Development of an open-source platform for calculating losses from earthquakes

Risk analysis has a critical role in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible risk assessment numerical tools and software. As a response to this need, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) started the development of an open source platform called OpenQuake, for calculating seismic hazard and risk at different scales. Along with this framework, also several other tools to support users creating their own models and visualizing their results are currently being developed, and will be made available as a Modelers Tool Kit (MTK). In this paper, a description of the architecture of OpenQuake is provided, highlighting the current data model, workflow of the calculators and the main challenges raised when running this type of calculations in a global scale. In addition, a case study is presented using the Marmara Region (Turkey) for the calculations, in which the losses for a single event are estimated, as well as probabilistic risk for a 50 years time span

Seismic Vulnerability of the Italian Roadway Bridge Stock

This study focuses on the seismic vulnerability evaluation of the Italian roadway bridge stock, within the framework of a Civil Protection sponsored project. A comprehensive database of existing bridges (17,000 bridges with different level of knowledge) was implemented. At the core of the study stands a procedure for automatically carrying out state-of-the-art analytical evaluation of fragility curves for two performance levels – damage and collapse – on an individual bridge basis. A webGIS was developed to handle data and results. The main outputs are maps of bridge seismic risk (from the fragilities and the hazard maps) at the national level and real-time scenario damage-probability maps (from the fragilities and the scenario shake maps). In the latter case the webGIS also performs network analysis to identify routes to be followed by rescue teams. Consistency of the fragility derivation over the entire bridge stock is regarded as a major advantage of the adopted approach

Shrinking the Malaria Map: A Prospectus on Malaria Elimination

\ud Thirty-nine countries across the world are making progress toward malaria elimination. Some are committed to nationwide elimination, while others are pursuing spatially progressive elimination within their borders. Influential donor and multilateral organizations are supporting their goals of achieving malaria-free status. With elimination back on the global agenda, countries face a myriad of questions. Should they change their programs to eliminate rather than control malaria? What tools are available? What policies need to be put into place? How will they benefit from elimination? Unfortunately, answers to these questions, and resources for agencies and country program managers considering or pursuing elimination, are scarce. The 39 eliminating countries are all positioned along the endemic margins of the disease, yet they naturally experience a variety of country characteristics and epidemiologies that make their malaria situations different from one another. The Malaria Elimination Group (MEG) and this Prospectus recognize\ud that there is no single solution, strategy, or time line that will be appropriate for every country, and each is encouraged to initiate a comprehensive evaluation of its readiness and strategy for elimination. The Prospectus is designed to guide countries in conducting these assessments. The Prospectus provides detailed and informed discussion on the practical means of achieving and sustaining zero transmission. It is designed as a road map, providing direction and options from which to choose an appropriate path. As on all maps, the destination is clearly marked, but the possible routes to reach it are numerous. The Prospectus is divided into two sections: Section 1 Eliminating Malaria comprises four chapters covering the strategic components important to the periods before, during, and after an elimination program. Section 2 Tools for the Job, comprises six chapters that outline basic information about how interventions in an elimination program will be different from those in a control setting. Chapter 1, Making the Decision, evaluates the issues that a country should consider when deciding whether or not to eliminate malaria. The chapter begins with a discussion about the quantitative and qualitative benefits that a country could expect from eliminating malaria and then recommends a thorough feasibility assessment. The feasibility assessment is based on three major components: operational, technical, and financial feasibility. Cross-border and regional collaboration is a key subject in this chapter. Chapter 2, Getting to Zero, describes changes that programs must consider when moving from sustained control to an elimination goal. The key strategic issues that must be addressed are considered, including supply chains, surveillance systems, intersectoral collaboration, political will, and legislative framework. Cross-border collaboration is again a key component in Getting to Zero. Chapter 3, Holding the Line, provides recommendations on how to conduct an assessment of two key factors that will affect preventing the reemergence of malaria once transmission is interrupted: outbreak risk and importation risk. The chapter emphasizes the need for a strong surveillance system in order to prevent and, if necessary, respond to imported cases. Chapter 4, Financing Elimination, reviews the cost-effectiveness of elimination as compared with sustained control and then presents the costs of selected elimination programs as examples. It evaluates four innovative financing mechanisms that must support elimination, emphasizing the need for predictable and stable financing. Case studies from Swaziland and two provinces in China are provided. Chapter 5, Understanding Malaria, considers malaria from the point of view of elimination and provides a concise overview of the current burden of the disease, malaria transmission, and the available interventions that can be used in an elimination program. Chapter 6, Learning from History, extracts important lessons from the Global Malaria Eradication Program and analyzes some elimination efforts that were successful and some that were unsuccessful. The chapter also reviews how the malaria map has been shrinking since 1900. xiv A Prosp ectus on Mala ria Elimi natio n\ud Chapter 7, Measuring Malaria for Elimination, provides a precise language for discussing malaria and gives the elimination discussion a quantitative structure. The chapter also describes the role of epidemiological theory and mathematical modeling in defining and updating an elimination agenda for malaria. Chapter 8, Killing the Parasite, outlines the importance of case detection and management in an elimination setting. Options for diagnosis, the hidden challenge of Plasmodium vivax in an elimination setting, and the impact of immunity are all discussed. Chapter 9, Suppressing the Vector, explores vector control, a necessary element of any malaria program. It considers optimal methods available to interrupt transmission and discusses potential changes, such as insecticide resistance, that may affect elimination efforts. Chapter 10, Identifying the Gaps — What We Need to Know, reviews the gaps in our understanding of what is required for elimination. The chapter outlines a short-term research agenda with a focus on the operational needs that countries are facing today. The Prospectus reviews the operational, technical, and financial feasibility for those working on the front lines and considers whether, when, and how to eliminate malaria. A companion document, A Guide on Malaria Elimination for Policy Makers, is provided for those countries or agencies whose responsibility is primarily to make the policy decisions on whether to pursue or support a malaria elimination strategy. The Guide is available at www.malaria eliminationgroup.org

Effect of multiple disturbances on food web vulnerability to biodiversity loss in detritus-based systems

Global biodiversity is affected by human pressure and climate change, and the present rate of biodiversity loss is probably higher than ever before. Community composition is also changing, and interspecific interactions are under severe pressure. The extinction of one species within a food web can result in further secondary extinctions, due to bottom-up effects that can be even more intense and less predictable than the direct effects of disturbance, undermining our capacity for ecosystem management and conservation. Here we investigated a metric for assessing the structural stability of food webs in the face of species loss, referred to as "Resistance'', based on two fundamental web properties: (1) the proportion of key species in the web, a "key'' species being one whose deletion leads to at least one secondary extinction, and (2) the mean number of secondary extinctions observed per key species deletion. We compared web Resistance with web Robustness (Dunne et al. 2002) based on 12 detritus-based riverine food webs under four species extinction scenarios on various temporal and spatial scales. We investigated the effect of multiple disturbances (extreme flood and river basin urbanization) on community vulnerability to biodiversity loss, assessing the behavior of Robustness and Resistance under the applied species extinction scenarios and testing their dependence on web topology. We estimated the contribution of the rarest and the most dominant species, and that of the most and least connected species, to web Resistance. Urbanization negatively affected community vulnerability to biodiversity loss. Only food web Resistance showed a significant flood effect and interaction between flood and urbanization. The most connected species contributed the most to food web resistance, whereas the rarest and the most abundant species had a similar, intermediate structural importance. Both food web Resistance and the role of selected key species varied across web description scales. Food web Resistance values were coherent across species extinction scenarios, demonstrating the suitability of the proposed approach for quantifying community vulnerability to species loss and the importance of considering food webs in monitoring and impact assessment programs. The approach is thus seen to be a promising research pathway supporting ecosystem management

Regional biotechnology regulations: Design options and implications for good governance

"Many developing countries are currently in the process of designing regulatory systems that should allow them to use genetically modified organisms (GMOs) for agricultural development, while also managing the food safety and environmental risks potentially associated with these technologies. Various regions of the developing world are seeking to establish regional systems of biotechnology regulation. However, considerable costs are associated with biotechnology regulation, and biosafety specialists are scarce. In addition, there is no consistent understanding of how regional systems of biotechnology regulation can be designed to be effective and efficient, while also fulfilling the principles of good governance, such as transparency, voice and accountability, control of corruption, and avoidance of special interest capture. There are a wide variety of possible regional approaches, differing with regard to the level of centralization, the scope of the regional system, the types of regional institutions and processes, and the types of financing mechanisms. Here, based on findings in the fields of environmental and fiscal federalism and transaction costs economics, we develop a conceptual framework for the assessment of regional systems of biotechnology regulation. The framework specifies design options and assessment criteria, and identifies major trade-offs and their mediating factors. We use the case of West Africa to illustrate this framework, and refer to the European Union for comparison. Our analysis indicates that involving regional experts, stakeholders and policy-makers in the design of a regional regulatory system will help fill knowledge gaps and generate conclusions regarding the trade-offs involved in regional biotechnology regulation." from Author's AbstractRegional biotechnology regulation, Regulatory systems, Transaction cost economics, European Union, Governance,