Productivity, Preferences and UIP deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (i) traded and non-traded sectors; (ii) financial market incompleteness; (iii) preference shocks; (iv) deviations from UIP condition for the exchange rates; and (v) creditor status in net foreign assets. We find that there is a good case for both traded and non-traded productivity shocks as well as UIP deviations in explaining the puzzles

Macroeconomics of international price discrimination

This paper builds a baseline two-country model of real and monetary transmission in the presence of optimal international price discrimination by firms. Distributing traded goods to consumers requires nontradables, intensive in local labor. Because of distributive trade the price elasticity of demand depends on country-specific shocks to productivity and the exchange rate. Hence, within limits dictated by the possibility of arbitrage, profit-maximizing monopolistic firms drive a wedge between prices across countries at both wholesale and retail level. Optimal pricing thus results in possibly large deviations from the law of one price and incomplete pass-through on import prices. Consistent with the received wisdom on international transmission, nominal and real depreciations worsens the terms of trade. In general, the nominal and real exchange rate are more volatile than fundamentals, and large movements in the international prices translate into small changes in consumption, employment and the price level. Finally, we provide an example showing that international policy cooperation may be redundant even when asset trading is ruled out, despite incomplete pass-through and less than optimal risk sharing.exchange rate pass-through, wholesale and retail prices, nominal rigidities, international cooperation

Media Analysis on Volatile Markets’ Dynamics and Adaptive Behavior for the Agri-Food System

The volatility of agricultural markets has increased remarkably in recent years. In spite of this, the way in which supply chain actors perceive market volatility has only rarely been analyzed. This paper seeks to close this research gap by presenting empirical findings about how the volatility of agricultural markets is perceived, how increasing market volatilities are being explained, and what adaptations to the volatile external environments are being suggested. Based on a large-scale media analysis, we have identified perceptions, which vary greatly over time, especially with regard to the perception of the threats and opportunities volatility creates for farms and firms and the most frequently identified reasons for volatile pricesagriculture, media analysis, public discourse, shared assumptions, volatility, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

Risk management in electricity markets: hedging and market incompleteness

The high volatility of electricity markets gives producers and retailers an incentive to hedge their exposure to electricity prices by buying and selling derivatives. This paper studies how welfare and investment incentives are affected when markets for derivatives are introduced, and to what extent this depends on market completeness. We develop an equilibrium model of the electricity market with risk-averse firms and a set of traded financial products, more specifically: forwards and an increasing number of options. Using this model, we first show that aggregate welfare in the market increases with the number of derivatives offered. If firms are concerned with large negative shocks to their profitability due to liquidity constraints, option markets are particularly attractive from a welfare point of view. Secondly, we demonstrate that increasing the number of derivatives improves investment decisions of small firms (especially when firms are risk-averse), because the additional financial markets signal to firms how they can reduce the overall sector risk. Also the information content of prices increases: the quality of investment decisions based on risk-free probabilities, inferred from market prices, improves as markets become more complete Finally, we show that government intervention may be needed, because private investors may not have the right incentives to create the optimal number of markets.

Risk management in electricity markets: hedging and market incompleteness.

The high volatility of electricity markets gives producers and retailers an incentive to hedge their exposure to electricity prices by buying and selling derivatives. This paper studies how welfare and investment incentives are affected when markets for derivatives are introduced, and to what extent this depends on market completeness. We develop an equilibrium model of the electricity market with riskaverse firms and a set of traded financial products, more specifically: forwards and an increasing number of options. Using this model, we first show that aggregate welfare in the market increases with the number of derivatives offered. If firms are concerned with large negative shocks to their profitability due to liquidity constraints, option markets are particularly attractive from a welfare point of view. Secondly, we demonstrate that increasing the number of derivatives improves investment decisions of small firms (especially when firms are risk-averse), because the additional financial markets signal to firms how they can reduce the overall sector risk. Also the information content of prices increases: the quality of investment decisions based on risk-free probabilities, inferred from market prices, improves as markets become more complete Finally, we show that government intervention may be needed, because private investors may not have the right incentives to create the optimal number of markets.

Input Production Joint Venture

In many industries it is quite common to observe firms delegating the production of essential inputs to independent ventures jointly established with competing rivals. The diffusion of this arrangement and the favourable stance of competition authorities call for the assessment of the social and private desirability of Input Production Joint Ventures (IPJV), which represent a form of input production cooperation, not investigated so far. IPJV can be seen as an intermediate organizational setting lying between the two extremes of vertical integration and vertical separation. Our investigation is based on an oligopoly model with horizontally differentiated goods. We characterize the conditions under which IPJV is privately optimal finding that firms’ incentives may be welfare detrimental. We also provide a rationale for the empirical relevance of IPJV both in terms of its ability to survive and in terms of disengagement incentives.Input Production Joint Venture, Horizontal Differentiation, Oligopoly

Investment Volatility : A Critique of Standard Beta Estimation and a Simple Way Forward

Thanks are due to Markus Becker for useful comments on an earlier version of this essay. Beta is a widely used quantity in investment analysis. We review the common interpretations that are applied to beta in finance and show that the standard method of estimation least squares regression is inconsistent with these interpretations. We present the case for an alternative beta estimator which is more appropriate, as well as being easier to understand and to calculate. Unlike regression, the line fit we propose treats both variables in the same way. Remarkably, it provides a slope that is precisely the ratio of the volatility of the investments rate of return to the volatility of the market index rate of return (or the equivalent excess rates of returns). Hence, this line fitting method gives an alternative beta, which corresponds exactly to the relative volatility of an investment - which is one of the usual interpretations attached to beta. Keywords- investment analysis, financial risk, volatility, systematic risk

Wage Determination Under Communism and In Transition: Evidence from Central Europe

Using large firm-level data sets from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, we show that the wage behavior of firms changed considerably as these economies launched their transitions to a market system. We find evidence of worker sharing in their enterprise rents and losses at the end of the communist period in some economies and within a year after the launching of the transition, we find rent sharing in all of them. Using the Czech and Slovak data we show that the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that existed under communism and survived allow for less worker rent-sharing than other firms. We also test for the presence of a wage curve and with the exception of Slovakia we do not find a significant association between local unemployment and wages. Finally, we do not find significant effects of firm ownership on wages.

Market completeness: how options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector.

The high volatility of electricity markets gives producers and retailers an incentive to hedge their exposure to electricity prices by buying and selling derivatives. This paper studies how welfare and investment incentives are affected when an increasing number of derivatives are introduced. It develops an equilibrium model of the electricity market with risk averse firms and a set of traded financial products, more specifically: a forward contract and an increasing number of options. We first show that aggregate welfare (the sum of individual firms' utility) increases with the number of derivatives offered, although most of the benefits are captured with one to three options. Secondly, power plant investments typically increase because additional derivatives enable better hedging of investments. However, the availability of derivatives sometimes leads to ‘crowding-out’ of physical investments because capital is being used more profitably to speculate on financial markets. Finally, we illustrate that players basing their investment decisions on risk-free probabilities inferred from market prices, may significantly overinvest when markets are not sufficiently complete.

International trade in durable goods: understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elastics

Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3. net exports are counter-cyclical. Standard models fail to replicate the behavior of imports and exports, though they can match net exports relatively well. Inspired by the fact that a large fraction of international trade is in durable goods, we propose a two-country two-sector model, in which durable goods are traded across countries.> ; Our model can match the business cycle statistics on the volatility and comovement of the imports and exports relatively well. In addition, the model with trade in durables helps to understand the empirical regularity noted in the trade literature: home and foreign goods are highly substitutable in the long run, but the short-run elasticity of substitution is low. We note that durable consumption also has implications for the appropriate measures of consumption and prices to assess risk-sharing opportunities, as in the empirical work on the Backus-Smith puzzle. The fact that our model can match data better in multiple dimensions suggests that trade in durable goods may be an important element in open-economy macro models.Durable goods, Consumer ; International trade