MeGARA: Menu-based Game Abstraction and Abstraction Refinement of Markov Automata

Markov automata combine continuous time, probabilistic transitions, and nondeterminism in a single model. They represent an important and powerful way to model a wide range of complex real-life systems. However, such models tend to be large and difficult to handle, making abstraction and abstraction refinement necessary. In this paper we present an abstraction and abstraction refinement technique for Markov automata, based on the game-based and menu-based abstraction of probabilistic automata. First experiments show that a significant reduction in size is possible using abstraction.Comment: In Proceedings QAPL 2014, arXiv:1406.156

Metamodel-based importance sampling for structural reliability analysis

Structural reliability methods aim at computing the probability of failure of systems with respect to some prescribed performance functions. In modern engineering such functions usually resort to running an expensive-to-evaluate computational model (e.g. a finite element model). In this respect simulation methods, which may require $10^{3-6}$ runs cannot be used directly. Surrogate models such as quadratic response surfaces, polynomial chaos expansions or kriging (which are built from a limited number of runs of the original model) are then introduced as a substitute of the original model to cope with the computational cost. In practice it is almost impossible to quantify the error made by this substitution though. In this paper we propose to use a kriging surrogate of the performance function as a means to build a quasi-optimal importance sampling density. The probability of failure is eventually obtained as the product of an augmented probability computed by substituting the meta-model for the original performance function and a correction term which ensures that there is no bias in the estimation even if the meta-model is not fully accurate. The approach is applied to analytical and finite element reliability problems and proves efficient up to 100 random variables.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables. Preprint submitted to Probabilistic Engineering Mechanic

Algorithms for Game Metrics

Simulation and bisimulation metrics for stochastic systems provide a quantitative generalization of the classical simulation and bisimulation relations. These metrics capture the similarity of states with respect to quantitative specifications written in the quantitative {\mu}-calculus and related probabilistic logics. We first show that the metrics provide a bound for the difference in long-run average and discounted average behavior across states, indicating that the metrics can be used both in system verification, and in performance evaluation. For turn-based games and MDPs, we provide a polynomial-time algorithm for the computation of the one-step metric distance between states. The algorithm is based on linear programming; it improves on the previous known exponential-time algorithm based on a reduction to the theory of reals. We then present PSPACE algorithms for both the decision problem and the problem of approximating the metric distance between two states, matching the best known algorithms for Markov chains. For the bisimulation kernel of the metric our algorithm works in time O(n^4) for both turn-based games and MDPs; improving the previously best known O(n^9\cdot log(n)) time algorithm for MDPs. For a concurrent game G, we show that computing the exact distance between states is at least as hard as computing the value of concurrent reachability games and the square-root-sum problem in computational geometry. We show that checking whether the metric distance is bounded by a rational r, can be done via a reduction to the theory of real closed fields, involving a formula with three quantifier alternations, yielding O(|G|^O(|G|^5)) time complexity, improving the previously known reduction, which yielded O(|G|^O(|G|^7)) time complexity. These algorithms can be iterated to approximate the metrics using binary search.Comment: 27 pages. Full version of the paper accepted at FSTTCS 200

Metamodel-based importance sampling for the simulation of rare events

In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In order to reduce the number of computer experiments, many other approaches known as reliability methods have been proposed. A certain approach consists in replacing the original experiment by a surrogate which is much faster to evaluate. Nevertheless, it is often difficult (or even impossible) to quantify the error made by this substitution. In this paper an alternative approach is developed. It takes advantage of the kriging meta-modeling and importance sampling techniques. The proposed alternative estimator is finally applied to a finite element based structural reliability analysis.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Preprint submitted to ICASP11 Mini-symposia entitled "Meta-models/surrogate models for uncertainty propagation, sensitivity and reliability analysis