The Dawn of Multi-Messenger Astronomy

The recent discoveries of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos and gravitational waves have opened new windows of exploration to the Universe. Combining neutrino observations with measurements of electromagnetic radiation and cosmic rays promises to unveil the sources responsible for the neutrino emission and to help solve long-standing problems in astrophysics such as the origin of cosmic rays. Neutrino observations may also help localize gravitational-wave sources, and enable the study of their astrophysical progenitors. In this work we review the current status and future plans for multi-messenger searches of neutrino sources.Comment: To appear in "Neutrino Astronomy- Current status, future prospects", Eds. T. Gaisser & A. Karle (World Scientific

Uncovering the Temporal Dynamics of Diffusion Networks

Time plays an essential role in the diffusion of information, influence and disease over networks. In many cases we only observe when a node copies information, makes a decision or becomes infected -- but the connectivity, transmission rates between nodes and transmission sources are unknown. Inferring the underlying dynamics is of outstanding interest since it enables forecasting, influencing and retarding infections, broadly construed. To this end, we model diffusion processes as discrete networks of continuous temporal processes occurring at different rates. Given cascade data -- observed infection times of nodes -- we infer the edges of the global diffusion network and estimate the transmission rates of each edge that best explain the observed data. The optimization problem is convex. The model naturally (without heuristics) imposes sparse solutions and requires no parameter tuning. The problem decouples into a collection of independent smaller problems, thus scaling easily to networks on the order of hundreds of thousands of nodes. Experiments on real and synthetic data show that our algorithm both recovers the edges of diffusion networks and accurately estimates their transmission rates from cascade data.Comment: To appear in the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2011. Website: http://www.stanford.edu/~manuelgr/netrate

Collaborative Inference of Coexisting Information Diffusions

Recently, \textit{diffusion history inference} has become an emerging research topic due to its great benefits for various applications, whose purpose is to reconstruct the missing histories of information diffusion traces according to incomplete observations. The existing methods, however, often focus only on single information diffusion trace, while in a real-world social network, there often coexist multiple information diffusions over the same network. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called Collaborative Inference Model (CIM) for the problem of the inference of coexisting information diffusions. By exploiting the synergism between the coexisting information diffusions, CIM holistically models multiple information diffusions as a sparse 4th-order tensor called Coexisting Diffusions Tensor (CDT) without any prior assumption of diffusion models, and collaboratively infers the histories of the coexisting information diffusions via a low-rank approximation of CDT with a fusion of heterogeneous constraints generated from additional data sources. To improve the efficiency, we further propose an optimal algorithm called Time Window based Parallel Decomposition Algorithm (TWPDA), which can speed up the inference without compromise on the accuracy by utilizing the temporal locality of information diffusions. The extensive experiments conducted on real world datasets and synthetic datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of CIM and TWPDA

A data-driven analysis to question epidemic models for citation cascades on the blogosphere

Citation cascades in blog networks are often considered as traces of information spreading on this social medium. In this work, we question this point of view using both a structural and semantic analysis of five months activity of the most representative blogs of the french-speaking community.Statistical measures reveal that our dataset shares many features with those that can be found in the literature, suggesting the existence of an identical underlying process. However, a closer analysis of the post content indicates that the popular epidemic-like descriptions of cascades are misleading in this context.A basic model, taking only into account the behavior of bloggers and their restricted social network, accounts for several important statistical features of the data.These arguments support the idea that citations primary goal may not be information spreading on the blogosphere.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, to be published in ICWSM-13 proceeding

Quantifying Self-Organization with Optimal Wavelets

The optimal wavelet basis is used to develop quantitative, experimentally applicable criteria for self-organization. The choice of the optimal wavelet is based on the model of self-organization in the wavelet tree. The framework of the model is founded on the wavelet-domain hidden Markov model and the optimal wavelet basis criterion for self-organization which assumes inherent increase in statistical complexity, the information content necessary for maximally accurate prediction of the system's dynamics. At the same time the method, presented here for the one-dimensional data of any type, performs superior denoising and may be easily generalized to higher dimensions.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure