A Methodology for Fitting and Validating Metamodels in Simulation

This expository paper discusses the relationships among metamodels, simulation models, and problem entities. A metamodel or response surface is an approximation of the input/output function implied by the underlying simulation model. There are several types of metamodel: linear regression, splines, neural networks, etc. This paper distinguishes between fitting and validating a metamodel. Metamodels may have different goals: (i) understanding, (ii) prediction, (iii) optimization, and (iv) verification and validation. For this metamodeling, a process with thirteen steps is proposed. Classic design of experiments (DOE) is summarized, including standard measures of fit such as the R-square coefficient and cross-validation measures. This DOE is extended to sequential or stagewise DOE. Several validation criteria, measures, and estimators are discussed. Metamodels in general are covered, along with a procedure for developing linear regression (including polynomial) metamodels.

Solving optimisation problems in metal forming using Finite Element simulation and metamodelling techniques

During the last decades, Finite Element (FEM) simulations\ud of metal forming processes have become important\ud tools for designing feasible production processes. In more\ud recent years, several authors recognised the potential of\ud coupling FEM simulations to mathematical optimisation\ud algorithms to design optimal metal forming processes instead\ud of only feasible ones.\ud Within the current project, an optimisation strategy is being\ud developed, which is capable of optimising metal forming\ud processes in general using time consuming nonlinear\ud FEM simulations. The expression “optimisation strategy”\ud is used to emphasise that the focus is not solely on solving\ud optimisation problems by an optimisation algorithm, but\ud the way these optimisation problems in metal forming are\ud modelled is also investigated. This modelling comprises\ud the quantification of objective functions and constraints\ud and the selection of design variables.\ud This paper, however, is concerned with the choice for\ud and the implementation of an optimisation algorithm for\ud solving optimisation problems in metal forming. Several\ud groups of optimisation algorithms can be encountered in\ud metal forming literature: classical iterative, genetic and\ud approximate optimisation algorithms are already applied\ud in the field. We propose a metamodel based optimisation\ud algorithm belonging to the latter group, since approximate\ud algorithms are relatively efficient in case of time consuming\ud function evaluations such as the nonlinear FEM calculations\ud we are considering. Additionally, approximate optimisation\ud algorithms strive for a global optimum and do\ud not need sensitivities, which are quite difficult to obtain\ud for FEM simulations. A final advantage of approximate\ud optimisation algorithms is the process knowledge, which\ud can be gained by visualising metamodels.\ud In this paper, we propose a sequential approximate optimisation\ud algorithm, which incorporates both Response\ud Surface Methodology (RSM) and Design and Analysis\ud of Computer Experiments (DACE) metamodelling techniques.\ud RSM is based on fitting lower order polynomials\ud by least squares regression, whereas DACE uses Kriging\ud interpolation functions as metamodels. Most authors in\ud the field of metal forming use RSM, although this metamodelling\ud technique was originally developed for physical\ud experiments that are known to have a stochastic na-\ud ¤Faculty of Engineering Technology (Applied Mechanics group),\ud University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE, Enschede, The Netherlands,\ud email: [email protected]\ud ture due to measurement noise present. This measurement\ud noise is absent in case of deterministic computer experiments\ud such as FEM simulations. Hence, an interpolation\ud model fitted by DACE is thought to be more applicable in\ud combination with metal forming simulations. Nevertheless,\ud the proposed algorithm utilises both RSM and DACE\ud metamodelling techniques.\ud As a Design Of Experiments (DOE) strategy, a combination\ud of a maximin spacefilling Latin Hypercubes Design\ud and a full factorial design was implemented, which takes\ud into account explicit constraints. Additionally, the algorithm\ud incorporates cross validation as a metamodel validation\ud technique and uses a Sequential Quadratic Programming\ud algorithm for metamodel optimisation. To overcome\ud the problem of ending up in a local optimum, the\ud SQP algorithm is initialised from every DOE point, which\ud is very time efficient since evaluating the metamodels can\ud be done within a fraction of a second. The proposed algorithm\ud allows for sequential improvement of the metamodels\ud to obtain a more accurate optimum.\ud As an example case, the optimisation algorithm was applied\ud to obtain the optimised internal pressure and axial\ud feeding load paths to minimise wall thickness variations\ud in a simple hydroformed product. The results are satisfactory,\ud which shows the good applicability of metamodelling\ud techniques to optimise metal forming processes using\ud time consuming FEM simulations

Optimization of a single-stage double-suction centrifugal pump

In this study, the objective of the optimization of a double-suction pump is the maximization of its hydraulic efficiency. The optimization is performed, by means of the modeFRONTIER optimization platform, in steps. At first, by means of a DOE (Design of Experiments) strategy, the design space is explored, using a parameterized CAD representation of the pump. Suitable metamodels (surrogates or Response Surfaces), which represent an economical alternative to the more expensive 3D CFD model, are built and tested. Among different metamodels, the evolutionary design, radial basis function and the stepwise regression models seem to be the most promising ones. Finally, the stepwise regression model, trained on a set of 200 designs and constructed with only five the most influential input design parameters, was chosen as a potentially applicable metamodel

A metamodel based optimisation algorithm for metal forming processes

Cost saving and product improvement have always been important goals in the metal\ud forming industry. To achieve these goals, metal forming processes need to be optimised. During\ud the last decades, simulation software based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) has significantly\ud contributed to designing feasible processes more easily. More recently, the possibility of\ud coupling FEM to mathematical optimisation algorithms is offering a very promising opportunity\ud to design optimal metal forming processes instead of only feasible ones. However, which\ud optimisation algorithm to use is still not clear.\ud In this paper, an optimisation algorithm based on metamodelling techniques is proposed\ud for optimising metal forming processes. The algorithm incorporates nonlinear FEM simulations\ud which can be very time consuming to execute. As an illustration of its capabilities, the\ud proposed algorithm is applied to optimise the internal pressure and axial feeding load paths\ud of a hydroforming process. The product formed by the optimised process outperforms products\ud produced by other, arbitrarily selected load paths. These results indicate the high potential of\ud the proposed algorithm for optimising metal forming processes using time consuming FEM\ud simulations

Design of Experiments: An Overview

Design Of Experiments (DOE) is needed for experiments with real-life systems, and with either deterministic or random simulation models. This contribution discusses the different types of DOE for these three domains, but focusses on random simulation. DOE may have two goals: sensitivity analysis including factor screening and optimization. This contribution starts with classic DOE including 2k-p and Central Composite designs. Next, it discusses factor screening through Sequential Bifurcation. Then it discusses Kriging including Latin Hyper cube Sampling and sequential designs. It ends with optimization through Generalized Response Surface Methodology and Kriging combined with Mathematical Programming, including Taguchian robust optimization.simulation;sensitivity analysis;optimization;factor screening;Kriging;RSM;Taguchi

Kriging Metamodeling in Simulation: A Review

This article reviews Kriging (also called spatial correlation modeling). It presents the basic Kriging assumptions and formulas contrasting Kriging and classic linear regression metamodels. Furthermore, it extends Kriging to random simulation, and discusses bootstrapping to estimate the variance of the Kriging predictor. Besides classic one-shot statistical designs such as Latin Hypercube Sampling, it reviews sequentialized and customized designs. It ends with topics for future research.Kriging;Metamodel;Response Surface;Interpolation;Design

Metamodel variability analysis combining bootstrapping and validation techniques

Research on metamodel-based optimization has received considerably increasing interest in recent years, and has found successful applications in solving computationally expensive problems. The joint use of computer simulation experiments and metamodels introduces a source of uncertainty that we refer to as metamodel variability. To analyze and quantify this variability, we apply bootstrapping to residuals derived as prediction errors computed from cross-validation. The proposed method can be used with different types of metamodels, especially when limited knowledge on parameters’ distribution is available or when a limited computational budget is allowed. Our preliminary experiments based on the robust version of the EOQ model show encouraging results

Design and Analysis of Monte Carlo Experiments

monte carlo experiments;simulation models;mathematical analysis;sensitivity analysis;experimental design