Short-term Demand Forecasting for Online Car-hailing Services using Recurrent Neural Networks

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the crucial issues in intelligent transportation system, which is an important part of smart cities. Accurate predictions can enable both the drivers and the passengers to make better decisions about their travel route, departure time and travel origin selection, which can be helpful in traffic management. Multiple models and algorithms based on time series prediction and machine learning were applied to this issue and achieved acceptable results. Recently, the availability of sufficient data and computational power, motivates us to improve the prediction accuracy via deep-learning approaches. Recurrent neural networks have become one of the most popular methods for time series forecasting, however, due to the variety of these networks, the question that which type is the most appropriate one for this task remains unsolved. In this paper, we use three kinds of recurrent neural networks including simple RNN units, GRU and LSTM neural network to predict short-term traffic flow. The dataset from TAP30 Corporation is used for building the models and comparing RNNs with several well-known models, such as DEMA, LASSO and XGBoost. The results show that all three types of RNNs outperform the others, however, more simple RNNs such as simple recurrent units and GRU perform work better than LSTM in terms of accuracy and training time.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1706.06279, arXiv:1804.04176 by other author

Neural network approach for predicting drum pressure and level in coal-fired subcritical power plant

There is increasing need for tighter controls of coal-fired plants due to more stringent regulations and addition of more renewable sources in the electricity grid. Achieving this will require better process knowledge which can be facilitated through the use of plant models. Drum-boilers, a key component of coal-fired subcritical power plants, have complicated characteristics and require highly complex routines for the dynamic characteristics to be accurately modelled. Development of such routines is laborious and due to computational requirements they are often unfit for control purposes. On the other hand, simpler lumped and semi empirical models may not represent the process well. As a result, data-driven approach based on neural networks is chosen in this study. Models derived with this approach incorporate all the complex underlying physics and performs very well so long as it is used within the range of conditions on which it was developed. The model can be used for studying plant dynamics and design of controllers. Dynamic model of the drum-boiler was developed in this study using NARX neural networks. The model predictions showed good agreement with actual outputs of the drum-boiler (drum pressure and water level)

A hybrid neuro--wavelet predictor for QoS control and stability

For distributed systems to properly react to peaks of requests, their adaptation activities would benefit from the estimation of the amount of requests. This paper proposes a solution to produce a short-term forecast based on data characterising user behaviour of online services. We use \emph{wavelet analysis}, providing compression and denoising on the observed time series of the amount of past user requests; and a \emph{recurrent neural network} trained with observed data and designed so as to provide well-timed estimations of future requests. The said ensemble has the ability to predict the amount of future user requests with a root mean squared error below 0.06\%. Thanks to prediction, advance resource provision can be performed for the duration of a request peak and for just the right amount of resources, hence avoiding over-provisioning and associated costs. Moreover, reliable provision lets users enjoy a level of availability of services unaffected by load variations

PREDIKSI DATA HILANG MENGGUNAKAN NEURAL NETWORK

Fakta menunjukkan bahwa tidak semua data di lapangan merupakan data yang lengkap, sering kita jumpai adanya data yang hilang (missing data). Dalam penelitian ini, neural network (NN) dipilih sebagai metode untuk prediksi data hilang. NN adalah suatu sistem proses informasi yang mempunyai karakteristik tampilan seperti pada jaringan syaraf biologis. Dalam penerapannya NN mengandung sejumlah parameter (bobot) yang terbatas. Jumlah parameter yang optimal tergantung pada penentuan kombinasi yang tepat antara jumlah variabel input dan jumlah unit pada lapisan hidden. Untuk menentukan jumlah unit pada lapisan hidden didasarkan pada kriteria informasi MSE. Data yang digunakan berupa data lengkap, IHK periode Januari 2002 sampai dengan Januari 2007 (terdapat sebanyak 61 data). Data dieliminasi secara random sebanyak 5%, 10%, 15% dan 20% sebagai data hilang. Untuk prediksi data hilang dengan NN dilakukan pelatihan dari sebanyak 55 data pertama dikurangi banyaknya data hilang sehingga diperoleh model dengan bobot-bobot tertentu. Model ini selanjutnya akan digunakan untuk prediksi data hilang. Dari 5 data terakhir akan diketahui tingkat kebenaran NN dalam prediksi data IHK. Lebih lanjut, penulis membandingkan metode NN dengan metode yang lain, yaitu substitusi mean dan mean dua data terdekat. Kesimpulan yang diperoleh adalah metode NN memberikan MSE paling kecil dibandingkan dengan metode lain (mean dan mean dua data terdekat), dalam hal prediksi 5 data terakhir dari data IHK yang digunakan

Modeling The Intensity Function Of Point Process Via Recurrent Neural Networks

Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time interval. One expressive mathematical tool for modeling event is point process. The intensity functions of many point processes involve two components: the background and the effect by the history. Due to its inherent spontaneousness, the background can be treated as a time series while the other need to handle the history events. In this paper, we model the background by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with its units aligned with time series indexes while the history effect is modeled by another RNN whose units are aligned with asynchronous events to capture the long-range dynamics. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end. Our approach takes an RNN perspective to point process, and models its background and history effect. For utility, our method allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity which is often a pre-defined parametric form in point processes. Meanwhile end-to-end training opens the venue for reusing existing rich techniques in deep network for point process modeling. We apply our model to the predictive maintenance problem using a log dataset by more than 1000 ATMs from a global bank headquartered in North America.Comment: Accepted at Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI17

Innovative Second-Generation Wavelets Construction With Recurrent Neural Networks for Solar Radiation Forecasting

Solar radiation prediction is an important challenge for the electrical engineer because it is used to estimate the power developed by commercial photovoltaic modules. This paper deals with the problem of solar radiation prediction based on observed meteorological data. A 2-day forecast is obtained by using novel wavelet recurrent neural networks (WRNNs). In fact, these WRNNS are used to exploit the correlation between solar radiation and timescale-related variations of wind speed, humidity, and temperature. The input to the selected WRNN is provided by timescale-related bands of wavelet coefficients obtained from meteorological time series. The experimental setup available at the University of Catania, Italy, provided this information. The novelty of this approach is that the proposed WRNN performs the prediction in the wavelet domain and, in addition, also performs the inverse wavelet transform, giving the predicted signal as output. The obtained simulation results show a very low root-mean-square error compared to the results of the solar radiation prediction approaches obtained by hybrid neural networks reported in the recent literature