the virus has first appeared in that country. © 2021, Bucharest University of Economic Studies. All rights reserved

Detection of Rayleigh Faded Signal using Two Distributed Sensors

Distributed detection(DD) is an area of interest in the Cognitive Radio(CR) Network domain. With the help of geographically dispersed sensors and a Fusion Center(FC) (i.e. the network element which generates the global network decision), a DD system can determine the presence or absence of a primary user signal. This prevents any harmful interference by a secondary user who is trying to gain access to the unoccupied spectrum opportunistically. DD system gained its popularity in spectrum analysis due to the limited bandwidth of the reporting channels between the sensors and their fusion center

Copulas in Classical Probability Sense

            دوال الكوبلة بشكل مبسط بناءات مكافئة لدوال التوزيع المشتركة. في هذه الدراسة اقترحنا بناءات معدلة تعتمد على الاحتمالية التقليدية ومفاهيم بدلالة دوال الكوبلة. قُدمت دوال الكوبلة بصيغ قياسية احتمالية مكافئة للصيغ التقليدية من اجل اختبار أي علاقات احتمالية جديدة. قمنا بتقديم الاحتمالية للاحداث كعناصر لدالة الكوبلة بدلا من المتغيرات العشوائية مع المعرفة بان كل احتمالية لحدث تنتمي للفترة [0,1]. كذلك، تم اثبات بعض البناءات الاحتمالية من خلال مفاهيم الاحتمالية الاستقلالية والشرطية. ناقشت الدراسة علاقة بيز الاحتمالية وخواصها بالنسبة لدوال الكوبلة. بالإضافة الى ذلك، قُدم التوسع للبناءات المتعددة لكل دالة كوبلة. أخيرا، وضحنا عدد من الأمثلة التي بينت كل علاقة للكوبلة بدلالة الفضاء الاحتمالي بدلا من دوال التوزيع.               Copulas are simply equivalent structures to joint distribution functions. Then, we propose modified structures that depend on classical probability space and concepts with respect to copulas. Copulas have been presented in equivalent probability measure forms to the classical forms in order to examine any possible modern probabilistic relations. A probability of events was demonstrated as elements of copulas instead of random variables with a knowledge that each probability of an event belongs to [0,1]. Also, some probabilistic constructions have been shown within independent, and conditional probability concepts. A Bay's probability relation and its properties were discussed with respect to copulas. Moreover, an extension of multivariate constructions of each probabilistic copula has been presented. Finally, we have shown some examples that explain each relation of copula in terms of probability space instead of distribution functions

Does Indonesia's High Level of Corruption Affect Its Trade Volume?

This article aims to examine the connection between corruption and the amount of trade in several commodities, including raw materials, capital goods, intermediate products, and consumer goods, with a specific emphasis on the Indonesian situation. Indicators of corruption utilized in this article include the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) and the Control of Corruption (COC). Meanwhile, the sum of Indonesia's exports and imports indicated the country's trade volume. For this issue, this article employs the gravity model and regresses it with either a fixed effect or a random effect model. The empirical findings show that both the CPI and COC levels of corruption in Indonesia have a negative impact on the amount of trade in capital goods. However, only the CPI shows a negative correlation with the prevalence of corruption in Indonesia, whereas consumer products, intermediate goods, and raw materials all show a positive correlation. The impact of COC on Indonesia's trade partners is complicated for the commodities this article looked at. The insights generated from this study hold significant value in shaping a more informed and accurate representation of how corruption permeates and impacts international trade dynamics, thus contributing to a more nuanced understanding of this critical issue.JEL Classification: D73, F10, C01How to Cite:Yunan, Z. Y. (2023). Does Indonesia’s High Level of Corruption Affects Its Trade Volume? Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(2), 425-440. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i2.35156

Market Performance of Spun-Off Subsidiaries: Effects of Board Independence and Directors-Industry Experience

The goal of corporate spin-offs, as a corporate restructuring technique, is to create better value for both the divesting firm and its subsidiary/division. These corporate transactions lead to the creation of independent, publicly traded entities, which are called spun-off subsidiaries. In this study, we examine the effect of board independence and directors\u27 industry experience on the market performance of spun-off subsidiaries by setting two main hypotheses. Our sample includes 123 completed U.S.-based spin-off events during a 14-year long time frame. According to our empirical analysis, we find support for both hypotheses, which appear to be significant and positive. In addition, our moderation analysis shows that the interaction effect of directors\u27 industry experience and board ownership is positive and significant. Based on the arguments of agency and resource dependence theories, this study contributes to the governance literature by proving the significant importance of board of directors (namely, their independence and industry experience) on the market performance of spun-off subsidiaries after being separated from their corporate parents. From the managerial contributions aspect, this study tells us that if the board is independent and includes directors with the same industry experience, these spun-off subsidiaries will experience positive change in their market performance. Our interaction effect also shows that if board members are offered more shares on the top of their industry experience, the change in market performance will be stronger

Market Performance of Spun-Off Subsidiaries: Effects of Board Independence and Directors’ Industry Experience

The goal of corporate spin-offs, as a corporate restructuring technique, is to create better value for both the divesting firm and its subsidiary/ division. These corporate transactions lead to the creation of independent, publicly traded entities, which are called spun-off subsidiaries. In this study, we examine the effect of board independence and directors’ industry experience on the market performance of spun-off subsidiaries by setting two main hypotheses. Our sample includes 123 completed U.S.-based spin-off events during a 14-year long time frame. According to our empirical analysis, we find support for both hypotheses, which appear to be significant and positive. In addition, our moderation analysis shows that the interaction effect of directors’ industry experience and board ownership is positive and significant. Based on the arguments of agency and resource dependence theories, this study contributes to the governance literature by proving the significant importance of board of directors (namely, their independence and industry experience) on the market performance of spun-off subsidiaries after being separated from their corporate parents. From the managerial contributions aspect, this study tells us that if the board is independent and includes directors with the same industry experience, these spun-off subsidiaries will experience positive change in their market performance. Our interaction effect also shows that if board members are offered more shares on the top of their industry experience, the change in market performance will be stronger

Robustness in regional development studies. The case of Lithuania

The definition of robustness in econometrics, the error term in a linear equation, was not only broadened, but, in addition, moved to the meaning of common language: from a cardinal to a qualitative one: the most robust one, more robust than…, as robust as……, robust, weak robust, less robust than…, not robust, etc. Both interpretations are tested by an application on the Robustness in Regional Development, namely of the Lithuanian Regions. The computation of Regional Income, being an exponent of the welfare economy, is not sufficient for the measurement of the well‐being of the regional population. The well‐being economy goes farther. In the well‐being economy, each individual would have to feel good concerning material wealth, health, education, all kind of security and concerning the environment. In other words, multiple objectives have to be fulfilled. Moreover, these different multiple objectives are expressed in different units. Weights are most of the time used to equalize these different units. However, introduction of weights means also introduction of subjectivity. In order to avoid this dilemma, the internal mechanical solution of a ratio system, producing dimensionless numbers, is preferred. In addition, this outcome creates the opportunity to use also a non‐subjective reference point theory. The choice of the objectives is also non‐subjective if all stakeholders are involved, or if all possible objectives are represented. This theory, which is called MOORA (Multi‐Objective Optimization by Ratio Analysis), is applied to the different regions of Lithuania. A redistribution of income has to take place from the well‐being Lithuanian regions to the poorer regions, but under limiting conditions and for well defined and eventually controlled projects. First Publish Online: 09 Jun 201