Is there a regulatory trade-off between stability and performance? Evidence from italian banks.

Disentangling the direct causal effect that sanctions exert on bank performance from the indirect through default risk, we show that a trade-off exists for regulators between banks’ performance and stability in Italy. Two key findings provide evidence for the nontriviality of the return-risk nexus: (i) banks’ liquidations are concentrated at the lower-end of the profitability distribution, resulting in (attrition) biased estimates; (ii) the drop-out is informative since it depends on the unobserved measurements of profitability. Despite this evidence, while returns are affected by sanctions and regulatory requirements, default risk is not. However, looking at growth of gross loans, enforcement actions reduce default risk though at a cost of a significant fall in lending, creating a regulatory tradeoff. In fact, through loans’ growth, we account for the key dynamics of intermediaries’ soundness, namely higher profits and less non-performing loans

Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments

This"toolkit"provides quantitative tools to practitioners who want to undertake risk and vulnerability assessments using household data. While one could use price, exchange rate, and balance of payments data to examine macroeconomic shocks, and rainfall data to assess the severity of droughts and floods, we are ultimately interested in their impacts on households - thus the emphasis on household data.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Health Economics&Finance,Poverty Assessment,Financial Intermediation

School inputs, household substitution, and test scores

Empirical studies of the relationship between school inputs and test scores typically do not account for the fact that households will respond to changes in school inputs. This paper presents a dynamic household optimization model relating test scores to school and household inputs, and tests its predictions in two very different low-income country settings -- Zambia and India. The authors measure household spending changes and student test score gains in response to unanticipated as well as anticipated changes in school funding. Consistent with the optimization model, they find in both settings that households offset anticipated grants more than unanticipated grants. They also find that unanticipated school grants lead to significant improvements in student test scores but anticipated grants have no impact on test scores. The results suggest that naïve estimates of public education spending on learning outcomes that do not account for optimal household responses are likely to be considerably biased if used to estimate parameters of an education production function.Tertiary Education,Education For All,Access to Finance,Teaching and Learning,Disability

Employment generation in rural Africa : mid-term results from an experimental evaluation of the Youth Opportunities Program in Northern Uganda

Can cash transfers promote employment and reduce poverty in rural Africa? Will lower youth unemployment and poverty reduce the risk of social instability? The authors experimentally evaluate one of Uganda's largest development programs, which provided thousands of young people nearly unconditional, unsupervised cash transfers to pay for vocational training, tools, and business start-up costs. Mid-term results after two years suggest four main findings. First, despite a lack of central monitoring and accountability, most youth invest the transfer in vocational skills and tools. Second, the economic impacts of the transfer are large: hours of non-household employment double and cash earnings increase by nearly 50 percent relative to the control group. The authors estimate the transfer yields a real annual return on capital of 35 percent on average. Third, the evidence suggests that poor access to credit is a major reason youth cannot start these vocations in the absence of aid. Much of the heterogeneity in impacts is unexplained, however, and is unrelated to conventional economic measures of ability, suggesting we have much to learn about the determinants of entrepreneurship. Finally, these economic gains result in modest improvements in social stability. Measures of social cohesion and community support improve mildly, by roughly 5 to 10 percent, especially among males, most likely because the youth becomes a net giver rather than a net taker in his kin and community network. Most strikingly, we see a 50 percent fall in interpersonal aggression and disputes among males, but a 50 percent increase among females. Neither change seems related to economic performance nor does social cohesion a puzzle to be explored in the next phase of the study. These results suggest that increasing access to credit and capital could stimulate employment growth in rural Africa. In particular, unconditional and unsupervised cash transfers may be a more effective and cost-efficient forming of large-scale aid than commonly believed. A second stage of data collection in 2012 will collect longitudinal economic impacts, additional data on political violence and behavior, and explore alternative theoretical mechanisms.Debt Markets,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Primary Education,Educational Sciences

Evaluating the Impact of Health Programmes

This paper has two broad objectives. The first objective is broadly methodological and deals with some of the more pertinent estimation issues one should be aware of when studying the impact of health status on economic outcomes. We discuss some alternatives for constructing counterfactuals when designing health program evaluations such as randomization, matching and instrumental variables. Our second objective is to present a review of the existing evidence on the impact of health interventions on individual welfare.

Hedge funds: an industry in its adolescence

The dramatic increase in the number of hedge funds and the "institutionalization" of the industry over the past decade have spurred rigorous research into hedge fund performance. This research has tended to uncover more questions than answers about the dynamic and multifaceted hedge fund industry. ; This article presents a simple hedge fund business model in which fund returns are a function of three key elements -- how the funds trade, where they trade, and how the positions are financed. The article also provides methods to help investors, intermediaries, and regulators identify systemic risk factors inherent in hedge fund strategies. ; Estimating these risk factors requires having an accurate history of hedge fund performance. The authors examine recent statistics from three commercial hedge fund databases and discuss the problems with database biases that must be recognized to obtain accurate measures of returns. ; While the data show that today's hedge funds use myriad strategies that have no uniform definition, the proposed business model implies that hedge fund managers are diversifying in order to maximize the enterprise value of their firms. But this diversification does not preclude the risk of leveraged opinions converging onto the same set of bets. Preventing convergence risk will require action by investors, intermediaries, regulators, and fund managers to improve industry-level disclosure and transparency while preserving the privacy of individual hedge funds' positions.Hedge funds

Effect of Regulatory Constraints on Fund Performance: New Evidence from UCITS Hedge Funds

We economically motivate and then test a range of hypotheses regarding performance and risk differences between UCITS-compliant and other hedge funds. The latter exhibit more suspicious return patterns than do absolute return UCITS (ARUs), but ARUs exhibit higher levels of operational risk. We find evidence of a strong liquidity premium: hedge funds offer investors less liquidity than do ARUs yet exhibit better risk-adjusted performance. Our findings are substantially unchanged under various robustness tests and adjustments for possible selection bias. The liquidity premium for ARUs and their lack of performance persistence have implications for both investors and policy makers

The Online Laboratory: Conducting Experiments in a Real Labor Market

Online labor markets have great potential as platforms for conducting experiments, as they provide immediate access to a large and diverse subject pool and allow researchers to conduct randomized controlled trials. We argue that online experiments can be just as valid---both internally and externally---as laboratory and field experiments, while requiring far less money and time to design and to conduct. In this paper, we first describe the benefits of conducting experiments in online labor markets; we then use one such market to replicate three classic experiments and confirm their results. We confirm that subjects (1) reverse decisions in response to how a decision-problem is framed, (2) have pro-social preferences (value payoffs to others positively), and (3) respond to priming by altering their choices. We also conduct a labor supply field experiment in which we confirm that workers have upward sloping labor supply curves. In addition to reporting these results, we discuss the unique threats to validity in an online setting and propose methods for coping with these threats. We also discuss the external validity of results from online domains and explain why online results can have external validity equal to or even better than that of traditional methods, depending on the research question. We conclude with our views on the potential role that online experiments can play within the social sciences, and then recommend software development priorities and best practices

The use of predictive analytics in finance

Statistical and computational methods are being increasingly integrated into Decision Support Systems to aid management and help with strategic decisions. Researchers need to fully understand the use of such techniques in order to make predictions when using financial data. This paper therefore presents a method based literature review focused on the predictive analytics domain. The study comprehensively covers classification, regression, clustering, association and time series models. It expands existing explanatory statistical modelling into the realm of computational modelling. The methods explored enable the prediction of the future through the analysis of financial time series and cross-sectional data that is collected, stored and processed in Information Systems. The output of such models allow financial managers and risk oversight professionals to achieve better outcomes. This review brings the various predictive analytic methods in finance together under one domain

Job Search in Thick Markets: Evidence from Italy

I analyze empirically the effects of both urban and industrial agglomeration on menÂ’s and womenÂ’s search behavior and on the efficiency of matching. The analysis is based on a unique panel data set from the Italian Labor Force Survey micro-data, which covers 520 randomly drawn Local Labor Market Areas (66 percent of the total) over the four quarters of 2002. I compute transition probabilities from non-employment to employment by jointly estimating the probability of searching and the probability of finding a job conditional on having searched, and I test whether these are affected by urbanization and/or industry localization. The main results indicate that both urbanization and industry localization raise job seekersÂ’ chances of finding employment (conditional on having searched), but neither of them affects non-employed individualsÂ’ search behavior.Labor market transitions, search intensity, urbanization, industry localization.