Mapping and assessing ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape following a tiered approach

Agricultural ecosystems are anthropogenically highly transformed ecosystems, mainly designed to maximise the delivery of provisioning ecosystem services (ES) such as food, material and fuel, often at the expense of other ES. Especially, conventional agriculture and agricultural landscape simplification have become major causes of climate change, ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss. At the same time, the production of provisioning services depends on other, mainly regulating, ES. In the long-term, the viability of agricultural ecosystems and the delivery of provisioning ES rely on more sustainable farming practices and the conservation of ES and biodiversity. This calls for a shift in the agricultural production paradigm, towards more multifunctional and sustainable agricultural landscapes. Spatially explicit assessments of ES are key components in supporting the shift towards sustainable land use management: they inform on how and where land use decisions can affect ecosystems, on potential trade-offs between the delivery of different ES and help to design targeted ES conservation measures. Understanding the distribution patterns and the main drivers influencing the delivery of ES is needed to determine where land use management measures can be improved to maximise the delivery of (specific) ES. Specifically, spatial information on ES can assist economical decisions underlying agricultural practices: for instance, higher pollination and natural pest control ES potentials can increase crop yields and save resources. The central question of this thesis is to assess how different ES assessment methods influence the predictions of ES supply potential, aiming to find the adapted level of information needed for an ES assessment at the local scale, in an agricultural landscape. To address this research question, several ES mapping and assessment methods, using simple (tier 1) to more complex (tiers 2 and 3) approaches, were developed and applied to a case study area in northern Germany. Additionally, this work aims at informing land use planners and decision-makers on the capacity of the landscape to deliver multiple ES. First, the ES matrix approach (tier 1) was used to assess the importance of spatial resolution and of accounting for ecosystem condition (tier 2). The two following studies developed and implemented more complex methods (tier 3) based on species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were used to model the relationships between ES providers (ESP) (here wild bees and natural enemies of pests) and a combination of abiotic and biotic factors at different scales. The results of this thesis show that designing multifunctional landscapes ideally requires a rather comprehensive assessment. For most regulation and cultural ES, simple proxies are not suitable for a local quantitative assessment of ES, as they cannot sufficiently cover the spatial heterogeneity of ES capacities and functions that arise from different ecosystem properties and conditions. This is particularly the case of ES delivered by living and mobile organisms such as pollination and natural pest control, whose potentials are determined by multi-scale variables and processes. A comprehensive assessment of every ES is, however, often not feasible. This thesis shows how the use of different modelling methods and the tiered approach can assist in the assessment of multiple ES. Proxy indicators and models should be used whenever empirical data and knowledge of ecological processes are limited. Indicators and models are, however, only simplified representations of complex processes. ES mapping and assessment outputs should therefore be interpreted considering the assumptions behind the models and knowing the associated uncertainties.Landwirtschaftliche Ökosysteme (ÖS) sind anthropogen stark veränderte ÖS, die hauptsächlich darauf ausgelegt sind, die Bereitstellung von Ökosystemleistungen (ÖSL) wie Nahrung, Material und Brennstoff zu maximieren - oft auf Kosten anderer ÖSL. Insbesondere die konventionelle Landwirtschaft und die Vereinfachung der Agrarlandschaft sind wesentlich mitverantwortlich für den Klimawandel, die Verschlechterung von ÖS und den Verlust der biologischen Vielfalt. Gleichzeitig hängt die Fähigkeit eines ÖS Nahrung und andere Rohstoffe zur Verfügung zu stellen von anderen, hauptsächlich regulierenden, ÖSL ab. Langfristig hängen die Lebensfähigkeit landwirtschaftlicher ÖS und die Bereitstellung von ÖSL von nachhaltigeren landwirtschaftlichen Praktiken und der Erhaltung von Ökosystemen in gutem Zustand und der Biodiversität ab. Räumlich explizite Bewertungen von ÖSL sind ein Schlüssel zur Unterstützung eines nachhaltigen Landnutzungsmanagements: Sie informieren, wie und wo Ökosysteme beeinflussen werden können, über potenzielle Kompromisse zwischen der Bereitstellung verschiedener ÖSL und helfen bei der Entwicklung gezielter Maßnahmen zur Erhaltung von ÖSL. Insbesondere räumliche Informationen zu ÖSL können wirtschaftliche Entscheidungen unterstützen: Höhere Bestäubungs- und natürliche Schädlingsbekämpfungspotentiale von ÖSL können beispielsweise die Ernteerträge steigern und Ressourcen sparen. Die zentrale Frage dieser Arbeit ist es zu bewerten wie verschiedene ÖSL-Bewertungsmethoden die Vorhersagen des ÖSL-Versorgungspotentials auf lokaler Ebene beeinflussen. Dafür wurden mehrere ÖSL-Kartierungs- und Bewertungsmethoden unter Verwendung einfacher (Stufe 1) bis hin zu komplexeren (Stufen 2 und 3) Ansätzen entwickelt und auf ein Fallstudiengebiet in Norddeutschland angewendet. Darüber hinaus sollen Landnutzungsplaner und Entscheidungsträger über die Fähigkeit der Landschaft informiert werden mehrere ÖS bereitzustellen. Zunächst wurde der ÖSL-Matrix-Ansatz (Stufe 1) verwendet, um die Bedeutung der räumlichen Auflösung und der Berücksichtigung des Ökosystemzustands (Stufe 2) zu bewerten. Die beiden nachfolgenden Studien entwickelten und implementierten komplexere Methoden (Stufe 3) auf der Grundlage von Artenverteilungsmodellen („species distribution models“ - SDMs). SDMs wurden verwendet, um die Beziehungen zwischen ÖSL-Anbietern (hier Wildbienen und natürlichen Feinden) und mit abiotischen und biotischen Faktoren auf verschiedenen Skalen zu modellieren. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass die Gestaltung multifunktionaler Landschaften eine umfassende Bewertung erfordert. Für die meisten regulatorischen und kulturellen ÖSLs sind einfache Proxys nicht für eine lokale quantitative Bewertung von ÖSL geeignet, da sie die räumliche Heterogenität von ÖSL-Kapazitäten und -Funktionen, die sich aus unterschiedlichen Ökosystemeigenschaften und -bedingungen ergeben, nicht ausreichend abdecken können. Dies gilt insbesondere für ÖSL, die von lebenden und mobilen Organismen wie Bestäubung und Schädlingsbekämpfung geliefert werden, deren Potenziale durch mehrskalige Variablen und Prozesse bestimmt werden. Eine umfassende Bewertung aller ÖSL ist jedoch oft nicht praktikabel. Diese Arbeit zeigt, wie die Verwendung verschiedener Modellierungsmethoden und der gestufte Ansatz bei der Bewertung mehrerer ÖSL helfen können. Proxy-Indikatoren und -Modelle sollten verwendet werden, wenn empirische Daten und Kenntnisse über ökologische Prozesse begrenzt sind

Danger Close: Military Politicization and Elite Credibility

This dissertation analyzes the relationship between the American public and the military institution as a source of political information. As much of the study of international relations and domestic institutions suggests, leaders considering policy options are sensitive to public opinion regarding those policies; as such, it is of considerable import to understand how the public forms those attitudes. Though traditional study has focused on the influence of partisan leaders and media elites in shaping the public\u27s base of information, comparatively little has been devoted to understanding the role of military elites in this process. As the value and veracity of political information is subject to increased public skepticism based on its source, the military is by contrast a highly trusted institution whose representative fiigures continue to play a public role in politics. In this project, I examine not only the potential influence that such figures can have on public political attitudes, but how the credibility of the military and its elites as a source of information operates in an environment of partisan polarization, selective media exposure, rising acceptance of illiberal norms, and falling confidence in government and traditional expert communities. The dissertation that follows comprises three papers that incorporate original survey experimentation, observational time-series and social media data, text-as-data, and qualitative case studies in order to contribute to our general understanding of how politicization of the military affects - and is affected by - the credibility of military elites in the political information space. The first paper measures the potential political influence of military elites on public attitudes towards proposed military interventions. Using original survey experimentation, I build on previous knowledge of elite cuing and public attitudes for war by placing the political preferences of the military and the president in opposition, providing the military source a variety of mechanisms by which to challenge the stated preferences of the executive. Not only do I find that the military voice is a potentially influential one, but that this effect is tied considerably to impressions of the military elite as a credible source of information. Military elites, both active and retired, possess not just an independently powerful voice, but one that remains significant even when conditioning on the partisan identities of the president and the individual. The second paper envisions this concept of elite credibility not as a moderator, but as a dependent variable in its own right, seizing on the empirical puzzle presented by the partisan gap in expressed confidence for the military. Using time-series data and text-as-data on media reporting I find that partisans are likely to be exposed to widely different media environments when acquiring information on military institutional quality. Furthermore, using original survey experimentation, I find that even conditional on being presented with negative information on the military, partisans exhibit different pathologies in using it to update their impressions in a rational (Democrats, Independents) or biased (Republicans) fashion. The third paper takes this concept one step further, measuring not only the nature of elite credibility, but its limits. This chapter captures how partisan activism by military elites affects the perceived credibility of these figures and their parent institution. Using the results of original survey experimentation, I find that the public, contrary to much of the established literature on civil-military norms, is not normatively opposed to political activism by retired military elites. Instead, partisans asymmetrically - and significantly - reduce their estimations of credibility for military elites only on the other side of the political aisle. Using analysis of social media data for several prominent military elites, I further reveal an environment of weakened civil-military norms that is ripe for continued politicization into the future

Civil society and international governance: the role of non-state actors in the EU, Africa, Asia and Middle East

Structures and processes occurring within and between states are no longer the only – or even the most important - determinants of those political, economic and social developments and dynamics that shape the modern world. Many issues, including the environment, health, crime, drugs, migration and terrorism, can no longer be contained within national boundaries. As a result, it is not always possible to identify the loci for authority and legitimacy, and the role of governments has been called into question. \ud \ud Civil Society anf International Governance critically analyses the increasing impact of nongovernmental organisations and civil society on global and regional governance. Written from the standpoint of advocates of civil society and addressing the role of civil society in relation to the UN, the IMF, the G8 and the WTO, this volume assess the role of various non-state actors from three perspectives: theoretical aspects, civil society interaction with the European Union and civil society and regional governance outside Europe, specifically Africa, East Asia and the Middle East. It demonstrates that civil society’s role has been more complex than one defined in terms, essentially, of resistance and includes actual participation in governance as well as multi-facetted contributions to legitimising and democratising global and regional governance

Building on Progress - Expanding the Research Infrastructure for the Social, Economic, and Behavioral Sciences. Vol. 1

The publication provides a comprehensive compendium of the current state of Germany's research infrastructure in the social, economic, and behavioural sciences. In addition, the book presents detailed discussions of the current needs of empirical researchers in these fields and opportunities for future development. The book contains 68 advisory reports by more than 100 internationally recognized authors from a wide range of fields and recommendations by the German Data Forum (RatSWD) on how to improve the research infrastructure so as to create conditions ideal for making Germany's social, economic, and behavioral sciences more innovative and internationally competitive. The German Data Forum (RatSWD) has discussed the broad spectrum of issues covered by these advisory reports extensively, and has developed general recommendations on how to expand the research infrastructure to meet the needs of scholars in the social and economic sciences

Sustaining dairy

Dairy in Europe has undergone many changes in the last few years—the abolition of milk production quotas being a fundamental one. This study explores these changes in relation to the sustained social and environmental viability of the sector and how dairy processors' sustainability programs are a part of that. Regime change as outlined in transition theory enhanced through a sociological approach on actors informed this research. More specifically, the notion of obligatory passage points was used to explore the mechanisms through which dominant actors make certain actions mandatory and reify their status as indispensable. The thesis consists of three case studies: the dairy sectors in the Netherlands, Ireland and the United Kingdom. The cases trace the evolution of all sectors since the post-war era, outlining the dominant logic that has guided its development. The sustainability programs of three dairy processors—located in each of the case countries—are also part of the analysis. Data was collected through document analysis and semi-structured interviews. The analysis shows that the post-war logic based on the increase of scale and intensification of dairying has continued to shape the development of the sector through today. While the visible impacts of intensive dairy have led to adaptations to the dominant rules and practices, these changes have not been fundamental in nature. The analysis of dairy processors and their sustainability programs revealed that these programs can be an additional tool for compliance to legal standards and the alleviation of pressing societal concerns. However, processors address social and environmentally relevant dairy-related challenges when an effective link to profit can be established. These programs have been unable to ensure that the dairy sector operates within established environmental limits and societal expectations, while providing a stable livelihood for farmers. This research contributes to the understanding of sustainability (agri-food) transitions by identifying the mechanisms through which the regime adapts to the shifting environment and dominant actors strive for their own continuity. It also adds to the debate about the role that incumbent actors can have in sustainability transitions—their involvement is important but they are unable to guide such processes. This study advances the empirical ground in sustainability transition studies by focusing on systems in which change is less likely to be technologically driven and where social change plays a larger role. Finally, this thesis connects past development, current challenges, and present engagement in a discussion about the future development of the dairy sector; this adds to the further conceptualization of the complexity and co-evolutionary nature of sustainability transitions.</p

Mongolian state weakness, foreign policy, and dependency on the People’s Republic of China

This thesis draws on a synthesis of foreign policy analysis (FPA) and constructivism in order to demonstrate how post Cold War Mongolia’s relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) can be analysed through a multisectoral approach to explain the dilemmas that a weak state faces when conducting its relations with a much more powerful neighbour. It proposes that the dissonance between Mongolia’s social identity and its structures of governance is the basis for the Mongolian state’s weakness and that such weakness makes growing economic dependency on the PRC more difficult to manage. Moreover, the resulting combination of economic dependency and state weakness seriously limits the government’s ability to maintain an effective broader foreign policy. The dissertation draws on government texts, academic and media articles, and interviews in Mandarin Chinese, Mongolian, and English. The thesis looks in detail at the nature of Mongolian identity politics by focusing on identity development over la longue durée. It then demonstrates how the international community failed to take account of the dynamics of Mongolian identity politics when it came to assisting the Mongolian government with the country’s post Cold War transition from communism. This led to an undue reliance on what can be termed ‘Washington Consensus’ type political and economic reforms that considerably added to the weakness of the state. The thesis then focuses on Mongolia’s economic relations with the PRC to show how such state weakness has resulted in a relationship of growing dependency. Building on economic dependency theory, the thesis then further examines the implications of Mongolia-Sino relations from environmental, societal, and military perspectives. In conclusion, the dissertation argues that the division between the Mongolian state and society has been exacerbated by the country’s adherence to capitalism and democracy in ways that have created the potential for domestic instability by increasing the depth and breadth of economic dependence on the PRC. This imposes severe constraints on foreign policy options but has also demanded some imaginative innovations that give interesting insights into the measures a vulnerable state can take to maximise its international presence. Ultimately, however, the disjuncture between social identity and the state acts as a constraining factor on such initiatives in the case of Mongolia