Retweet modeling using conditional random fields,” in

Abstract-Among the most popular micro-blogging service, Twitter recently introduced their reblogging service called retweet to allow a user to repopulate another user's content for his followers. It quickly becomes one of the most prominent features on Twitter and an important mean for secondary content promotion. However, it remains unclear what motivates users to retweet and whether the retweeting decisions are predictable based on a user's tweeting history and social relationships. In this paper, we propose modeling the retweet patterns using conditional random fields with a three types of user-tweet features: content influence, network influence and temporal decay factor. We also investigate approaches to partition the social graphs and construct the network relations for retweet prediction. Our experiments demonstrate that CRF can improve prediction effectiveness by incorporating social relationships compared to the baselines that do not

Scalable Privacy-Compliant Virality Prediction on Twitter

The digital town hall of Twitter becomes a preferred medium of communication for individuals and organizations across the globe. Some of them reach audiences of millions, while others struggle to get noticed. Given the impact of social media, the question remains more relevant than ever: how to model the dynamics of attention in Twitter. Researchers around the world turn to machine learning to predict the most influential tweets and authors, navigating the volume, velocity, and variety of social big data, with many compromises. In this paper, we revisit content popularity prediction on Twitter. We argue that strict alignment of data acquisition, storage and analysis algorithms is necessary to avoid the common trade-offs between scalability, accuracy and privacy compliance. We propose a new framework for the rapid acquisition of large-scale datasets, high accuracy supervisory signal and multilanguage sentiment prediction while respecting every privacy request applicable. We then apply a novel gradient boosting framework to achieve state-of-the-art results in virality ranking, already before including tweet's visual or propagation features. Our Gradient Boosted Regression Tree is the first to offer explainable, strong ranking performance on benchmark datasets. Since the analysis focused on features available early, the model is immediately applicable to incoming tweets in 18 languages.Comment: AffCon@AAAI-19 Best Paper Award; Presented at AAAI-19 W1: Affective Content Analysi

Using Text Similarity to Detect Social Interactions not Captured by Formal Reply Mechanisms

In modeling social interaction online, it is important to understand when people are reacting to each other. Many systems have explicit indicators of replies, such as threading in discussion forums or replies and retweets in Twitter. However, it is likely these explicit indicators capture only part of people's reactions to each other, thus, computational social science approaches that use them to infer relationships or influence are likely to miss the mark. This paper explores the problem of detecting non-explicit responses, presenting a new approach that uses tf-idf similarity between a user's own tweets and recent tweets by people they follow. Based on a month's worth of posting data from 449 ego networks in Twitter, this method demonstrates that it is likely that at least 11% of reactions are not captured by the explicit reply and retweet mechanisms. Further, these uncaptured reactions are not evenly distributed between users: some users, who create replies and retweets without using the official interface mechanisms, are much more responsive to followees than they appear. This suggests that detecting non-explicit responses is an important consideration in mitigating biases and building more accurate models when using these markers to study social interaction and information diffusion.Comment: A final version of this work was published in the 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on e-Science (e-Science

Efficient Non-parametric Bayesian Hawkes Processes

In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their uncertainty. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. Utilizing the stationarity of the Hawkes process, we efficiently sample random branching structures and thus, we split the Hawkes process into clusters of Poisson processes. We derive two algorithms -- a block Gibbs sampler and a maximum a posteriori estimator based on expectation maximization -- and we show that our methods have a linear time complexity, both theoretically and empirically. On synthetic data, we show our methods to be able to infer flexible Hawkes triggering kernels. On two large-scale Twitter diffusion datasets, we show that our methods outperform the current state-of-the-art in goodness-of-fit and that the time complexity is linear in the size of the dataset. We also observe that on diffusions related to online videos, the learned kernels reflect the perceived longevity for different content types such as music or pets videos

A hierarchical model of non-homogeneous Poisson processes for Twitter retweets

We present a hierarchical model of nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) for information diffusion on online social media, in particular Twitter retweets. The retweets of each original tweet are modelled by a NHPP, for which the intensity function is a product of time-decaying components and another component that depends on the follower count of the original tweet author. The latter allows us to explain or predict the ultimate retweet count by a network centrality-related covariate. The inference algorithm enables the Bayes factor to be computed, to facilitate model selection. Finally, the model is applied to the retweet datasets of two hashtags. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplemen