Regularized covariance estimation for weighted maximum likelihood policy search methods

Many episode-based (or direct) policy search algorithms, maintain a multivariate Gaussian distribution as search distribution over the parameter space of some objective function. One class of algorithms, such as episodic REPS, PoWER or PI2 uses, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WMLE) to update the mean and covariance matrix of this distribution in each iteration. However, due to high dimensionality of covariance matrices and limited number of samples, the WMLE is an unreliable estimator. The use of WMLE leads to over-fitted covariance estimates, and, hence the variance/entropy of the search distribution decreases too quickly, which may cause premature convergence. In order to alleviate this problem, the estimated covariance matrix can be regularized in different ways, for example by using a convex combination of the diagonal covariance estimate and the sample covariance estimate. In this paper, we propose a new covariance matrix regularization technique for policy search methods that uses the convex combination of the sample covariance matrix and the old covariance matrix used in last iteration. The combination weighting is determined by specifying the desired entropy of the new search distribution. With this mechanism, the entropy of the search distribution can be gradually decreased without damage from the maximum likelihood estimate

Information theoretic stochastic search

The MAP-i Doctoral Programme in Informatics, of the Universities of Minho, Aveiro and PortoOptimization is the research field that studies the design of algorithms for finding the best solutions to problems we may throw at them. While the whole domain is practically important, the present thesis will focus on the subfield of continuous black-box optimization, presenting a collection of novel, state-of-the-art algorithms for solving problems in that class. In this thesis, we introduce two novel general-purpose stochastic search algorithms for black box optimisation. Stochastic search algorithms aim at repeating the type of mutations that led to fittest search points in a population. We can model those mutations by a stochastic distribution. Typically the stochastic distribution is modelled as a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The key idea is to iteratively change the parameters of the distribution towards higher expected fitness. However we leverage information theoretic trust regions and limit the change of the new distribution. We show how plain maximisation of the fitness expectation without bounding the change of the distribution is destined to fail because of overfitting and the results in premature convergence. Being derived from first principles, the proposed methods can be elegantly extended to contextual learning setting which allows for learning context dependent stochastic distributions that generates optimal individuals for a given context, i.e, instead of learning one task at a time, we can learn multiple related tasks at once. However, the search distribution typically uses a parametric model using some hand-defined context features. Finding good context features is a challenging task, and hence, non-parametric methods are often preferred over their parametric counter-parts. Therefore, we further propose a non-parametric contextual stochastic search algorithm that can learn a non-parametric search distribution for multiple tasks simultaneously.Otimização é área de investigação que estuda o projeto de algoritmos para encontrar as melhores soluções, tendo em conta um conjunto de critérios, para problemas complexos. Embora todo o domínio de otimização tenha grande importância, este trabalho está focado no subcampo da otimização contínua de caixa preta, apresentando uma coleção de novos algoritmos novos de última geração para resolver problemas nessa classe. Nesta tese, apresentamos dois novos algoritmos de pesquisa estocástica de propósito geral para otimização de caixa preta. Os algoritmos de pesquisa estocástica visam repetir o tipo de mutações que levaram aos melhores pontos de pesquisa numa população. Podemos modelar essas mutações por meio de uma distribuição estocástica e, tipicamente, a distribuição estocástica é modelada como uma distribuição Gaussiana multivariada. A ideia chave é mudar iterativamente os parâmetros da distribuição incrementando a avaliação. No entanto, alavancamos as regiões de confiança teóricas de informação e limitamos a mudança de distribuição. Deste modo, demonstra-se como a maximização simples da expectativa de “fitness”, sem limites da mudança da distribuição, está destinada a falhar devido ao “overfitness” e à convergência prematura resultantes. Sendo derivado dos primeiros princípios, as abordagens propostas podem ser ampliadas, de forma elegante, para a configuração de aprendizagem contextual que permite a aprendizagem de distribuições estocásticas dependentes do contexto que geram os indivíduos ideais para um determinado contexto. No entanto, a distribuição de pesquisa geralmente usa um modelo paramétrico linear em algumas das características contextuais definidas manualmente. Encontrar uma contextos bem definidos é uma tarefa desafiadora e, portanto, os métodos não paramétricos são frequentemente preferidos em relação às seus semelhantes paramétricos. Portanto, propomos um algoritmo não paramétrico de pesquisa estocástica contextual que possa aprender uma distribuição de pesquisa não-paramétrica para várias tarefas simultaneamente.FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia. As well as fundings by European Union’s FP7 under EuRoC grant agreement CP-IP 608849 and by LIACC (UID/CEC/00027/2015) and IEETA (UID/CEC/00127/2015)

Multilevel Weighted Support Vector Machine for Classification on Healthcare Data with Missing Values

This work is motivated by the needs of predictive analytics on healthcare data as represented by Electronic Medical Records. Such data is invariably problematic: noisy, with missing entries, with imbalance in classes of interests, leading to serious bias in predictive modeling. Since standard data mining methods often produce poor performance measures, we argue for development of specialized techniques of data-preprocessing and classification. In this paper, we propose a new method to simultaneously classify large datasets and reduce the effects of missing values. It is based on a multilevel framework of the cost-sensitive SVM and the expected maximization imputation method for missing values, which relies on iterated regression analyses. We compare classification results of multilevel SVM-based algorithms on public benchmark datasets with imbalanced classes and missing values as well as real data in health applications, and show that our multilevel SVM-based method produces fast, and more accurate and robust classification results.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1503.0625

Deriving and improving CMA-ES with Information geometric trust regions

CMA-ES is one of the most popular stochastic search algorithms. It performs favourably in many tasks without the need of extensive parameter tuning. The algorithm has many beneficial properties, including automatic step-size adaptation, efficient covariance updates that incorporates the current samples as well as the evolution path and its invariance properties. Its update rules are composed of well established heuristics where the theoretical foundations of some of these rules are also well understood. In this paper we will fully derive all CMA-ES update rules within the framework of expectation-maximisation-based stochastic search algorithms using information-geometric trust regions. We show that the use of the trust region results in similar updates to CMA-ES for the mean and the covariance matrix while it allows for the derivation of an improved update rule for the step-size. Our new algorithm, Trust-Region Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (TR-CMA-ES) is fully derived from first order optimization principles and performs favourably in compare to standard CMA-ES algorithm