Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Approximate Gaussian conjugacy: parametric recursive filtering under nonlinearity, multimodality, uncertainty, and constraint, and beyond

Since the landmark work of R. E. Kalman in the 1960s, considerable efforts have been devoted to time series state space models for a large variety of dynamic estimation problems. In particular, parametric filters that seek analytical estimates based on a closed-form Markov–Bayes recursion, e.g., recursion from a Gaussian or Gaussian mixture (GM) prior to a Gaussian/GM posterior (termed ‘Gaussian conjugacy’ in this paper), form the backbone for a general time series filter design. Due to challenges arising from nonlinearity, multimodality (including target maneuver), intractable uncertainties (such as unknown inputs and/or non-Gaussian noises) and constraints (including circular quantities), etc., new theories, algorithms, and technologies have been developed continuously to maintain such a conjugacy, or to approximate it as close as possible. They had contributed in large part to the prospective developments of time series parametric filters in the last six decades. In this paper, we review the state of the art in distinctive categories and highlight some insights that may otherwise be easily overlooked. In particular, specific attention is paid to nonlinear systems with an informative observation, multimodal systems including Gaussian mixture posterior and maneuvers, and intractable unknown inputs and constraints, to fill some gaps in existing reviews and surveys. In addition, we provide some new thoughts on alternatives to the first-order Markov transition model and on filter evaluation with regard to computing complexity

Design and control of next-generation uavs for effectively interacting with environments

In this dissertation, the design and control of a novel multirotor for aerial manipulation is studied, with the aim of endowing the aerial vehicle with more degrees of freedom of motion and stability when interacting with the environments. Firstly, it presents an energy-efficient adaptive robust tracking control method for a class of fully actuated, thrust vectoring unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with parametric uncertainties including unknown moment of inertia, mass and center of mass, which would occur in aerial maneuvering and manipulation. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated through simulation. Secondly, a humanoid robot arm is adopted to serve as a 6-degree-of-freedom (DOF) automated flight testing platform for emulating the free flight environment of UAVs while ensuring safety. Another novel multirotor in a tilt-rotor architecture is studied and tested for coping with parametric uncertainties in aerial maneuvering and manipulation. Two pairs of rotors are mounted on two independently-controlled tilting arms placed at two sides of the vehicle in a H configuration to enhance its maneuverability and stability through an adaptive robust control method. In addition, an impedance control algorithm is deployed in the out loop that modifies the trajectory to achieve a compliant behavior in the end-effector space for aerial drilling and screwing tasks

Multi Sensor Multi Target Perception and Tracking for Informed Decisions in Public Road Scenarios

Multi-target tracking in public traffic calls for a tracking system with automated track initiation and termination facilities in a randomly evolving driving environment. Besides, the key problem of data association needs to be handled effectively considering the limitations in the computational resources on-board an autonomous car. The challenge of the tracking problem is further evident in the use of high-resolution automotive sensors which return multiple detections per object. Furthermore, it is customary to use multiple sensors that cover different and/or over-lapping Field of View and fuse sensor detections to provide robust and reliable tracking. As a consequence, in high-resolution multi-sensor settings, the data association uncertainty, and the corresponding tracking complexity increases pointing to a systematic approach to handle and process sensor detections. In this work, we present a multi-target tracking system that addresses target birth/initiation and death/termination processes with automatic track management features. These tracking functionalities can help facilitate perception during common events in public traffic as participants (suddenly) change lanes, navigate intersections, overtake and/or brake in emergencies, etc. Various tracking approaches including the ones based on joint integrated probability data association (JIPDA) filter, Linear Multi-target Integrated Probabilistic Data Association (LMIPDA) Filter, and their multi-detection variants are adapted to specifically include algorithms that handle track initiation and termination, clutter density estimation and track management. The utility of the filtering module is further elaborated by integrating it into a trajectory tracking problem based on model predictive control. To cope with tracking complexity in the case of multiple high-resolution sensors, we propose a hybrid scheme that combines the approaches of data clustering at the local sensor and multiple detections tracking schemes at the fusion layer. We implement a track-to-track fusion scheme that de-correlates local (sensor) tracks to avoid double counting and apply a measurement partitioning scheme to re-purpose the LMIPDA tracking algorithm to multi-detection cases. In addition to the measurement partitioning approach, a joint extent and kinematic state estimation scheme are integrated into the LMIPDA approach to facilitate perception and tracking of an individual as well as group targets as applied to multi-lane public traffic. We formulate the tracking problem as a two hierarchical layer. This arrangement enhances the multi-target tracking performance in situations including but not limited to target initialization(birth process), target occlusion, missed detections, unresolved measurement, target maneuver, etc. Also, target groups expose complex individual target interactions to help in situation assessment which is challenging to capture otherwise. The simulation studies are complemented by experimental studies performed on single and multiple (group) targets. Target detections are collected from a high-resolution radar at a frequency of 20Hz; whereas RTK-GPS data is made available as ground truth for one of the target vehicle\u27s trajectory

Adaptive Estimation and Detection Techniques with Applications

Hybrid systems have been identified as one of the main directions in control theory and attracted increasing attention in recent years due to their huge diversity of engineering applications. Multiplemodel (MM) estimation is the state-of-the-art approach to many hybrid estimation problems. Existing MM methods with fixed structure usually perform well for problems that can be handled by a small set of models. However, their performance is limited when the required number of models to achieve a satisfactory accuracy is large due to time evolution of the true mode over a large continuous space. In this research, variable-structure multiple model (VSMM) estimation was investigated, further developed and evaluated. A fundamental solution for on-line adaptation of model sets was developed as well as several VSMM algorithms. These algorithms have been successfully applied to the fields of fault detection and identification as well as target tracking in this thesis. In particular, an integrated framework to detect, identify and estimate failures is developed based on the VSMM. It can handle sequential failures and multiple failures by sensors or actuators. Fault detection and target maneuver detection can be formulated as change-point detection problems in statistics. It is of great importance to have the quickest detection of such mode changes in a hybrid system. Traditional maneuver detectors based on simplistic models are not optimal and are computationally demanding due to the requirement of batch processing. In this presentation, a general sequential testing procedure is proposed for maneuver detection based on advanced sequential tests. It uses a likelihood marginalization technique to cope with the difficulty that the target accelerations are unknown. The approach essentially utilizes a priori information about the accelerations in typical tracking engagements and thus allows improved detection performance. The proposed approach is applicable to change-point detection problems under similar formulation, such as fault detection

EKF Application on Estimating Missile Guidance Signals

An Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) application has been developed to estimate relative position, relative velocity, Line Of Sight (LOS), LOS rate and target acceleration in the nonlinear missile-target relative kinematics. The used measures come from a strapdown seeker and an IMU. In order to improve the guidance performance, the setting of the filter against different types of target maneuvers has been studied. In all considered scenarios the EKF yields a remarkable improvement of miss distance values. The used approach and the filter set-up allow to include uncertainties such as misalignments, non synchronisms between sensors or seeker measures aberrations. The introduction of a supervision to adapt the setting to different identified target manoeuvres could be developed. [DOI: 10.1685/CSC09323] About DO