Application of Chaos Theory in the Prediction of Motorised Traffic Flows on Urban Networks

In recent times, urban road networks are faced with severe congestion problems as a result of the accelerating demand for mobility. One of the ways to mitigate the congestion problems on urban traffic road network is by predicting the traffic flow pattern. Accurate prediction of the dynamics of a highly complex system such as traffic flow requires a robust methodology. An approach for predicting Motorised Traffic Flow on Urban Road Networks based on Chaos Theory is presented in this paper. Nonlinear time series modeling techniques were used for the analysis of the traffic flow prediction with emphasis on the technique of computation of the Largest Lyapunov Exponent to aid in the prediction of traffic flow. The study concludes that algorithms based on the computation of the Lyapunov time seem promising as regards facilitating the control of congestion because of the technique’s effectiveness in predicting the dynamics of complex systems especially traffic flow

The development and control of traffic jams caused by incidents in rectangular grid networks.

Urban traffic congestion is becoming a central issue in transport planning. If the present growth in car ownership and use continues, traffic jams are likely to increase in frequency and extent, particularly within the central areas of major cities. Whilst it is important to study the impact of congestion in the field, there is an urgent need for a fundamental understanding of the causes of congestion and the way in which it propagates. But, although a number of control schemes for controlling traffic congestion exist, no comprehensive rationale for an effective dispersal strategy has been developed. This research is mainly concerned with the properties of incident-induced traffic jams on rectangular grid networks, and possible measures for preventing and controlling them. The research investigates the underlying structure of such jams using a combination of theoretical and simulation models developed for this purpose. Using these models, gridlock is identified as a crucial stage in the evolution of traffic jams. However, most conventional traffic management measures aim to increase capacity and hence postpone the onset of gridlock and are unsuitable when gridlock has already set in. This thesis develops several alternative strategies for protecting networks from gridlock and dissipating traffic jams once they have formed. The treatment focuses on the installation of bans at specific network locations. The bans come in two forms: turn or ahead. Turn bans are imposed on selected links to break gridlock cycles at the nucleus of the traffic jam. By contrast, ahead bans are implemented around the traffic jam envelope to reduce input into critical sections of the road. The control strategies are tested extensively using the simulation model and as a result, some general control principles have emerged. These are not intended to be immediately applicable to real networks since they incorporate some simplifying assumptions. However, they point to certain characteristics of traffic jam growth and dispersal which would not be accessible in any other way

The dynamic interaction of land use and transport in a highly fragmented city: the case of Cape Town, South Africa

The need for more inclusive and integrated cities has resulted in a paradigm shift in the South African transport and land use policy environment where transport and land use planning are viewed as a continuum as opposed to isolated planning aspects. Issues such as residential segregation, social exclusion, spatial inefficiencies, inequality, residential informality, marginalisation of the low-income cohort continue to form part of the current planning discourse. While policy acknowledges the need to redress these issues, the urban spatial patterns in South African cities continue to trace the historical planning trajectory. Recently, congestion has become an issue in some of South Africa’s cities with Johannesburg and Cape Town appearing in the list of the top hundred most congested cities in the world. It is thus essential to understand how South African cities can address urban accessibility and mobility issues along with redressing apartheid spatial planning to attain sustainable cities that allow for inclusivity of all population groups. Like most South African cities, Cape Town is a relic of apartheid planning where the urban spatial patterns reinforce social exclusion among other issues. Urban and transport planning in Cape Town focuses on addressing issues of spatial inefficiencies, social exclusion, congestion due to rapid motorisation and the proliferation of informal settlements. It is against this backdrop that the central concern of this research is to understand urban dynamics linked to the spatiotemporal interaction of transport and land use in Cape Town to aid in the formulation of proactive urban policies. There is compelling evidence in the literature that dynamic integrated land use transport models provide an avenue through which the urban change process can be understood to aid in the development of adaptive land use and transport strategies. METRONAMICA, a dynamic land use transport model, is applied in this research to simulate and understand land use and transport change in Cape Town. A sequential stage-wise procedure was implemented to calibrate the model for the period 1995- 2005 and an independent validation was carried out from 2005 to 2010 to evaluate the model. Kappa statistic and its associated variants were applied to assess the ability of the land use model block to reproduce land use patterns while the EMME model and previous transport studies for Cape Town were used to evaluate the transport model. The results from the calibration and validation exercise show that the model can reproduce historical land use and transport patterns. The integration of the transport and land use model through accessibility improved the Kappa Simulation and Fuzzy Kappa Simulation. This showed that the model explained urban change better when land use and transport interacted compared to an independent land use model. This shows that accessibility can be employed in the Cape Town context to enhance the understanding of the urban change process. In addition to the Kappa statistics, the fractal dimension which measures the landscape complexity was used to assess the predictive accuracy of the model. The model performance revealed that the landscape patterns simulated by the model resemble observed land use patterns signifying a good calibration of the model. The calibrated land use transport model for the Cape Town Metropolitan region (CTMRLUT) was applied for policy scenarios. Three scenarios were simulated, specifically the business as usual (BAU), redressing social exclusion and the potential for in situ upgrading of informal settlements. The study found that intensive land use development along the Metro South East Integration Zone (MSEIZ) was linked to a reduction in commuting distances to economic activities which is in contrast to the BAU scenario. While these scenarios looked at the urban spatial patterns, the effect of land use patterns on congestion was also explored. The findings from the scenario simulations suggest that despite the reduction in distance to economic centres, the congestion condition in Cape Town will continue to deteriorate. Further, the findings indicate that interventions that only target land use developments are not sufficient to address congestion issues in Cape Town. Instead, to address the congestion problem in Cape Town, mixed land use and compact growth strategies need to be complemented with travel demand management strategies that target private car usage and intensive investment in transport infrastructure, especially rail, to facilitate the use of alternative modes. With regards to informal settlements, the study found that in situ upgrading could be a viable option to tackle some informal settlements. However, for proper inclusionary informal settlement policy, an approach that resonates with contextual realities would be more suitable to assess the viability of in situ upgrading based on the location of informal settlements relative to centres of economic activities. Additionally, the study revealed that instead of informal settlements locating as stand-alone settlements, some of them located adjacent to low-income housing which might be indicative of a growth in backyard shacks which is an existing housing trend in some lowincome suburbs in Cape Town. While this research has shown that integrating land use and transport in policy is potentially useful in solving urban issues, it has also revealed the value of urban modelling as a platform on which to assess the potential impacts of policies before their implementation. This is a strong case for the utilisation of decision support tools in land use and transport planning in contemporary South African cities

Performance Improvement of Wireless Network Based on Effective Data Transmission

A major requirement of any computer network is scalability. This can be as a result of increase in the number of users, upgrading due to technological advancement, additional services, or the need for performance improvement. This will inevitably require changing infrastructure, deploying new applications, and dealing with security which definitely touches both hardware and software, in the sense that, the complexities of the hardware, software and firmware increase with the attendant growth of the network and maintainability. However, for the network to remain reliable and efficient, it is necessary that, implementation and administration of it requires a means of monitoring both the model of the network structures and processes occurring in them. The efficiency and throughput of the network depend on improving the effectiveness of data transmission carried out by the network protocols. This paper discusses the use of a protocol to meet the technological challenge towards improving the performance and throughput of a wireless network based on effective data transmission

A Model of the Rise and Fall of Roads

Transportation network planning decisions made at one point of time can have profound impacts in the future. However, transportation networks are usually assumed tobe static in models of land use. A better understanding of the natural growth pattern of roads will provide valuable guidance to planners who try to shape the future network. This paper analyzes the relationships between network supply and travel demand, and describes a road development and degeneration mechanism microscopically at the linklevel. A simulation model of transportation network dynamics is developed, involving iterative evolution of travel demand patterns, network revenue policies, cost estimation,and investment rules. The model is applied to a real-world congesting network – the Twin Cities transportation network which comprises nearly 8,000 nodes and more than 20,000 links, using network data collected since year 1978. Four experiments are carried out with different initial conditions and constraints, the results from which allow us toexplore model properties such as computational feasibility, qualitative implications, potential calibration procedures, and predictive value. The hypothesis that roadhierarchies are emergent properties of transportation networks is confirmed, and the underlying reasons discovered. Spatial distribution of capacity, traffic flow, andcongestion in the transportation network is tracked over time. Potential improvements to the model in particular and future research directions in transportation network dynamicsin general are also discussed.Transportation network dynamics, Urban planning, Road suppl

Using network analysis to explore the effects of road network on traffic congestion and retail store sales

The physical road system plays a critical role in environmental and city planning. In the context of retail store site-selection, measures of accessibility and the ease and willingness of consumers to shop at a store can be essential to revenue generation and retail success. To quantify accessibility requires a detailed examination of the road networks and in many cases modelling to estimate potential traffic congestion that would inhibit accessibility. The application of network theory to assess the accessibility of road segments and land parcels is non-existent. Research on the effects of the structure of the road network, via network analysis, can facilitate identifying potential congestion issues and subsequently the effects of congestion on commercial performance (e.g., retail sales). The application of network analysis to a road network is distinctive from applications in other disciplines (e.g., sociology, ecology), since, among other network attributes, the road network is a low-dimension, link-centroid, and relatively static system with time-variant traffic flow. In addition to conceptually interrogating the difference between social and road networks for network analysis, the presented research results show the relationship among different network metrics and simulated traffic congestion and the strength of the relationship between network metrics and retail sales relative to socio-demographic and site-location characteristics