Techniques for the Fast Simulation of Models of Highly dependable Systems

With the ever-increasing complexity and requirements of highly dependable systems, their evaluation during design and operation is becoming more crucial. Realistic models of such systems are often not amenable to analysis using conventional analytic or numerical methods. Therefore, analysts and designers turn to simulation to evaluate these models. However, accurate estimation of dependability measures of these models requires that the simulation frequently observes system failures, which are rare events in highly dependable systems. This renders ordinary Simulation impractical for evaluating such systems. To overcome this problem, simulation techniques based on importance sampling have been developed, and are very effective in certain settings. When importance sampling works well, simulation run lengths can be reduced by several orders of magnitude when estimating transient as well as steady-state dependability measures. This paper reviews some of the importance-sampling techniques that have been developed in recent years to estimate dependability measures efficiently in Markov and nonMarkov models of highly dependable system

Regenerative Simulation for Queueing Networks with Exponential or Heavier Tail Arrival Distributions

Multiclass open queueing networks find wide applications in communication, computer and fabrication networks. Often one is interested in steady-state performance measures associated with these networks. Conceptually, under mild conditions, a regenerative structure exists in multiclass networks, making them amenable to regenerative simulation for estimating the steady-state performance measures. However, typically, identification of a regenerative structure in these networks is difficult. A well known exception is when all the interarrival times are exponentially distributed, where the instants corresponding to customer arrivals to an empty network constitute a regenerative structure. In this paper, we consider networks where the interarrival times are generally distributed but have exponential or heavier tails. We show that these distributions can be decomposed into a mixture of sums of independent random variables such that at least one of the components is exponentially distributed. This allows an easily implementable embedded regenerative structure in the Markov process. We show that under mild conditions on the network primitives, the regenerative mean and standard deviation estimators are consistent and satisfy a joint central limit theorem useful for constructing asymptotically valid confidence intervals. We also show that amongst all such interarrival time decompositions, the one with the largest mean exponential component minimizes the asymptotic variance of the standard deviation estimator.Comment: A preliminary version of this paper will appear in Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference, Washington, DC, 201

Electrical Compartmentalization in Neurons

The dendritic tree of neurons plays an important role in information processing in the brain. While it is thought that dendrites require independent subunits to perform most of their computations, it is still not understood how they compartmentalize into functional subunits. Here, we show how these subunits can be deduced from the properties of dendrites. We devised a formalism that links the dendritic arborization to an impedance-based tree graph and show how the topology of this graph reveals independent subunits. This analysis reveals that cooperativity between synapses decreases slowly with increasing electrical separation and thus that few independent subunits coexist. We nevertheless find that balanced inputs or shunting inhibition can modify this topology and increase the number and size of the subunits in a context-dependent manner. We also find that this dynamic recompartmentalization can enable branch-specific learning of stimulus features. Analysis of dendritic patch-clamp recording experiments confirmed our theoretical predictions.Peer reviewe

Importance sampling in systems simulation: A practical failure?

sampling;queuing theory;operations research

Perfect Simulation of M/G/cM/G/c Queues

In this paper we describe a perfect simulation algorithm for the stable $M/G/c$ queue. Sigman (2011: Exact Simulation of the Stationary Distribution of the FIFO M/G/c Queue. Journal of Applied Probability, 48A, 209--213) showed how to build a dominated CFTP algorithm for perfect simulation of the super-stable $M/G/c$ queue operating under First Come First Served discipline, with dominating process provided by the corresponding $M/G/1$ queue (using Wolff's sample path monotonicity, which applies when service durations are coupled in order of initiation of service), and exploiting the fact that the workload process for the $M/G/1$ queue remains the same under different queueing disciplines, in particular under the Processor Sharing discipline, for which a dynamic reversibility property holds. We generalize Sigman's construction to the stable case by comparing the $M/G/c$ queue to a copy run under Random Assignment. This allows us to produce a naive perfect simulation algorithm based on running the dominating process back to the time it first empties. We also construct a more efficient algorithm that uses sandwiching by lower and upper processes constructed as coupled $M/G/c$ queues started respectively from the empty state and the state of the $M/G/c$ queue under Random Assignment. A careful analysis shows that appropriate ordering relationships can still be maintained, so long as service durations continue to be coupled in order of initiation of service. We summarize statistical checks of simulation output, and demonstrate that the mean run-time is finite so long as the second moment of the service duration distribution is finite.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figure

Calculation of Reliability Characteristics for Regenerative Models

If a regenerative process is represented as semi-regenerative, we derive formulae enabling us to calculate basic characteristics associated with the first occurrence time starting from corresponding characteristics for the semi-regenerative process. Recursive equations, integral equations, and Monte-Carlo algorithms are proposed for practical solving of the problem