Bounding Counterfactuals under Selection Bias

Causal analysis may be affected by selection bias, which is defined as the systematic exclusion of data from a certain subpopulation. Previous work in this area focused on the derivation of identifiability conditions. We propose instead a first algorithm to address both identifiable and unidentifiable queries. We prove that, in spite of the missingness induced by the selection bias, the likelihood of the available data is unimodal. This enables us to use the causal expectation-maximisation scheme to obtain the values of causal queries in the identifiable case, and to compute bounds otherwise. Experiments demonstrate the approach to be practically viable. Theoretical convergence characterisations are provided.Comment: Eleventh International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM 2022

AI for Open Science: A Multi-Agent Perspective for Ethically Translating Data to Knowledge

AI for Science (AI4Science), particularly in the form of self-driving labs, has the potential to sideline human involvement and hinder scientific discovery within the broader community. While prior research has focused on ensuring the responsible deployment of AI applications, enhancing security, and ensuring interpretability, we also propose that promoting openness in AI4Science discoveries should be carefully considered. In this paper, we introduce the concept of AI for Open Science (AI4OS) as a multi-agent extension of AI4Science with the core principle of maximizing open knowledge translation throughout the scientific enterprise rather than a single organizational unit. We use the established principles of Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD) to formalize a language around AI4OS. We then discuss three principle stages of knowledge translation embedded in AI4Science systems and detail specific points where openness can be applied to yield an AI4OS alternative. Lastly, we formulate a theoretical metric to assess AI4OS with a supporting ethical argument highlighting its importance. Our goal is that by drawing attention to AI4OS we can ensure the natural consequence of AI4Science (e.g., self-driving labs) is a benefit not only for its developers but for society as a whole.Comment: NeurIPS AI For Science Workshop 2023. 11 pages, 2 figure

Identifying Causal Effects via Context-specific Independence Relations

Peer reviewe

Selection Induced Collider Bias: A Gender Pronoun Uncertainty Case Study

In this paper, we cast the problem of task underspecification in causal terms, and develop a method for empirical measurement of spurious associations between gender and gender-neutral entities for unmodified large language models, detecting previously unreported spurious correlations. We then describe a lightweight method to exploit the resulting spurious associations for prediction task uncertainty classification, achieving over 90% accuracy on a Winogender Schemas challenge set. Finally, we generalize our approach to address a wider range of prediction tasks and provide open-source demos for each method described here.Comment: 16 pages, 21 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2208.1006