An analysis of involuntary excess reserves, monetary policy and risk-taking behaviour of Chinese banks

In this paper, we examine the effects of monetary policy on the risk-taking behaviour of Chinese banks in the presence of involuntary excess reserves based on a sample of 95 banks. We find that involuntary excess reserves lead to more aggressive risk-taking suggesting that large involuntary excess reserves stimulate the rapid expansion of credit and the price bubble in the Chinese financial market. However, banks with larger involuntary excess reserves tend to reduce risk-taking more rapidly under the tightening monetary policy regime. The paper sheds light on the effectiveness of government monetary policy in reducing the risk-taking behaviour of banks in an emerging market where involuntary excess reserves are present

Macroprudential policy and bank systemic risk

This paper investigates the effectiveness of macroprudential policy to contain the systemicrisk of European banks between 2000 and 2017. We use a new database (MaPPED) collected by experts at the ECB and national central banks with narrative informationon a broad range of instruments which are tracked over their life cycle. Using a dynamicpanel framework at a monthly frequency we assess the impact of macroprudential tools and their design on the banks’ systemic risk both in the short and the long run. We furthermore decompose the systemic risk measure in an individual bank risk component and a systemic linkage component. This is of particular interest because microprudential policy focuses on the tail risk of an individual bank while macroprudential policy targets systemic risk by addressing the interlinkages and common exposures across banks. In general, the announcements of macroprudential policy actions have a downward effect on bank systemic risk. On average, all banks benefit from macroprudential tools in terms oftheir individual risk. We find that credit growth tools and exposure limits exhibit the most pronounced downward effect on the individual risk component. However, we find evidence for a risk-shifting effect which is more pronounced for retail-oriented banks. The effects are heterogeneous across banks with respect to the systemic linkage component. Liquidity tools and measures aimed at increasing the resilience of banks decrease the systemic linkage of banks. Moreover, these tools appear to be most effective for distressed banks.Our results have implications for the optimal design of macroprudential instruments

On the Impact of Financial Inclusion on Financial Stability and Inequality: The Role of Macroprudential Policies

Financial Inclusion - access to financial products by households and firms - is one of the main albeit challenging priorities, both for Advanced Economies (AEs) as well as Emerging Markets (EMs), even more so for the latter. Financial inclusion facilitates consumption smoothing, lowers income inequality, enables risk diversification, and tends to positively affect economic growth. Financial stability is another rising priority among policy makers. This is evident in the re-emergence of macroprudential policies after the global financial crisis, minimizing systemic risk, particularly risks associated with rapid credit growth. However, there are significant policy tradeoffs that could exist between both financial inclusion and financial stability, with mixed evidence on the link between the two objectives. Given the importance of macroprudential policies as a toolbox to achieve financial stability, we examine the impact of macroprudential policies on financial inclusion - a potential cause for financial instability if not carefully implemented. Using panel regressions for 67 countries over the period 2000-2014, our results point to mixed effects of macroprudential policies. The usage (and tightening) of some tools, such as the debt-to-income ratio, appear to reduce financial inclusion whereas others, such as the required reserve ratio (RRR), increase it. Specifically, both institutional quality and financial development appear to increase the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on financial inclusion. Institutional quality helps macroprudential policies boost financial inclusion, with mixed effects as a result of financial development, but the results are more significant when we include either institutional quality or financial development. This leads us to believe that macroprudential policies conditional on better institutional quality and financial development improves financial inclusion. This has important policy implications for financial stability

Sudden stops and financial frictions : evidence from industry level data

The nature of the microeconomic frictions that transform sudden stops in output collapses is not only of academic interest, but also crucial for the correct design of policy responses to prevent and address these episodes and the lack of evidence on this regard is an important shortcoming. This paper uses industry-level data in a sample of 45 developed and emerging countries and a differences-in-differences methodology to provide evidence of the role of financial frictions for the consequences of sudden stops. The results show that, consistently with financial frictions being important, industries that are more dependent on external finance decline significantly more during a sudden stop, especially in less financially developed countries. The results are robust to controlling for other possible mechanisms, including labor market frictions. The paper also provides results on the role of comparative advantage during sudden stops and on the usefulness of various policy responses to attenuate the consequences of these shocks.Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Access to Finance,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Theory&Research

The economyc policy of fiscal consolidations: The european experience

This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal contractions, permanent improvements in public finances and short-run economic performance. The empirical evidence gathered from the European experience over the last three decades shows clearly that the composition of fiscal adjustments and the length of the period over which they are implemented influence their likelihood of success. Adjustments that concentrate on the expenditure side and unfold over a relatively long time span (three or four years) are more likely to succeed in reducing the public debt/GDP ratio than tax-based or shorter adjustments. Furthermore, macroeconomic consequences are strictly related to the achievement of fiscal success. On average, successful contractions do not trigger economic slowdowns, but unsuccessful adjustments usually do. This evidence is interpreted via the theory known as the expectation view of fiscal policy.Fiscal consolidation, public deficits, expansionary fiscal policy

Technology Catching-up and the Role of Institutions

The aim of the paper is to investigate the role played by differences in Institutional Quality on the process of technology catch-up across countries. Empirical evidence shows how countries endowed with better institutions are those experiencing higher TFP growth rates, faster rates of technology adoption and hence being those more rapidly closing the gap with the frontier. Conversely, countries lacking some minimum institutional level are shown to diverge in the long run and not to catch-up. Some institutions, however, play an ambiguous role in the creation and adoption of technology. We find that the tightening of Intellectual Property Rights reduces the ability of followers to freely imitate technology slowing down their catch-up rate. This negative effect is stronger the farther the countries are found from the frontier. Other institutional categories such as openness to trade, instead, benefit both leaders and followers.TFP, Growth, Institutions, IPRs

How Do Banks Set Interest Rates?

The aim of this paper is to study cross-sectional differences in banks interest rates. It adds to the existing literature in two ways. First, it analyzes in a systematic way both micro and macroeconomic factors that influence the price setting behavior of banks. Second, by using banks' prices (rather than quantities) it provides an alternative way to disentangle loan supply from loan demand shift in the bank lending channel' literature. The results, derived from a sample of Italian banks, suggest that heterogeneity in the banking rates pass-through exists only in the short run. Consistently with the literature for Italy, interest rates on shortterm lending of liquid and well-capitalized banks react less to a monetary policy shock. Also banks with a high proportion of long-term lending tend to change their prices less. Heterogeneity in the pass-through on the interest rate on current accounts depends mainly on banks' liability structure. Bank's size is never relevant.

Big bad banks ? the impact of U.S. branch deregulation on income distribution

Policymakers and economists disagree about the impact of bank regulations on the distribution of income. Exploiting cross-state and cross-time variation, the authors test whether liberalizing restrictions on intra-state branching in the United States intensified, ameliorated, or had no effect on income distribution. The analysis finds that branch deregulation lowered income inequality by affecting labor market conditions, not by boosting the business income of the poor, nor by enhancing educational attainment. Reductions in the earnings gap between men and women and between skilled and unskilled workers account for the bulk of the explained drop in income inequality.Emerging Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Inequality,,Fiscal&Monetary Policy