Representing and Evaluating Legal Narratives with Subscenarios in a Bayesian network

In legal cases, stories or scenarios can serve as the context for a crime when reasoning with evidence. In order to develop a scientifically founded technique for evidential reasoning, a method is required for the representation and evaluation of various scenarios in a case. In this paper the probabilistic technique of Bayesian networks is proposed as a method for modeling narrative, and it is shown how this can be used to capture a number of narrative properties. Bayesian networks quantify how the variables in a case interact. Recent research on Bayesian networks applied to legal cases includes the development of a list of legal idioms: recurring substructures in legal Bayesian networks. Scenarios are coherent presentations of a collection of states and events, and qualitative in nature. A method combining the quantitative, probabilistic approach with the narrative approach would strengthen the tools to represent and evaluate scenarios. In a previous paper, the development of a design method for modeling multiple scenarios in a Bayesian network was initiated. The design method includes two narrative idioms: the scenario idiom and the merged scenarios idiom. In this current paper, the method of Vlek, et al. (2013) is extended with a subscenario idiom and it is shown how the method can be used to represent characteristic features of narrative

Unfolding crime scenarios with variations:a method for building a Bayesian network for legal narratives

Legal reasoning can be approached from various perspectives, traditionally argumentation, probability and narrative. The communication between forensic experts and a judge or jury would benefit from an integration of these approaches. In previous papers we worked on the connection between the narrative and the probabilistic approach. We developed techniques for representing crime scenarios in a Bayesian network. But for complex cases, the construction of a Bayesian network structure using these techniques remained a cumbersome task. In this paper we therefore propose a method called unfolding a scenario and a representation for small variations within a scenario. With these tools, a Bayesian network can be built up step by step, gradually adding more details. The method of unfolding a scenario is intended to support the process of building a Bayesian network, additionally resulting in a well-structured graphical structure

Telling stories with personas

Even though the persona method is a well-known tool in the Human-Technology Interaction field for knowing users and their goals, tasks and environments, there are varying opinions about how personas should be developed and used. Many agree that combining personas with scenarios and user stories is useful, but scenarios and user stories can also be defined and used in various ways. The purpose of my master's thesis is to examine with a literature review different ways to develop and use personas together with scenarios and user stories. My thesis aims to gain a broad picture of the topic rather than confirm one, single perspective. I will search for sources in multiple places since quantitative research alone cannot provide complete enough answers to my research questions. I have divided personas into four types based on my literature review. Manual, semi-automatic and automatic personas are based on mostly user research, but they vary on how many steps in their development are done manually. Expert personas are based on knowledge gathered from stakeholders, literature and other experts. Designers should decide the type of persona based on the purpose of the project and available data and resources. The most important elements in persona description are a photo, name, background information, goals, pain points and story. All personas in the project should be comparable by using the same elements in persona descriptions and same layout in persona documents. Deciding what sources are included in a literature review and how extensively new sources are searched for are always subjective decisions. Another limitation of my thesis is that it does not cover visual design methods, such as storyboards or user journeys. There is some academic research about personas, scenarios and user stories, but knowledge about this topic could be broadened and deepened by conducting more research on the effectiveness, popularity and usage of these methods. Comparisons of practices between countries and companies would also be interesting