Chaotic dynamics and the role of covariance inflation for reduced rank Kalman filters with model error

The ensemble Kalman filter and its variants have shown to be robust for data assimilation in high dimensional geophysical models, with localization, using ensembles of extremely small size relative to the model dimension. However, a reduced rank representation of the estimated covariance leaves a large dimensional complementary subspace unfiltered. Utilizing the dynamical properties of the filtration for the backward Lyapunov vectors, this paper explores a previously unexplained mechanism, providing a novel theoretical interpretation for the role of covariance inflation in ensemble-based Kalman filters. Our derivation of the forecast error evolution describes the dynamic upwelling of the unfiltered error from outside of the span of the anomalies into the filtered subspace. Analytical results for linear systems explicitly describe the mechanism for the upwelling, and the associated recursive Riccati equation for the forecast error, while nonlinear approximations are explored numerically

Fully adaptive structure-preserving hyper-reduction of parametric Hamiltonian systems

Model order reduction provides low-complexity high-fidelity surrogate models that allow rapid and accurate solutions of parametric differential equations. The development of reduced order models for parametric nonlinear Hamiltonian systems is still challenged by several factors: (i) the geometric structure encoding the physical properties of the dynamics; (ii) the slowly decaying Kolmogorov $n$-width of conservative dynamics; (iii) the gradient structure of the nonlinear flow velocity; (iv) high variations in the numerical rank of the state as a function of time and parameters. We propose to address these aspects via a structure-preserving adaptive approach that combines symplectic dynamical low-rank approximation with adaptive gradient-preserving hyper-reduction and parameters sampling. Additionally, we propose to vary in time the dimensions of both the reduced basis space and the hyper-reduction space by monitoring the quality of the reduced solution via an error indicator related to the projection error of the Hamiltonian vector field. The resulting adaptive hyper-reduced models preserve the geometric structure of the Hamiltonian flow, do not rely on prior information on the dynamics, and can be solved at a cost that is linear in the dimension of the full order model and linear in the number of test parameters. Numerical experiments demonstrate the improved performances of the resulting fully adaptive models compared to the original and reduced order models

Nonlinear model order reduction via Dynamic Mode Decomposition

We propose a new technique for obtaining reduced order models for nonlinear dynamical systems. Specifically, we advocate the use of the recently developed Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD), an equation-free method, to approximate the nonlinear term. DMD is a spatio-temporal matrix decomposition of a data matrix that correlates spatial features while simultaneously associating the activity with periodic temporal behavior. With this decomposition, one can obtain a fully reduced dimensional surrogate model and avoid the evaluation of the nonlinear term in the online stage. This allows for an impressive speed up of the computational cost, and, at the same time, accurate approximations of the problem. We present a suite of numerical tests to illustrate our approach and to show the effectiveness of the method in comparison to existing approaches