Reducing statistical time-series problems to binary classification

We show how binary classification methods developed to work on i.i.d. data can be used for solving statistical problems that are seemingly unrelated to classification and concern highly-dependent time series. Specifically, the problems of time-series clustering, homogeneity testing and the three-sample problem are addressed. The algorithms that we construct for solving these problems are based on a new metric between time-series distributions, which can be evaluated using binary classification methods. Universal consistency of the proposed algorithms is proven under most general assumptions. The theoretical results are illustrated with experiments on synthetic and real-world data.Comment: In proceedings of NIPS 2012, pp. 2069-207

Generalized Sparse Discriminant Analysis for Event-Related Potential Classification

A brain computer interface (BCI) is a system which provides direct communication between the mind of a person and the outside world by using only brain activity (EEG). The event-related potential (ERP)-based BCI problem consists of a binary pattern recognition. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is widely used to solve this type of classification problems, but it fails when the number of features is large relative to the number of observations. In this work we propose a penalized version of the sparse discriminant analysis (SDA), called generalized sparse discriminant analysis (GSDA), for binary classification. This method inherits both the discriminative feature selection and classification properties of SDA and it also improves SDA performance through the addition of Kullback-Leibler class discrepancy information. The GSDA method is designed to automatically select the optimal regularization parameters. Numerical experiments with two real ERP-EEG datasets show that, on one hand, GSDA outperforms standard SDA in the sense of classification performance, sparsity and required computing time, and, on the other hand, it also yields better overall performances, compared to well-known ERP classification algorithms, for single-trial ERP classification when insufficient training samples are available. Hence, GSDA constitute a potential useful method for reducing the calibration times in ERP-based BCI systems.Fil: Peterson, Victoria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Investigación en Señales, Sistemas e Inteligencia Computacional. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas. Instituto de Investigación en Señales, Sistemas e Inteligencia Computacional; ArgentinaFil: Rufiner, Hugo Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Investigación en Señales, Sistemas e Inteligencia Computacional. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas. Instituto de Investigación en Señales, Sistemas e Inteligencia Computacional; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ingeniería; ArgentinaFil: Spies, Ruben Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada del Litoral; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería Química; Argentin

Solving for multi-class using orthogonal coding matrices

A common method of generalizing binary to multi-class classification is the error correcting code (ECC). ECCs may be optimized in a number of ways, for instance by making them orthogonal. Here we test two types of orthogonal ECCs on seven different datasets using three types of binary classifier and compare them with three other multi-class methods: 1 vs. 1, one-versus-the-rest and random ECCs. The first type of orthogonal ECC, in which the codes contain no zeros, admits a fast and simple method of solving for the probabilities. Orthogonal ECCs are always more accurate than random ECCs as predicted by recent literature. Improvments in uncertainty coefficient (U.C.) range between 0.4--17.5% (0.004--0.139, absolute), while improvements in Brier score between 0.7--10.7%. Unfortunately, orthogonal ECCs are rarely more accurate than 1 vs. 1. Disparities are worst when the methods are paired with logistic regression, with orthogonal ECCs never beating 1 vs. 1. When the methods are paired with SVM, the losses are less significant, peaking at 1.5%, relative, 0.011 absolute in uncertainty coefficient and 6.5% in Brier scores. Orthogonal ECCs are always the fastest of the five multi-class methods when paired with linear classifiers. When paired with a piecewise linear classifier, whose classification speed does not depend on the number of training samples, classifications using orthogonal ECCs were always more accurate than the the remaining three methods and also faster than 1 vs. 1. Losses against 1 vs. 1 here were higher, peaking at 1.9% (0.017, absolute), in U.C. and 39% in Brier score. Gains in speed ranged between 1.1% and over 100%. Whether the speed increase is worth the penalty in accuracy will depend on the application

Integer Echo State Networks: Hyperdimensional Reservoir Computing

We propose an approximation of Echo State Networks (ESN) that can be efficiently implemented on digital hardware based on the mathematics of hyperdimensional computing. The reservoir of the proposed Integer Echo State Network (intESN) is a vector containing only n-bits integers (where n<8 is normally sufficient for a satisfactory performance). The recurrent matrix multiplication is replaced with an efficient cyclic shift operation. The intESN architecture is verified with typical tasks in reservoir computing: memorizing of a sequence of inputs; classifying time-series; learning dynamic processes. Such an architecture results in dramatic improvements in memory footprint and computational efficiency, with minimal performance loss.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, 1 tabl

Neural nets - their use and abuse for small data sets

Neural nets can be used for non-linear classification and regression models. They have a big advantage over conventional statistical tools in that it is not necessary to assume any mathematical form for the functional relationship between the variables. However, they also have a few associated problems chief of which are probably the risk of over-parametrization in the absence of P-values, the lack of appropriate diagnostic tools and the difficulties associated with model interpretation. The first of these problems is particularly important in the case of small data sets. These problems are investigated in the context of real market research data involving non-linear regression and discriminant analysis. In all cases we compare the results of the non-linear neural net models with those of conventional linear statistical methods. Our conclusion is that the theory and software for neural networks has some way to go before the above problems will be solved